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On January 11, CICC commented on the US non-farm data. The team believes that the highlight of this time is the recovery of the service industry. The service industry has added 231,000 jobs, which has become the main driving force. Judging from the market reaction, the unexpected non-farm data has pushed the US Treasury bond interest rate and the US dollar to a new high, which is also in line with its judgment since the fourth quarter of last year: it believes that the US dollar is still strong and that interest rate cuts should be "done in reverse". When the interest rate cut is realized, it will be the low point of the US Treasury bond interest rate, rather than continuing to look at the recession and the starting point of the downward interest rate.German Geoscience Research Center GFZ: A 5.5-magnitude earthquake occurred in Ethiopia.On January 11, according to AFP, US President Biden condemned Metas plan to terminate its third-party fact-checking on the 10th, calling the decision "shameful." Biden told reporters at the White House, "This goes against everything America is about." It is reported that after Meta terminates its third-party fact-checking plan, it will switch to a user-written community annotation model. The plan will be implemented first in the United States, replacing the fact-checking service previously conducted by independent third parties.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,938.45 on January 10 (Friday), down 696.75 points, or 1.63%. The S&P 500 closed at 5,827.04 on January 10 (Friday), down 91.21 points, or 1.54%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 19,161.63 on January 10 (Friday), down 317.25 points, or 1.63%.According to CNN: U.S. President-elect Trump met with Meta Platforms (META.O) CEO Zuckerberg at Mar-a-Lago on Friday.

AUD/USD surpasses 0.7180 on bullish Chinese trade statistics

Daniel Rogers

Jun 09, 2022 11:24

 截屏2022-06-09 上午11.26.40.png

 

The AUD/USD pair has attempted to surpass 0.7180 as China's National Bureau of Statistics released year-to-date trade figures that exceeded expectations (YTD). Imports have increased by 4.1% in dollar terms, while exports have increased by 16.9%. The U.S. Trade Balance came in at $78.76B, far higher than the forecast of $58B and the previous reading of $51.12B. Notably, Australia is China's most important trading partner, and Chinese trade statistics has a huge influence on the antipodes.

 

Australian bulls are underperforming versus the dollar despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement of a massive rate rise (RBA). The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps). The market consensus anticipated a 25 basis point rate increase.

 

The estimate of a 25 basis point rate rise was based on increasing inflation and a sluggish labor market. Last week, the Australian economy announced an Employment Change of 4k, indicating that the economy created 4k jobs in May, which was much less than the expected 30k.

 

Due to the lack of liquidity in the economy, more quantitative tightening measures diminish job chances. Therefore, a rate increase of a quarter to one percent was preferable. Now, severe quantitative restraints may lead to inefficiencies in the employment creation process.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) is battling to hold above 102.60. As investors anticipate the announcement of US inflation data on Friday, the odds favor an increase in the DXY's value. The preliminary estimate for the annual inflation rate is 8.3 percent, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to be 5.9 percent, down from 6.2 percent in the previous reading.


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