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Futures News on October 11, one working day before and after the National Day, plastic products rose overall, PP, PE rose by about 200 yuan/ton, downstream BOPP, CPP rose by 200-400 yuan/ton, and downstream tape mother rolls rose by 300-500 yuan/ton; however, the rise retreated instantly on the 9th, and some markets have already seen a downward trend. Zhuochuang analysts believe that there are the following influencing factors. First, the main reason for the price increase is driven by macro market news. The news of "interest rate cuts" and "reservation cuts" before the holiday boosted the confidence of market traders; second, the five consecutive increases in international oil prices during the National Day gave the market a strong boost, and the market had a good start after the holiday; third, after the sharp rise in prices, the market orders were limited, and the buying support was insufficient, coupled with the futures turning downward and crude oil falling from highs. This week, the macro positives have dissipated, and the market has returned to fundamentals. It is expected that the plastic market will be consolidated after the rise, and some products will fall back from highs.Futures reported on October 11 that the average price of asphalt in the country was 3,717.52 yuan/ton in the week after the holiday, up 3.90 yuan/ton or 0.1% from before the holiday. The price of asphalt rebounded, and the spot prices of asphalt in major domestic regions fluctuated significantly. Forecast: Next week, the fundamentals are limited, and the uncertainty of crude oil is relatively large. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate slightly with crude oil, and the fluctuation range will be 3,680-3,720 yuan/ton. 1. From the demand perspective, next week, the Northeast, Northwest and northern North China will focus on rushing to work before the temperature drops. The rigid demand for asphalt in the north will still perform well, and the demand in other regions may be relatively stable. 2. From the supply perspective, the adjustment of the tax deduction policy for diluted asphalt has not been implemented, and the negative impact on the production link of local asphalt refining is limited. It is expected that the operating rate will gradually increase, and the asphalt output will increase gradually, which is bearish for the spot market. 3. From a policy perspective, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the morning of October 12 to introduce the situation of "strengthening the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic development". The incremental fiscal policy this year may boost the commodity market including asphalt. 4. In terms of cost, there is still uncertainty in the conflict in the Middle East. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely next week. The average price of US crude oil is US$72 per barrel, and the fluctuation range is between US$70-75 per barrel. The uncertainty is relatively large, which has a strong impact on the spot price of asphalt.Futures News on October 11: As of October 10, the mainstream price of 6517 silicon manganese was 6200-63500 yuan/ton, down 5.21% month-on-month. After the holiday, silicon manganese futures showed both high and low trends, and the spot price was willing to rise. The current market fundamentals game is still going on, and the industry is cautious in operation. The implementation of the price increase of raw coke and the high trend of futures have brought certain confidence to the silicon manganese market. In the near future, the release of downstream demand may be expected to be improved to a certain extent, stimulating the enthusiasm of steel mills to produce, and the willingness to inquire about alloy purchases may increase. In the short term, the silicon manganese market is in a wait-and-see mood, and it is still necessary to follow up and pay attention to the performance of the market and the latest progress of steel recruitment to give the market clearer signals.Futures News on October 11, Ansteel adjusted its product price policy for November 2024 based on the "Product Price Policy for October 2024" as follows: Hot-rolled steel increased by 500 yuan/ton. Cold-rolled steel increased by 500 yuan/ton, medium and thick plates increased by 500 yuan/ton. Wire rod increased by 500 yuan/ton. Rebar increased by 500 yuan/ton.Futures news on October 11, according to Wind data, as of the week of October 11, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig farming was 305.91 yuan/head, and the profit on September 27 was 368.14 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 47.27 yuan/head, and the profit on September 27 was 185.28 yuan/head.

Stock Market Psychology: Critical Concepts Every Trader Should Understand

Drake Hampton

Mar 23, 2022 16:10

Stock market psychology is the capacity to recognize and manage the emotions and behaviors that may arise during trading. While the stock market is a forward-looking gauge of expectations for corporate profits performance, it is frequently influenced by variables affecting both individual and collective trading psychology.

 

Three criteria to consider are the following:

 

  • Investor sentiment

  • Sentiment in the market

  • Fear or greed are examples of emotions.

 

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the critical nature of trading psychology in the stock market and to give further information and advice on how to handle it. Our guide to stock trading for beginners provides an overview of the stock market.

 

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The Importance Of Psychology In Stock Market Trading 

While the impact of psychology in the stock market is sometimes underestimated, being able to detect and handle these psychological elements may be tremendously useful for a trader. Individually, illogical financial decisions are frequently motivated by emotions such as anxiety, greed, and the fear of losing out (FOMO in trading). Crowd psychology, on the other hand, contributes to significant market fluctuations by eliciting emotions and resulting in fear-based trading.

 

A case in point of this is a worldwide pandemic. When fear levels rise, stock market volatility frequently follows. Volatility increases are typically followed by one of two emotions: fear or FOMO. Pessimism appears to exert a stronger influence on volatility than optimism. Fear frequently results in 'panic selling,' as traders hurry to quit deals in order to avoid more losses.

 

Market sentiment is an excellent indicator of volatility since it is used to determine how investors view a market at any particular time. When traders believe the market to be bearish, there will be more selling than buyers, implying a negative crowd psychology.

 

Stock indices are the most direct indication of audience psychology for equities. A stock index measures the performance of a group of stocks within a certain country or market. The major stock indexes are used to compare the returns on various assets and to follow the broader economy via the index's performance.

 

Once a trader has a firm grasp on both personal and group psychology, it is critical for the trader to control emotions appropriately. While some emotions should be welcomed, the negative impacts of trade psychology on investing decisions are often bigger than the favorable benefits of positive psychology.

 

Fear and greed may be detrimental to traders by pushing them to behave rashly. When a trader exits a position early, this is an example of fear-based trading. Dread may also manifest as greed when traders maintain losing positions for an extended length of time out of fear of incurring a loss.

 

To gain from stock market psychology, a trader must embrace good psychological variables while seeking to moderate negative psychological factors.

Five Techniques for Managing Your Emotions When Trading Stocks

1. Create a trading strategy

A trading strategy serves as a guide for traders throughout the trading process. It is a collection of rules that specifies the circumstances that must be satisfied before a trade is initiated, the markets on which the transaction should be executed, and when the trades should be exited. A trading strategy's objective is to guarantee that the trader remains accountable and adheres to the plan.

2. Develop a check list

Having a trading strategy is one thing; adhering to it is quite another when deals go against you. Having a concise checklist on hand guarantees that the trader follows the trading plan's guidelines throughout the trading process.

3. Maintain a notebook

As a trader, it is critical to evaluate your performance and discover areas for development. A diary is an excellent tool for this, since it enables a trader to keep track of all transactions and determine what worked and what didn't. Occasionally, a diary will reveal flaws in a trading plan or approach that must be corrected.

4. Establish reasonable expectations and foster confidence

Building confidence may be challenging, especially during the early phases of a strategy's testing. Confidence is critical because it enables a trader to take measured risks and accept the consequences of those risks. This is because a confident trader is typically aware of their own trading psychology and has established strategies to handle it. One strategy to develop trading confidence while also learning about trading psychology is to trade on a demo account. The objective is to establish reasonable expectations and to use the demo account as though it were real money.

5. Utilize risk management techniques

A trader cannot afford to overlook risk management. Calculating risk/reward ratios, using stop losses, and trading in small increments are all critical components of a sound risk management approach.

Is trading psychology applicable just to the stock market?

Trading psychology is universal in nature, encompassing all financial markets and instruments. Emotions will always play a role regardless of the instrument traded, which is why it is critical to have measures in place that keep you focused on your goals regardless of your emotions.