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1. According to Al Arabiya TV: Oman and Iran will soon issue a joint statement on the transit corridor in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. USDA data shows that for the week ending July 30, net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year in the United States were 32,000 tons, significantly lower than the market expectation of 100,000-400,000 tons, compared to 302,000 tons the previous week; export shipments were 346,000 tons, compared to 490,000 tons the previous week. 3. According to USDA agricultural drought monitoring data, as of August 4, 2026, the drought rate in U.S. soybean producing areas was 26%, unchanged from the previous week; compared to 3% in the same period last year, an increase of 23 percentage points. 4. USDA data shows that private exporters reported selling 122,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 5. According to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysian palm oil production is estimated to have increased by 7.54% from July 1-31. Production in Peninsular Malaysia increased by 12.63% month-on-month, Borneo by 1.48%, Sabah by 0.77%, and Sarawak by 7.78%. 6. The World Gold Council: Global gold ETFs attracted $3 billion in inflows in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows, bringing total assets under management to $530 billion; holdings increased by 23 tons to 4,068 tons. 7. The CEO of Albemarle, a global lithium giant, stated that global lithium inventories are low, and the lithium spot market remains tight due to weak supply failing to meet the growing demand from electric vehicles and battery storage. The company raised its 2026 battery storage production forecast by 11% and its lower limit for the 2030 global lithium demand forecast by 100,000 metric tons. 8. Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Crushers Association (SPPOMA) shows that from August 1st to 5th, 2026, Malaysian palm oil yield per hectare decreased by 9.3% compared to the same period last month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.18% compared to the same period last month, and production decreased by 8.35% compared to the same period last month. 9. Data released by the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica) shows that in June, sugarcane crushing volume in Brazils central-southern region was 69.791 million tons, compared to 81.622 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%; sugar production was 3.903 million tons, compared to 5.298 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 26.33%. 10. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending July 31st, total U.S. natural gas inventories were 3.117 trillion cubic feet, an increase of 33 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a decrease of 12 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, and 195 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 6.7%. 11. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against any aggressive actions against Yemen and its people, or they would face the consequences of any escalation.A Republican senator has proposed repealing Californias vehicle emissions regulations.The Houthi rebels in Yemen advised those who have been deceived or misled by Yemeni leaders to leave enemy camps in Saudi Arabia and return home before it is too late.U.S. EIA natural gas storage for the week ending July 31 was 33 billion cubic feet, compared with an expected 30 billion cubic feet and a previous reading of 28 billion cubic feet.The U.S. EIA natural gas storage data for the week ending July 31 will be released in ten minutes.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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