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The Pakistan Army stated that the negotiations over the past 24 hours have made encouraging progress and taken an important step toward reaching a final agreement.On May 23, the Financial Times reported that mediators believe the US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and lay the foundation for discussions on Irans nuclear program. According to senior sources familiar with the negotiations, the agreement would include a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment to consult on the dilution or transfer of Irans highly enriched uranium stockpiles. The US would also ease its blockade of Iranian ports, agree to sanctions waivers, and phase out the freezing of Tehrans assets held overseas. A diplomat familiar with the negotiations stated, "The agreement seems to be moving in the right direction. It has been submitted to the US for review, and Iran is likely prepared to make further concessions on the nuclear issue." These signs of progress are attributed to a series of key meetings held by negotiators from Pakistan and Qatar with their Iranian counterparts on Thursday and Friday.On May 23, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae stated that the core purpose of Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munirs visit to Iran was to convey and exchange specific information between Iran and the United States. He said, "At this stage, all our core focus is on ending this war of imposition." Baghae indicated that the two sides have held several rounds of intensive exchanges of views on different clauses in the proposal. They have also conducted in-depth discussions on issues where they have serious disagreements. Given the consistently contradictory stance of the United States, Iran cannot currently assert that this negotiation process will undergo a fundamental change. He said, "Our views have indeed converged somewhat, but this does not mean an agreement has been reached; it merely allows us to explore a possible solution."On May 23, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the current mediation process with the United States is "time-consuming and laborious" because the USs hostility dates back decades. "We discussed some key points and wording where disagreements remain, and made suggestions, some of which are still under review, with all parties expressing their opinions," the Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Bagae as saying. Bagae also thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We are currently focused on finalizing the memorandum of understanding with the United States. Over the past week, the two sides have been getting closer, and we must wait and see what happens in the next three or four days.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

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In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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