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The "Stay On" Camp: 1. Moodys: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a rate cut unlikely in the short term. Holding rates steady this year is the baseline scenario. If inflation expectations continue to rise, a rate hike may be the next step. 2. Nomura: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in the short term. Rates are likely to remain unchanged in 2026. 3. JPMorgan Chase: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and for the remainder of the year to remain unchanged. The policy stance is likely to shift clearly from accommodative to neutral. 4. Wells Fargo: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. A rate hike would require evidence of a significantly overheated labor market or a further deterioration in the inflation outlook. It is difficult to find justification for any action at this stage or in the foreseeable future. 5. BNY Mellon: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The statement is expected to suggest two-way risks to interest rates. The Fed is expected to remove its 2026 rate cut expectations, and there will be no rate cuts or hikes this year. Rate Cut Camp: 1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely removes its previous forward guidance hinting at rate cuts; short-term rate hikes are unlikely, with rate cuts expected in June and December 2027. 2. UBS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely to formally abandon its dovish stance; still believes the Feds next move will be rate cuts, with 25 basis point cuts expected in March and June 2027. 3. Citigroup: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but with easing tensions in the Middle East driving down oil prices and a weakening labor market, expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. 4. Commerzbank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely abandons its dovish language. Rate cuts are expected to begin around mid-next year, accumulating to 75 basis point cuts by the end of 2027. Rate Hike Camp: 1. Capital Economics: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a high probability of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year. 2. BNP Paribas: Expects the Fed to raise rates little before the November midterm elections, with the first rate hike likely in December at the earliest, and at a more moderate pace than in 2022. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, maintaining its baseline assessment of keeping rates unchanged for the long term, but the risk of future rate hikes is rising. 4. PGIM: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with three rate hikes this year to curb overheating, three rate cuts in 2027, and one more in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%. Others: 1. Barclays: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with forward guidance wording likely to be removed from the statement to reduce implications for future rate cuts. 2. Bank of America: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any mention of an accommodative bias and potentially adjust its description of job growth. 3. ANZ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any accommodative wording and reaffirm its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial, not because of policy changes, but because of forward guidance. 5. Investment management firm MFS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, potentially indicating a neutral monetary policy stance. Warsh may also make some changes, such as ceasing the use of the dot plot and reducing press conferences.Indonesias Ministry of Trade: From the demand side, global gold purchasing activity has slowed down due to continued volatility in international financial markets.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake occurred at 13:11 on June 17 in Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province (37.86 degrees north latitude, 95.54 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.According to a Reuters poll, 22 out of 35 economists expect the Indonesian central bank to raise its 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% or higher on June 18.According to a Reuters survey, the Indonesian central banks 7-day reverse repo rate is expected to be 5.75% by the end of 2026 (previously expected to be 5.50%).

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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