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On March 21, following the conditional easing of US sanctions on Iranian oil, an Axios reporter stated that this move would allow Iran to earn approximately $14 billion in oil revenue. This would be the first time the US has purchased Iranian oil since 1996, all during the war with Iran. However, the New York Times points out that it remains unclear whether the limited lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil will affect global oil prices. Energy analysts believe that most of the crude oil shipped by sea has already been purchased and accounted for, meaning that lifting sanctions on this oil will not significantly increase the supply of oil in the market. Former US Treasury official Daniel Tannebaum stated, "I dont think Iranian crude oil will be imported into the United States." He added, "First, the supply of crude oil is a problem because most of it has already been booked; second, which global bank is funding the Iranian oil trade, regardless of whether such trade is legal?"On March 21, Sun Meijun, Director-General of the General Administration of Customs, met with Lee Myung-koo, Director-General of the Korean Customs Service, who was in China to attend the 20th China-Korea Customs Cooperation Conference. The meeting focused on implementing the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and South Korea, deepening customs cooperation between the two countries, and jointly promoting trade security and facilitation in China, South Korea, and the Asia-Pacific region. Three customs cooperation documents were signed. Following the meeting, Zhang Baofeng and Lee Myung-koo co-chaired the 20th China-Korea Customs Cooperation Conference. Both sides exchanged in-depth views on strengthening the partnership in "smart customs," deepening electronic networking of rules of origin, risk management, customs statistics, intellectual property protection, mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators (AEO), inter-customs cooperation, and anti-smuggling enforcement cooperation, reaching broad consensus on cooperation.On March 21, according to the US-based "War Zone" website, the Pentagon confirmed that a US F-35A fighter jet operating over Iran made an emergency return and landed at an undisclosed US military airfield in the Middle East. Video released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows the stealth fighter jet being attacked. Foreign media reports suggest this may be the first time an F-35 has been hit in combat since its introduction, setting a new world record for air combat.On March 21, German Chancellor Merz stated at an event in Bad Duckheim, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, on March 20 that he had intended to invite US President Trump to the local wine festival in 2026, but he was unsure if Trump would be willing to attend because Trump is currently "not very happy" with him. Furthermore, Merz said that Germany currently holds "completely different views" from the US on some issues. He also stated that the "Make America Great Again" movement is unrelated to other countries, and that Germany holds different views on American culture, media products, and some democratic ideals.On March 21, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement saying that Iran recently launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel. IDF rescue forces stated that Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel, causing damage to three locations in Rishon LeZion.

AUD/USD falls approaching 0.7200 despite the former RBA governor's aggressive forecasts

Alina Haynes

Jun 08, 2022 11:59

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Bears and buyers continue to fight for position around 0.7220-25 as sentiment is mixed and investors remain cautious ahead of the week's big data/events. In doing so, the Australian duo struggles to defend the hawkish remarks of former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Ian Macfarlane.

 

Ex-RBA Governor Macfarlane warned early Wednesday morning about chronically rising inflation and the need to drastically increase interest rates. The former policymaker also stated, "There is sufficient scarcity in Australia and the United States to maintain a high inflation rate."

 

In contrast, China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen joined China's Vice Finance Minister Zou Jiayi in reiterating concerns about a global economic downturn and a decline in demand. Recent consensus among policymakers held that the rise of global demand is slowing.

 

It's worth noting that a rebound in US Treasury rates and apprehension ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, tend to stifle the AUD/USD pair's movements.

 

In spite of this, 10-year US Treasury note rates jump two basis points (bps) to 2.99 percent the day after breaking a six-day downward trend. A record decline in the US trade deficit and optimism on the US budget appear to have prompted a recall of US Treasury bond sellers. The US trade deficit for April decreased 19.1 percent from the previous day to USD87.1 billion.

 

Other market optimists were defended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and optimism for a quicker economic rebound in China. Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke before the Senate Finance Committee about the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget while stating that the US economy faced problems from "unsustainable levels of inflation" and supply chain disruptions. The official said, "An adequate budget is necessary to support the Fed's efforts to control inflation without damaging the labor market."

 

It should be noted that World Bank (WB) President David Malpass's warning that faster-than-anticipated tightening might force certain nations into a debt crisis akin to that of the 1980s appears to have impacted on the quotation as of late. The risk-negative news from Ukraine may follow a similar trajectory. Politico reported that Ukraine has not yet achieved a deal with Russia or Turkey to enable the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, casting doubt on a U.N. initiative to build a crucial food corridor.

Technical Evaluation

A two-week-old support line protects AUD/USD buyers at 0.7205. However, the 200-day moving average and the recent top, located around 0.7255 and 0.7285, may challenge the Aussie pair's upside before the bulls regain control.


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