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On April 7th, analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank stated in a report that the strength of oil prices has been and will continue to be (at least in the short term) a more structural driver of inflationary pressures. The analysts pointed out that inflationary pressures have led to a sell-off in interest rates as expectations of central bank rate cuts have faded. Previously, the market had anticipated two to three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but these expectations have been ruled out. LSEG data shows that the money market currently expects US policy rates to remain largely unchanged in 2026, with a very slight tightening bias. The market has even priced in a more hawkish rate hike scenario by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England by the end of this year, with increases of 74 basis points and 56 basis points respectively, "largely a result of imported energy inflation in Europe."Air India has announced an increase in its fuel surcharge due to a sharp rise in global jet fuel prices.Market news: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and US Vice President Vance will agree to purchase oil from the US during their meeting.April 7th - According to data monitored by Centaline Property Agency (Hong Kong), Hong Kong recorded 4,621 second-hand private residential property transactions in March, totaling HK$35.84 billion, representing increases of 18.1% and 20.7% respectively compared to 3,913 transactions and HK$29.69 billion in February. Data shows that in the first quarter of this year, Hong Kong recorded 12,449 second-hand private residential property transactions, totaling HK$94.91 billion, representing quarter-on-quarter increases of 13.6% and 12.4%. The number of transactions reached a new high in nearly 18 quarters since the third quarter of 2021 (13,084 transactions), while the transaction amount reached a new high in nearly 15 quarters since the second quarter of 2022 (HK$96.54 billion).Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó: US Vice President Vances visit indicates that US-Hungarian relations have entered a new "golden era".

EUR/USD Forex Technical Analysis: Sellers Aiming for 1.0571 - 1.0519

Daniel Rogers

Jun 02, 2022 16:20

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EUR/USD

The Euro remains practically unchanged versus the U.S. Dollar at the start of Thursday's trading day, after falling to its lowest level since May 23 in the previous session. As rising Treasury rates and global inflation concerns boost the U.S. dollar, the single currency moves farther away from a monthly peak established on 30 May.

 

At 04:29 GMT, the EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.0654, up 0.0002, or +0.02%. Wednesday's closing price for the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) was $98.61, a decrease of $0.74 or 0.74 percent.

 

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Euro Region PMI Slows

In Euro Zone economic news, manufacturing growth in the area slowed last month as manufacturers faced supply shortages, high pricing, and a decline in demand, according to a study indicating that consumers shifted spending to tourism and recreation. In May, Euro Zone inflation reached an all-time high of 8.1%, according to a survey released earlier this week.

 

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global, stated, "Euro area manufacturers continue to struggle against the headwinds of supply shortages, increasing inflationary pressures, and decreasing demand amid rising economic uncertainty."

Economic Weakness and Rising Inflation Pose a Major Problem for the ECB

The price movement implies that investors are concerned about inflation and slowing GDP, which might provide challenges for the European Central Bank (ECB) and its intentions to begin raising interest rates in July.

 

The ECB must boost interest rates in order to curb inflation. In addition, the measure might hinder the already declining economic expansion. If the ECB exerts excessive pressure, the Euro Zone economy might collapse excessively and too quickly, leading to a recession. This would make the Euro weaker.