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On December 17th, the British government announced in a statement that it would begin negotiations with the European Union on electricity market integration. London further noted that progress in these negotiations could reduce electricity costs for British citizens. The British government commented, "Closer electricity cooperation will bring real benefits to businesses and consumers across the UK, boost investment in the North Sea region, and strengthen energy security." Both sides also "set a deadline next year for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and carbon market interconnection" before the 2026 UK-EU summit.Market news: Mexico has lifted tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."Preliminary plans indicate that Angola will load 29 tankers of crude oil in February, compared to 30 tankers planned for January.On December 17th, Ukraines top military commander, Sergei Syrsky, stated on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern town of Kupyansk. This came days after the Ukrainian president declared a victory for Ukrainian forces against Russian troops in Kupyansk. "Thanks to active search and strike operations, we have successfully driven [Russian troops] out of Kupyansk and taken control of nearly 90% of the towns territory," Syrsky wrote.

AUD/USD surpasses 0.7180 on bullish Chinese trade statistics

Daniel Rogers

Jun 09, 2022 11:24

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The AUD/USD pair has attempted to surpass 0.7180 as China's National Bureau of Statistics released year-to-date trade figures that exceeded expectations (YTD). Imports have increased by 4.1% in dollar terms, while exports have increased by 16.9%. The U.S. Trade Balance came in at $78.76B, far higher than the forecast of $58B and the previous reading of $51.12B. Notably, Australia is China's most important trading partner, and Chinese trade statistics has a huge influence on the antipodes.

 

Australian bulls are underperforming versus the dollar despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's announcement of a massive rate rise (RBA). The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps). The market consensus anticipated a 25 basis point rate increase.

 

The estimate of a 25 basis point rate rise was based on increasing inflation and a sluggish labor market. Last week, the Australian economy announced an Employment Change of 4k, indicating that the economy created 4k jobs in May, which was much less than the expected 30k.

 

Due to the lack of liquidity in the economy, more quantitative tightening measures diminish job chances. Therefore, a rate increase of a quarter to one percent was preferable. Now, severe quantitative restraints may lead to inefficiencies in the employment creation process.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) is battling to hold above 102.60. As investors anticipate the announcement of US inflation data on Friday, the odds favor an increase in the DXY's value. The preliminary estimate for the annual inflation rate is 8.3 percent, while the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to be 5.9 percent, down from 6.2 percent in the previous reading.