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On August 15th, regarding the issue of non-Shanghai residents purchasing homes for replacement purposes, a staff member at the Shanghai Real Estate Transaction Center hotline stated that no new policies have been introduced. According to the hotline staff, non-Shanghai resident families who sell their only property can exchange it for one more home within the city, provided the ownership remains the same before and after. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since May 28, 2024. For non-Shanghai resident families or single adults selling some of their properties (i.e., owning two or more properties), when purchasing a new home, the number and location of the new home must match the previously sold property—if a property is sold outside the outer ring road, it can only be purchased outside the outer ring road; if a property is sold within the outer ring road, it can only be purchased within the outer ring road. No social security or individual income tax certificates are required. This policy has been in effect since February 26, 2026. Regarding home purchases and exchanges by foreign individuals, hotline staff stated that foreign individuals who sell all their properties in Shanghai can exchange them for and purchase one additional home in the city without submitting a foreigners residence permit (work category), a Shanghai employment contract valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase, or proof of social security and individual income tax payments valid for at least one consecutive year prior to the date of purchase. However, they still need to sign a commitment letter for self-occupancy of the property. This policy will take effect on July 29, 2026.On August 15th, a rare occurrence this week was Jensen Huang joining forces with six Wall Street asset management giants to endorse the idea of "developing AI computing power into an independent asset class." Analysts believe this is Huang putting his "meta-economics" into practice, signifying that the AI hype is extending from a technology race to a capital race. However, this latest plan has also sparked investor concerns about "revolving financing" and debt risks. Faced with these questions, Huang personally reassured the market again. He stated that Nvidia might "provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for individual investment projects" and would carefully evaluate each project. Market sentiment subsequently eased slightly.August 15th - According to Lighthouse Pro, as of August 15th, the total box office (including pre-sales) for August 2026 has exceeded 3 billion yuan. Spider-Man: New Day, Welcome to Dragon Restaurant, Eight Immortals, Odyssey, and Kung Fu Soccer are currently ranked in the top five at the August box office.According to Irans Press TV, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon have killed seven people and injured three.Ukrainian President Zelensky: The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian military airbase in Nizhny Novgorod and Russian oil facilities in Ust-Luga.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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