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On December 29, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army organized destroyers, frigates, fighter-bombers, and other forces to conduct exercises in the sea and airspace east of Taiwan Island, including maritime strike, regional air superiority, and anti-submarine warfare, testing the sea-air coordination and precision targeting capabilities.December 29th - According to Kyodo News, the proportion of foreign residents in Japan is approaching the 10% threshold at a rate far exceeding official forecasts, with dozens of municipalities already surpassing this figure. One village reported that more than one-third of its residents are foreign nationals. In July of this year, then-Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki stated that by around 2040, the foreign population in Japan is expected to exceed 10% of the total population. Japans labor shortage problem is projected to worsen.Sources say India is suing Reliance Industries and BP for $30 billion over insufficient production from its gas fields.On December 29, the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army organized destroyers, fighter-bombers, drones, and other forces in the northern and southwestern sea and airspace of Taiwan Island, along with long-range firepower, to conduct training exercises including sea-air search and destruction, simulated land attack, and live-fire exercises against sea targets. The exercises tested the PLAs integrated coordination and capability to seize control.On December 29th, the fourth meeting of the Standing Committee of the First Non-Motor Property Insurance Professional Committee of the Insurance Association of China was held in Beijing. Representatives from 24 standing committee member units, including the committees chairman, PICC Property & Casualty Insurance, attended the meeting, which was chaired by Zhang Liang, member of the Party Committee and Vice President of the Insurance Association of China. The meeting reviewed and approved a proposal to promote research on model clauses and rates for corporate property insurance and employers liability insurance. The meeting believed that the committee should focus on key and difficult issues in the comprehensive governance and development of non-motor insurance, and take proactive measures through establishing working groups to strengthen industry self-regulation, formulate model clauses, deepen industry research, promote information sharing, and conduct publicity and exchange, thereby reshaping industry rules and image and serving the healthy and sustainable development of the non-motor insurance market. The meeting pointed out that the committee should strengthen its own construction, focusing on the associations overall goal of "serving the industry well, assisting in supervision well, and contributing well to society," anchoring its responsibilities, strengthening self-discipline and collaboration, improving the evaluation and supervision mechanism, and effectively playing the functional role of the committee.

Indian rupee pares losses below 78.00 amid rumors of a rate rise by the Reserve Bank of India

Alina Haynes

Jun 07, 2022 14:35

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During the first hour of Tuesday's Indian trading day, the USD/INR extends its fall from a two-week high and retests daily lows near 77.70.

 

In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair appears to be preparing for the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate rise while paying some attention to the broad US dollar gains and Foreign Portfolio Investors' (FPI) exit from Indian markets. The cause may possibly be related to recent risk-positive news reports from China.

 

Despite this, an eight-year high in Indian inflation has prompted market speculation of a significant rate rise by the RBI at its meeting on Wednesday. "All 47 experts in a Reuters survey predicted that the repo rate will be lifted for a second consecutive month from 4.40 percent to a range of 25 to 75 basis points," said Reuters.

 

The survey continues, "India's bond markets are also anticipating liquidity tightening measures, with many experts projecting a 50 basis point hike in the cash reserve ratio for banks as the RBI strives to restore monetary conditions to pre-crisis levels."

 

In addition, news articles indicating confidence in Asia's leading economy, China, contribute to the INR's strength. China Securities Journal (CSJ) lauded the nation's viral control and policy stimuli while predicting economic growth in the second half of 2022 (H2). Previously, Beijing's ability to overcome the pandemic and citing preparations to recover from the economic loss with faster unlocks, along with US President Joe Biden's likely easy stance for China, as far as demonstrating readiness to remove Trump-era tariffs, appeared to support sentiment and test INR bears.

 

Alternatively, a substantial outflow of foreign cash and rising oil costs, a significant strain on the Indian budget deficit, provide difficulties for USD/INR sellers. Yesterday, foreign investors sold the most Indian government bonds in a single session in a month, according to NewsRise, citing Reuters.

 

In addition, increased speculation over the Fed's faster/heavier rate rises, particularly following Friday's US employment report, drives the USD/INR exchange rate. A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the last dose of hawkish Fedspeak before the blackout norm helped US Treasury rates conclude the week on a positive note, reversing a three-week downward trend. According to the most recent data, market participants predict a rate rise of 0.50 percent by the Federal Reserve in September with a probability of 70 percent, up from 30 percent a week earlier.

 

The US Goods and Services Trade Balance for the upcoming month, projected at $-89.5B compared to $-109.8B in prior readings, can excite intraday traders, but the RBI decision on Wednesday and the US Consumer Price Index on Friday will garner the most attention (CPI).

Technical Evaluation

A daily closing above 77.85 looks essential for USD/INR bulls to target the May record high at 78.15. Meanwhile, 77.35 and March's peak around 77.17 restrict the pair's near-term fall.