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J&T Express (01519.HK) rebounded in the afternoon, narrowing its losses to 5.01%; the company responded to the investigation: J&T Express China attaches great importance to this matter, sincerely accepts it, and will resolutely obey and fully cooperate with the relevant authorities in carrying out various investigations in accordance with laws and regulations.On June 11th, J&T Express responded to the State Post Bureaus investigation into the company, stating that J&T Express China attaches great importance to the matter, sincerely accepts, and will resolutely comply with and fully cooperate with the relevant authorities in carrying out all investigations in accordance with laws and regulations. J&T emphasized that safe production is a red line that the company cannot cross. J&T China has deeply reflected on its practices in light of important instructions regarding safe production, and deeply feels that as the brand headquarters, it has fallen short in fulfilling its unified management responsibility for safety assurance for some companies operating under the "J&T Express" trademark, trade name, and waybills. The lessons learned are profound. J&T China sincerely accepts supervision.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 1.920%.The yield on Japans 40-year government bonds rose 3.0 basis points to 3.765%.June 11th - Analysts at BMO Capital Markets stated that some members of the European Central Banks (ECB) Governing Council may be thinking, "Weve waited long enough. Lets act!" And they will indeed act, meaning they will raise interest rates on June 11th. Since the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, several other central banks, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Norwegian central bank, have tightened monetary policy. But the ECB will be the first G7 central bank to do so. The ECB previously stated that the Eurozones inflation rate and monetary policy were "in good shape," but now the situation is quite different. Concerns about the duration of the Iran-Iraq war and the sustainability of a potential peace agreement, and how these factors will affect inflation expectations and wage demand, are prompting the ECB to shift towards a tighter policy. Eurozone inflation has not eased since the last meeting. Adding to the woes, the risk of economic stagnation is increasing. The ECB must proceed cautiously, but the risk of further rate hikes remains, potentially as early as July.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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