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On April 5th, the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces, Hatem Anbia, announced that in response to the US actions to rescue its downed fighter pilot, Revolutionary Guard fighters, in conjunction with the Basij militia and with the cooperation of the Law Enforcement Commands commando unit, shot down and destroyed an enemy aircraft south of Isfahan. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also stated that, during the US pilot rescue mission, multiple departments of the Iranian armed forces collaborated to destroy an enemy aircraft. This information has not yet been confirmed by the US. On the same day, according to the New York Times website, two US military transport planes malfunctioned and became "stranded" while carrying out a pilot rescue mission in Iran. The US subsequently dispatched three new aircraft to continue the rescue mission and destroyed the two malfunctioning transport planes.April 5th - According to the China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., on April 4th, the national railway system transported 22.123 million passengers, setting a new record for single-day passenger volume during the Qingming Festival holiday. On April 5th, the national railway system is expected to transport 14.7 million passengers, with 768 additional passenger trains planned.Bahrains national oil and gas company confirmed that an incident occurred at one of its oil storage facilities on Sunday following an Iranian attack, resulting in a fire in the oil tanks. The fire has been completely extinguished, the situation is under control, and damage is currently being assessed. No casualties have been reported.April 5th - According to the Financial Times, the UK is trying to persuade Anthropic to expand its operations in the country. The report, citing sources familiar with the matter, stated that the UK governments proposals to Anthropic range from expanding its London office to a dual listing. Neither Anthropic nor the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology immediately responded to Reuters requests for comment. Prime Minister Starmers office has been supporting the Department for Science, Innovation and Technologys efforts, and the UK will present these proposals to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei during his visit to the UK at the end of May. The US government previously blacklisted Anthropic, deeming it a national security supply chain risk because Anthropic refused to allow the military to use its AI chatbot Claude in US surveillance or autonomous weapons systems. A US judge has temporarily blocked the blacklist, and the AI startup has filed a second lawsuit related to this supply chain risk assessment, which is still pending.The local governor said an oil pipeline in Primorsk, a Baltic port in Russia, was damaged in a Ukrainian drone attack.

USD/TRY reestablishes its annual high on route to 17.00, notwithstanding Erdogan's expectation of future inflation moderation

Alina Haynes

Jun 06, 2022 15:25

 截屏2022-06-06 下午3.23.52.png

 

In spite of Turkish currency (TRY) traders' inflation worries and President Erdogan's efforts to appease TRY purchasers, the USD/TRY continues to trade near $16.36, the highest level since 2022. The pair's upward momentum is influenced by Friday's high Turkish inflation data for May, as well as the US dollar's comeback over the last week, not to mention expectations of the Fed's faster/more aggressive rate rises.

 

According to Reuters, "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated on Sunday that inflation numbers from the month of May, when annual consumer prices soared to a 24-year high, indicate that inflation is now on the down." It is noteworthy that the May inflation rate for Turkey increased to 73.5 percent in the most recent report.

 

Reuters also reported that the lira fell by 44 percent last year and has been the poorest performer in emerging markets for several consecutive years, mostly owing to economic and monetary policy worries under the administration of President Tayyip Erdogan.

 

In contrast, the odds supporting a 0.50 percent rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September have lately increased to 75 percent from 35 percent a week earlier, which emphasizes this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and favors US dollar purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reversed a two-week downward trend at Friday's close, trading down 0.14 percent intraday near 102.000 as of press time.

 

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May came in at 390K, above expectations of 325K but falling short of the upwardly revised prior readings of 428K. In addition, the unemployment rate stayed constant at 3.6% against predictions of a minor reduction to 3.5%. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 55.9 in May, compared to the market estimate of 56.4 and the flash reading of 57.1 in April. Following the release of the statistics, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed's only worry is inflation. The officials underlined that the likelihood of a recession has increased.

 

Wall Street benchmarks finished in the negative and US 10-year Treasury rates saw their first weekly increase in three weeks to reflect the risk-averse sentiment of the previous day. However, S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.5 percent to 4,126 and US 10-year Treasury rates fell by 1.3 basis points (bps) to 2.942 percent as per the most recent data available.

 

Amid a pre-Fed blackout for Fed officials and in anticipation of Friday's US CPI, USD/TRY traders should pay attention to risk drivers moving forward.

Technical Evaluation

A successful breach of the prior resistance line from early January, about 16.45 at the time of publication, would lead USD/TRY values toward the $17.00 mark before testing the late 2021 top at $18.36.


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