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1. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.03% to $4725.40 per ounce, down 3.16% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $75.69 per ounce, down 7.52% for the week. The conclusion of the US Department of Justices investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell boosted expectations of interest rate hikes, supporting gold prices. However, hawkish policy expectations, coupled with geopolitical and economic disturbances, led to profit-taking, resulting in only a slight increase in gold prices. 2. The main US crude oil contract closed down 1.01% at $94.88 per barrel, up 14.88% for the week; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 0.79% to $105.9 per barrel, up 17.17% for the week. 3. Most London base metals rose. LME nickel rose 2.07% to $19,125.0/ton, a weekly increase of 5.56%; LME lead rose 0.31% to $1,960.5/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.08%; LME zinc rose 0.28% to $3,462.5/ton, a weekly increase of 0.48%; LME tin rose 0.26% to $50,345.0/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.69%; LME copper fell 0.50% to $13,289.0/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.43%; and LME aluminum fell 0.80% to $3,591.0/ton, a weekly increase of 0.74%. 4. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16% to 49,230.71 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,165.08 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.63% to 24,836.6 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new highs. Merck fell more than 2%, and Verizon fell more than 1%, leading the Dows decline. The Wind U.S. Technology Big Seven Index rose 2%, Nvidia rose more than 4%, and Amazon rose more than 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.59%, Hesai Technology rose more than 6%, and Baidu Group rose nearly 6%. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.44%, the S&P 500 rose 0.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.5%. 5. European stock markets closed lower across the board. Germanys DAX index fell 0.11% to 24,128.98 points, Frances CAC40 index fell 0.84% to 8,157.82 points, and the UKs FTSE 100 index fell 0.75% to 10,379.08 points. The uncertain future of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and the continued US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on European market sentiment. This week, Germanys DAX index fell 2.32%, Frances CAC40 index fell 3.17%, and the UKs FTSE 100 index fell 2.7%.Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan: As of the episodes aired so far, Trump has not mentioned Iran in his CBS interview.On April 27th, Futures News reported that, according to foreign media, soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose for the second consecutive week in the week ending April 24, 2026, with the benchmark contract closing 5.04% higher, reaching its highest level since December 2, 2022. This mainly reflected a strong rebound in international crude oil futures, improved prospects for biofuel demand, and strong US soybean oil export sales. The nearly two-month-long war has driven up fossil fuel prices, prompting countries to accelerate biofuel blending efforts. Malaysia and Indonesia both plan to increase the blending rate of palm oil-based biodiesel, and Brazil also plans to accelerate the increase of its biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 20%. The US Environmental Protection Agency also announced an increase in its mandatory biofuel blending targets for the next two years. These policy measures will increase domestic consumption of vegetable oils, crowding out export supplies and providing positive support for soybean oil.On April 27th, according to foreign media reports, as of the week ending April 24th, 2026, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rose, with the benchmark contract closing 1.3% higher. This mainly reflected a rebound in international crude oil futures, strong US corn export sales, and potential slowdown in spring planting due to rainfall in the Midwest. However, slowdown in domestic ethanol production and a clear outlook for a bumper corn harvest in South America limited the rise in corn prices. The International Grains Council (IGC) this week lowered its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 2.9 million tons to 1.2999 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The ending stocks forecast was lowered by 2.4 million tons to 291.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.Goldman Sachs expects Middle East crude oil production to decrease by 14.5 million barrels per day, driving global oil inventories down at a record pace, with a drop of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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