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As of 10:23 on August 24, in terms of capital inflows into domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2610 saw an inflow of 1.004 billion yuan, Shanghai Copper 2610 saw an inflow of 933 million yuan, and Lithium Carbonate 2701 saw an inflow of 856 million yuan. In terms of capital outflows, CSI 1000 2609 saw an outflow of 7.601 billion yuan, CSI 2609 saw an outflow of 4.226 billion yuan, and CSI 2609 saw an outflow of 3.337 billion yuan.Gold prices rose to their highest level in over three months on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, as market focus shifted to key US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs speech later this week. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said gold started the week strongly, regaining buying support, primarily driven by a weaker dollar. The market is also paying closer attention to signals that rising yields may signal underlying economic pressures and policy uncertainty. The market will be watching the July PCE price index and Warshs speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this week for new clues about the interest rate outlook. "Traders will be closely watching for any changes in his tone regarding the policy path and how that rhetoric resonates with recent bond market movements. A balanced or cautious tone, leaving room for policy flexibility, could open the door for further gains in gold prices."August 24th - US long-term interest rates are rising, currently at levels roughly equivalent to those before the 2008 global financial crisis. Moodys Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated that the Iran war is the primary reason driving up long-term interest rates. However, he added that the Federal Reserve is also a contributing factor. Fed Chairman Warsh seems to believe that the Fed should not comment on forward guidance or even its policy response function, which is also pushing up long-term interest rates. Because this approach increases uncertainty, bond investors are demanding higher yields as compensation.Data from the UK National Grid shows that the Hisham 2-7 nuclear reactors have been restored to grid operation after being shut down.On August 24th, it was reported that the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standardization Administration) has released over 2,800 national standards this year, of which over 1,400 are for emerging industries, accounting for more than 50%, effectively supporting the vigorous development of new productive forces. Specifically, the new generation information technology industry and the new materials industry each released over 300 national standards. Standards such as "Multimodal Data Format for Brain-Computer Interface" and "Intelligent Classification of Artificial Intelligence Terminals" have set cutting-edge benchmarks for the development of the information technology industry; standards such as "High-Strength Crack-Arresting Steel Plate for Marine Use" and "Polyacrylonitrile-Based Oxidized Fiber" have promoted the industrialization of new materials. The new energy industry and the energy conservation and environmental protection industry each released over 100 new national standards. The "Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicles" and "Safety Requirements for Power Batteries for Electric Vehicles," dubbed the "strictest ever," promptly addressed public concerns about the safety of new energy vehicles. In addition, a number of important standards were released, such as "Requirements for Mechanical Interface of Flat-Plate Stacked Satellites and Rockets" and "Specifications for Flight Management and Service Information Interaction of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles," effectively meeting the urgent needs of emerging industries such as aerospace and low-altitude economy.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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