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On April 20th, amidst increased uncertainty due to the Iran war, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, after attending an IMF meeting, did not commit to an April rate hike in advance, but still released some hawkish signals, suggesting that a June rate hike, if not this month, remains a possibility. While market attention focused on his lack of explicit indication of an April rate hike, Ueda did not downplay the possibility, emphasizing the need to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and its impact on the Japanese economy. Three sources familiar with the Bank of Japans thinking indicated that, with both possibilities remaining, policymakers might hesitate until the last minute to decide whether to raise rates at the April 27-28 meeting, depending in part on the progress of negotiations to end the war between the US and Iran. The sources stated, "Given the high degree of uncertainty, it is too early to make a decision now regarding the policy meeting more than a week from now."On April 20th, gold prices edged lower on Monday due to a stronger dollar. Meanwhile, news of a renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz boosted oil prices and fueled inflation concerns. Ilya Spivak, Global Head of Macro Affairs at Tastylive, stated, “The market’s optimism regarding a ceasefire agreement in the US-Iran war appears to have been dashed last week, hence the decline in gold prices today. This has reignited the ‘wartime trade’ pattern common since the beginning of the conflict. Rising oil prices, in turn, have impacted inflation expectations and pushed up yields and the dollar exchange rate.”On April 20th, Tesla China reported that when Tesla Vice President Wang Hao was asked about robots at a media event on April 14th, he only discussed that Teslas Shanghai Gigafactory has excellent large-scale production capabilities and great potential for the future. "Currently, Tesla has no specific plans to mass-produce robots at the Shanghai Gigafactory. Please do not describe in reports that Tesla is about to mass-produce robots in Shanghai; this is incorrect information," Tesla China stated.Hong Kong-listed Qunhe Technology (00068.HK) continues its upward trend, currently up nearly 40% to HK$25.96.On April 20, according to a report by RIA Novosti, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that the Russian military will consider Frances plans to deploy nuclear weapons in non-nuclear European countries when updating its list of priority targets in future conflicts. In an interview, Grushko said that France has announced the possibility of dispersing its nuclear forces to non-nuclear European countries, a point that requires special attention. In the event of a serious conflict in the future, Russia will closely monitor this situation when updating its priority military targets.

AUD/USD falls approaching 0.7200 despite the former RBA governor's aggressive forecasts

Alina Haynes

Jun 08, 2022 11:59

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Bears and buyers continue to fight for position around 0.7220-25 as sentiment is mixed and investors remain cautious ahead of the week's big data/events. In doing so, the Australian duo struggles to defend the hawkish remarks of former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Ian Macfarlane.

 

Ex-RBA Governor Macfarlane warned early Wednesday morning about chronically rising inflation and the need to drastically increase interest rates. The former policymaker also stated, "There is sufficient scarcity in Australia and the United States to maintain a high inflation rate."

 

In contrast, China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen joined China's Vice Finance Minister Zou Jiayi in reiterating concerns about a global economic downturn and a decline in demand. Recent consensus among policymakers held that the rise of global demand is slowing.

 

It's worth noting that a rebound in US Treasury rates and apprehension ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, tend to stifle the AUD/USD pair's movements.

 

In spite of this, 10-year US Treasury note rates jump two basis points (bps) to 2.99 percent the day after breaking a six-day downward trend. A record decline in the US trade deficit and optimism on the US budget appear to have prompted a recall of US Treasury bond sellers. The US trade deficit for April decreased 19.1 percent from the previous day to USD87.1 billion.

 

Other market optimists were defended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and optimism for a quicker economic rebound in China. Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke before the Senate Finance Committee about the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget while stating that the US economy faced problems from "unsustainable levels of inflation" and supply chain disruptions. The official said, "An adequate budget is necessary to support the Fed's efforts to control inflation without damaging the labor market."

 

It should be noted that World Bank (WB) President David Malpass's warning that faster-than-anticipated tightening might force certain nations into a debt crisis akin to that of the 1980s appears to have impacted on the quotation as of late. The risk-negative news from Ukraine may follow a similar trajectory. Politico reported that Ukraine has not yet achieved a deal with Russia or Turkey to enable the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, casting doubt on a U.N. initiative to build a crucial food corridor.

Technical Evaluation

A two-week-old support line protects AUD/USD buyers at 0.7205. However, the 200-day moving average and the recent top, located around 0.7255 and 0.7285, may challenge the Aussie pair's upside before the bulls regain control.