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Futures News, June 3rd - Data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) on Wednesday showed that for the week ending May 30th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories stood at 10.0167 million kiloliters, an increase of 537,049 kiloliters from the previous weeks 9.4797 million kiloliters. Refinery operational capacity (BPSD) utilization was 79.1%, compared to 82.1% the previous week. Refinery design capacity (BPCD) utilization was 63.1%, compared to 73.5% the previous week. Due to changes in Japans petroleum product supply structure, the PAJ has suspended the release of weekly inventory details for gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, and diesel.June 3rd - According to the Financial Times, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Winsch stated that a peace agreement between the US and Iran reached before next weeks ECB meeting would not weaken the case for an interest rate hike. Winsch said, "If a peace agreement is indeed reached before the meeting, it will be part of the discussion. But we cannot know whether it will be lasting or credible." He hinted at support for a 25 basis point rate hike by the ECB. He believes that if the conflict remains unresolved, discussions among policymakers before setting interest rates on June 11th will be "quite easy." If a peace agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the discussions "may be slightly less easy. But the case for a rate hike may still exist, just not as strongly." He stated, "At some point, we cannot let the markets bear everything. We need to make a position clear."Japans Topix index broke through 4,000 points for the first time, rising more than 2% on the day.June 3rd - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will mark its third anniversary of full entry into force in June 2026. According to the Guangdong Sub-Administration of the General Administration of Customs, since June 2, 2023, Guangdong ports have imported a total of 53.8 billion yuan worth of goods enjoying preferential tariff treatment, resulting in tariff reductions of 1.4 billion yuan. Tax reductions have seen significant growth for three consecutive years, with year-on-year increases of 8.81%, 32.35%, and 32.12% respectively in 2023, 2024, and 2025. According to a relevant official from the Comprehensive Business Department of the Guangdong Sub-Administration of the General Administration of Customs, the customs has continuously optimized the level of RCEP customs clearance facilitation, helping enterprises to make good use of the RCEP rules of origin based on their own product and industry characteristics, guiding enterprises to scientifically choose the "optimal option" for preferential treatment, actively cultivating and recognizing "approved exporters," and realizing the superposition of policy dividends for customs advanced certified enterprises, thus continuously releasing the benefits of tariff reductions.Hong Kong-listed tech stocks continued to decline during the session, with Meituan (03690.HK) falling more than 6%, Kuaishou (01024.HK) and Bilibili (09626.HK) falling more than 5%, and Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) currently down more than 4%.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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