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On January 13, the Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions on the "Several Policies of Guangzhou Municipality on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry Across the Entire Chain During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period (Draft for Solicitation of Opinions)". The draft mentions accelerating breakthroughs in the design of high-end general-purpose chips such as processors, memory chips, and edge computing chips; actively supporting the development of specialized chips such as RISC-V (an open-source instruction set architecture based on the principle of reduced instruction set), automotive-grade, display drivers, sensors, optical communication, and 6G; strengthening support for the first-round tape-out of integrated circuit companies products; and providing subsidies of up to 50% of the tape-out cost to qualified companies that conduct tape-out of 28nm and below chips with independent intellectual property rights or significant competitive advantages.On January 13, at the ceremony marking the production of the 1 millionth Seres vehicle, Zhang Xinghai, Chairman of the Seres Group, announced that the first million-vehicle sales of the Wenjie brand were achieved after five years. In the next two years, the company will strive to achieve the second million-vehicle target, namely, an average annual sales volume of over 500,000 vehicles from 2026 to 2027.On January 13th, Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang stated in a report that Pop Marts domestic revenue growth may slow in the fourth quarter. He indicated that due to a "high base and delays in the launch of new plush keychains featuring its flagship IPs," the companys overall revenue growth in the Chinese market in the fourth quarter may be lower than in the third quarter. He added that some Labubu products are experiencing inventory backlogs in certain retail stores, indicating that market interest in older products is waning. Morningstar maintains its fair value estimate for the stock at HK$280. "After the recent sharp decline in share price, Pop Marts valuation is now attractive, and we believe the markets concerns about its short-term revenue fluctuations are excessive."On January 13th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced that its newly formed Financial Policy Committee has finalized its seven members, including two external appointees. The committee will hold its first meeting in February. This move stems from several surveys conducted last year regarding competition in New Zealands banking sector, which recommended that the RBNZ strengthen its financial policy-making capabilities. With the support of Finance Minister Willis, the RBNZ Board of Governors established the committee to enhance the professionalism of policy decisions. The committees responsibilities include setting prudential regulatory requirements for financial institutions and making decisions on macroprudential policy. In addition, the committee will advise the Finance Minister on legislative reforms, regulatory measures, or other regulatory activities, and will be responsible for approving the central banks semi-annual Financial Stability Report.On January 13th, former Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board member Makoto Sakurai stated that the BOJ may raise interest rates as early as April due to the continued weakness of the yen caused by escalating market concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis "dangerous" fiscal policies. "The BOJ must raise rates at least once before June or July, but the action could come in April." (The market generally expects the BOJ to raise rates approximately every six months, so an April rate hike would be earlier than the market consensus.) These remarks came as the yen further depreciated following reports in Japanese media that the Takaichi municipal government was considering holding an early general election next month. Sakurais comments indicate that he believes the BOJ will not take action to support the yen at its next two meetings, and if the yen continues to depreciate, the responsibility for maintaining the exchange rate during this period will fall on the Ministry of Finance.

AUD/USD falls approaching 0.7200 despite the former RBA governor's aggressive forecasts

Alina Haynes

Jun 08, 2022 11:59

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Bears and buyers continue to fight for position around 0.7220-25 as sentiment is mixed and investors remain cautious ahead of the week's big data/events. In doing so, the Australian duo struggles to defend the hawkish remarks of former Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Ian Macfarlane.

 

Ex-RBA Governor Macfarlane warned early Wednesday morning about chronically rising inflation and the need to drastically increase interest rates. The former policymaker also stated, "There is sufficient scarcity in Australia and the United States to maintain a high inflation rate."

 

In contrast, China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen joined China's Vice Finance Minister Zou Jiayi in reiterating concerns about a global economic downturn and a decline in demand. Recent consensus among policymakers held that the rise of global demand is slowing.

 

It's worth noting that a rebound in US Treasury rates and apprehension ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, as well as Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, tend to stifle the AUD/USD pair's movements.

 

In spite of this, 10-year US Treasury note rates jump two basis points (bps) to 2.99 percent the day after breaking a six-day downward trend. A record decline in the US trade deficit and optimism on the US budget appear to have prompted a recall of US Treasury bond sellers. The US trade deficit for April decreased 19.1 percent from the previous day to USD87.1 billion.

 

Other market optimists were defended by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and optimism for a quicker economic rebound in China. Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Yellen spoke before the Senate Finance Committee about the Fiscal Year 2023 Budget while stating that the US economy faced problems from "unsustainable levels of inflation" and supply chain disruptions. The official said, "An adequate budget is necessary to support the Fed's efforts to control inflation without damaging the labor market."

 

It should be noted that World Bank (WB) President David Malpass's warning that faster-than-anticipated tightening might force certain nations into a debt crisis akin to that of the 1980s appears to have impacted on the quotation as of late. The risk-negative news from Ukraine may follow a similar trajectory. Politico reported that Ukraine has not yet achieved a deal with Russia or Turkey to enable the safe passage of its grain ships in the Black Sea, casting doubt on a U.N. initiative to build a crucial food corridor.

Technical Evaluation

A two-week-old support line protects AUD/USD buyers at 0.7205. However, the 200-day moving average and the recent top, located around 0.7255 and 0.7285, may challenge the Aussie pair's upside before the bulls regain control.


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