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On April 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that they value maintaining flexibility in policy options ahead of this weeks policy decision. The market has reacted accordingly, lowering its rate hike expectations to approximately 20%. However, this probability is expected to rise to around 63% by the June meeting. Looking at the full year, traders are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 58 basis points, roughly equivalent to two subsequent 25 basis point hikes, which is Goldman Sachs current baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs believes that given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the ECB is unlikely to take action this week, as policymakers want to preserve policy space while assessing the second-round effects of inflation. The press conference is expected to maintain the tone of recent communications, with ECB President Lagarde potentially stating that the Governing Council will monitor the second-round effects and is prepared to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% in the medium term. Regarding the future policy path, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to implement two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, the first in June, followed by a move to raise the deposit rate to 2.50% in September.On April 27th, at the 2026 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, Unisoc and ADAYO jointly released a new generation AI cockpit platform equipped with the A8880 chip, which achieves a significant leap in CPU, GPU computing power and graphics rendering capabilities.On April 27th, Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen stated in a report that market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear excessive ahead of meetings later this week, thus putting the pound and euro at risk. LSEG data shows that money market pricing indicates the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday but will raise them twice before the end of the year. "We are particularly skeptical of market expectations regarding the ECB and the Bank of England," Nguyen said. She stated that there is considerable room for these expectations to be reassessed, and therefore, exchange rates could experience significant volatility.On April 27th, a Counterpoint Research report showed that global smartphone SoC shipments declined by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing memory shortage is not only impacting new product development for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and SoC suppliers, but also prompting them to optimize their product portfolios. The high-end smartphone market performed relatively steadily, with most of the cost increases already passed on to end consumers. Meanwhile, the entry-level market is gradually adopting lower-cost, older chipsets to maintain price competitiveness. Qualcomm and MediaTek both experienced double-digit declines in shipments. In contrast, Apple, Samsung, Google, and Unisoc achieved positive growth. Apple, Samsung, and Google benefited from their supply chain integration capabilities, mitigating the impact of the current memory shortage to some extent.On April 27, the draft revision of the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises was submitted to the 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress for its first review. The revision adheres to the leadership of the Party, a problem-oriented approach, the principle of balancing development and security, and the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The draft revises 71 articles and adds 32 new articles, comprising nine chapters and 109 articles, comprehensively revising the existing law. Major revisions include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, improving the management and supervision system for state-owned assets of enterprises, clarifying the principle of classified management, and improving the management system for state-owned capital gains. The Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises stipulates the basic system for the management and supervision of state-owned assets of enterprises in my country. Since its implementation on May 1, 2009, it has provided strong legal protection for the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys development environment faces profound and complex changes. Revising and improving the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, using legislation to guide and guarantee the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises, and strengthening the rule of law in the management and supervision of state-owned assets, is of great significance for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the state-owned economy.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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