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On March 21, according to the US-based "War Zone" website, the Pentagon confirmed that a US F-35A fighter jet operating over Iran made an emergency return and landed at an undisclosed US military airfield in the Middle East. Video released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows the stealth fighter jet being attacked. Foreign media reports suggest this may be the first time an F-35 has been hit in combat since its introduction, setting a new world record for air combat.On March 21, German Chancellor Merz stated at an event in Bad Duckheim, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, on March 20 that he had intended to invite US President Trump to the local wine festival in 2026, but he was unsure if Trump would be willing to attend because Trump is currently "not very happy" with him. Furthermore, Merz said that Germany currently holds "completely different views" from the US on some issues. He also stated that the "Make America Great Again" movement is unrelated to other countries, and that Germany holds different views on American culture, media products, and some democratic ideals.On March 21, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement saying that Iran recently launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel. IDF rescue forces stated that Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel, causing damage to three locations in Rishon LeZion.March 21 (Tasnim News Agency) – Iran has warned residents of Ras Al Khaimah in the United Arab Emirates, urging them to evacuate via designated routes. The report stated that Ras Al Khaimah is likely to become a target in the near future, given its use in operations against Iranian islands. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps posted on social media that Ras Al Khaimah would suffer severe damage if Iranian islands were attacked again from the UAE.March 21 – The Ukrainian National News Agency reported today (March 21) that a Ukrainian delegation has arrived in Miami, Florida, and will hold bilateral talks with US representatives that day. The Ukrainian delegation includes Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council; Budanov, Chief of Staff of the Presidential Office; Kislitsa, First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Office; and Allakhamia, Chairman of the Parliamentary Faction of the Servant of the People Party. The US delegation includes US Presidential Envoy Witkov and Jared Kushner, former senior White House advisor and Trumps son-in-law. This is reportedly the first bilateral meeting between Ukraine and the US since the large-scale military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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