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Real-time News
1. Monday: ① Data: Swiss December Consumer Confidence Index; Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index; China December M2 Money Supply Annual Rate (TBD); ② Event: G7 Finance Ministers Meeting; ③ Holiday: Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for Coming of Age Day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction winning rate and bid-to-cover ratio up to January 12; Japan November Trade Balance; US December NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; US December Unadjusted CPI Annual Rate, Seasonally Adjusted CPI Monthly Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Monthly Rate, Unadjusted Core CPI Annual Rate; October New Home Sales Annualized Data; ② Event: Speeches by Fed Chairs Williams, Bostic, and Musalaim; South Korean President Lee Jae-myung visits Japan and holds a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, until January 14; ③ Earnings Report: JPMorgan Chase. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US weekly API crude oil inventories; US November retail sales month-on-month rate, US November PPI Q3 current account, October business inventories month-on-month rate, December existing home sales annualized data, weekly API and EIA crude oil inventories; China December trade balance; ② Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; 2026 FOMC voting members, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Fed Governor Milan, etc. deliver speeches; OPEC releases monthly oil market report; ③ Earnings reports: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo. 4. Thursday: ① Data: UK November three-month GDP month-on-month rate, November manufacturing output month-on-month rate, November seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, November industrial production month-on-month rate; France December CPI final month-on-month rate; Germany 2025 full-year GDP growth rate; Eurozone November seasonally adjusted trade balance, November industrial production month-on-month rate; Canada November wholesale sales month-on-month rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, January New York Fed Manufacturing Index, January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, November import price index month-on-month rate; EIA natural gas storage for the week; ② Events: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book; 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams, etc., deliver speeches; European Central Bank releases economic bulletin; Bank of Korea announces interest rate decision; US and Japanese defense ministers hold summit in Washington; ③ Earnings reports: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock. 5. Friday: ① Data: Germanys final December CPI month-on-month rate; US December industrial production month-on-month rate, January NAHB housing market index; ② Event: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on Virginias economic outlook. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US weekly total oil rig count; ② Event: Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks; Italian Prime Minister Meloni visits South Korea from January 17th to 19th.Microsoft (MSFT.O): Claude in Microsoft Foundry enhances its capabilities for healthcare and life sciences customers.1. The Russian Ministry of Defense says it has taken control of Belogorye in the Zaporizhzhia region. 2. According to TASS: Russian troops attacked a Ukrainian defense company and energy facilities. 3. The Ukrainian military says it struck three Lukoil oil rigs in the Caspian Sea. 4. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova says Ukraine carried out terrorist attacks on civilians in several regions of the Russian Federation on January 10. 5. The Hungarian Foreign Minister says the deployment of British and French troops to Ukraine will endanger Hungary. 6. The British Ministry of Defence says it is developing a new missile, "Nightfall," with a range exceeding 500 kilometers for Kyiv.On January 12th, the Israeli Prime Ministers Office announced via social media that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated at the start of his weekly government meeting that Israel is closely monitoring the situation in Iran. That afternoon, Netanyahu convened consultations with his senior advisors and several ministers on security issues. The Israeli security cabinet is scheduled to hold a plenary meeting on the 13th.January 12th - Bond investors overall bets on the Federal Reserves policy path and the direction of the US Treasury market in 2026 appear to have room for further expansion. Last Fridays non-farm payroll report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, maintaining market expectations for further Fed rate cuts. This result confirms market expectations that short-term Treasury bonds (most sensitive to monetary policy) will outperform long-term Treasury bonds this year, widening the yield spread between the two. This strategy, known as the "steepening trade," was one of the most popular bond trades for most of last year and continues to work at the start of 2026. Pramod Atrouli, fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group, stated, "There are many scenarios over the next 12 to 24 months that are very favorable for the yield curve steepening trade." An analysis of 25 of the largest actively managed core bond funds by JPMorgan shows that, historically, these funds still have a high exposure to this trade.

Technical Analysis

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