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On March 31, it was reported that the Jiangsu Provincial Government held an executive meeting on March 30. The meeting reviewed several measures to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the provinces construction industry, the guiding opinions on stabilizing the real estate market, the opinions on further improving the investment and financing mechanism to accelerate the construction of expressways and trunk waterways, and the work plan for the special action to address traffic congestion in Jiangsu Province. The meeting also heard a report on the provinces comprehensive governance of the "one-stop" service for new energy vehicle charging infrastructure. The meeting emphasized the need to orderly promote cross-sectoral integration and business expansion of construction enterprises, apply intelligent and green technologies, implement precise policies to stimulate housing consumption, optimize supply, and stabilize expectations, build a diversified and sustainable funding guarantee system for expressways and trunk waterways, focus on optimizing road network structure and traffic service management, and comprehensively improve the safety level of planning, construction, operation, and supervision of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure.March 31 – A symposium on grain trading within the grain and reserve system was held in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, from March 26 to the morning of March 27. The meeting emphasized the need for a scientific assessment of the new situation and accurate understanding of new changes. It stressed the importance of focusing on the present while considering the future, centering on three core directions: serving macro-control, serving industrial development, and serving market entities. The meeting called for comprehensive and all-round improvement in quality and efficiency, continuously elevating the quality, level, and scope of grain trading work, and providing solid support for consolidating the foundation of food security and achieving a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" for grain and reserve work.Dubai Media Office: The emergency response team has successfully extinguished the fire on the Kuwaiti oil tanker.The Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 1%, while the Hang Seng Index rose more than 0.8%.Biren Technology (06082.HK), a Hong Kong-listed company, rose more than 6%, with its revenue projected to grow by 207.2% year-on-year in 2025.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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