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May 6th - The railways May Day holiday transport season, which began on April 29th, concluded today. According to the China State Railway Group, the eight-day national railway May Day holiday transport period saw approximately 158 million passenger trips, with several indicators setting new records. This years May Day holiday coincided with the spring break for primary and secondary school students across the country, resulting in strong demand for travel, family visits, and leisure activities. Railway passenger traffic remained high, with long-distance travel dominating at the beginning and end of the holiday and short-distance travel dominating in the middle.On May 6th, the State Administration of Radio and Television (SART) convened a mobilization meeting to address the issue of copyright infringement in the dissemination of television dramas. The meeting pointed out that copyright infringement in the dissemination of television dramas (including online dramas) seriously harms the legitimate rights and interests of producers and broadcasters, and undermines the healthy and sustainable development of the radio and television industry. SART, based on its industry management responsibilities, will work with the National Copyright Administration and other relevant regulatory departments to strengthen the primary responsibility of online platforms and focus on addressing the problem of copyright infringement of television dramas on illegal websites, browsers, search engines, and cloud storage services.On May 6th, at the 2026 Global Digital Cooperation Exchange Conference and Global Data Week, which opened in Shanghai, it was learned that under the guidance of the National Data Administration, Shanghai, as one of the first pilot cities for international cooperation in the data field, officially launched the Shanghai Comprehensive Pilot Program for International Cooperation in the National Data Field. This pilot program focuses on six major areas and 17 specific tasks, aiming towards 2030. Shanghai is committed to building a new international data cooperation system characterized by leading infrastructure, mutual recognition of rules, empowering platforms, and integrated scenarios. It closely adheres to releasing the value of data, promoting the digital economy, and advancing digital export services, creating a working pattern of "a new high-standard cross-border data foundation, a new high-quality system of mutual recognition of rules, a new high-level international cooperation platform, and a new highly collaborative export service ecosystem," exploring innovations for participating in global digital governance and promoting the convenient cross-border flow of data.May 6th, Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: Brent crude oil futures have continued to fall sharply in recent intraday trading, breaking below the short-term minor upward trend line. Although it has reached oversold levels, it may still fall further in the near term and may rebound with support at the 50-day moving average, thereby curbing the decline and potentially experiencing some upward rebound to recover some of the previous losses.May 6th Futures News: Economies.com analysts latest view: WTI crude oil futures prices fell in the latest intraday trading, breaking below the short-term uptrend line and the 50-day moving average support, exacerbating downward pressure and suggesting further declines in the short term, especially after losing key technical support levels. On the other hand, some positive signals are emerging; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has begun to show a bullish crossover after reaching oversold levels, which may provide an opportunity for prices to stabilize or consolidate.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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