EUR/USD 1.13717
0.041%
Gold 4060.34
-0.397%
Oil 80.741
-0.529%
USD/JPY 163.761
0.016%
GBP/USD 1.32918
0.031%
GBP/JPY 217.673
0.068%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
July 28 - According to Axios, senior U.S. officials believe that economic sanctions could ultimately cause more damage to the Tehran regime than a military strike. U.S. intelligence and open-source media reports point to a deepening economic crisis within Iran, including gasoline shortages in one of the worlds richest oil-producing nations. A senior U.S. government official stated, "The Iranians want to stop being bombed, and they want money. But the priorities are almost reversed—their real priority is money." Another U.S. official acknowledged that sanctions and a naval blockade would take much longer than bombing to force Tehran back to the negotiating table—and Trump has so far not approved a full-scale bombing campaign. This extended front could increase the political risk for Republicans, forcing them to defend an unpopular war and high oil prices during the midterm election campaign.Japans Topix index fell further to 2%.According to Axios, U.S. officials believe that economic sanctions could cause more harm to Iran than bombing.July 28 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 2.9%, mainly reflecting the plunge in crude oil futures following the pause in the US-Iran conflict. Oil prices fell to their lowest point in a week on Monday. The USs sudden suspension of airstrikes against Iran over the weekend boosted hopes for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, de-escalation, and the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Agricultural product prices are typically influenced by the energy market, especially given the rapid growth in demand for agricultural products in biofuel production. One analyst stated that improved weather in the US Midwest was also a factor contributing to the plunge in futures prices. Commodity Weather Group indicated that temperatures in the Midwest are expected to ease after the weekends high temperatures, and upcoming rainfall will help alleviate drought pressures in agricultural areas.July 28 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed sharply lower on Monday, with the benchmark contract down 3.4%, hitting a two-week low, mainly dragged down by a plunge in crude oil futures. Crude oil prices plummeted in response to the Trump administrations suspension of the war on Iraq, hoping to reach a peaceful solution through diplomatic means and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Brent crude futures fell nearly 9% that day. Soybean oil is a key raw material for biofuel production and is therefore frequently affected by fluctuations in the crude oil market.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


Suggestion