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Eurozone retail sales rose 2% year-on-year in January, below the expected 1.70% and the previous figure revised from 1.30% to 1.8%.Eurozone retail sales fell 0.1% month-on-month in January, below the expected 0.30% and the previous months figure was revised from -0.50% to 0.2%.March 5th - Sources and analysts indicate that the US and Israeli attacks on Iran will have a greater negative impact on Indias economic growth than on its inflation, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain low interest rates. The conflict has affected much of the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise by approximately 15%, disrupting natural gas supplies in the region, and triggering a sell-off in Indian stocks, bonds, and currencies, with the Indian rupee hitting a record low. However, sources suggest that despite the rupees depreciation and rising oil prices, the RBI is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance. These sources believe one of the most pressing risks to Indias economic growth is a disruption in natural gas supplies. If this disruption lasts for more than four weeks, it could negatively impact the economy for at least a quarter. The source also stated that if oil prices remain at $90-95 per barrel for three to four consecutive quarters, Indias projected economic growth rate of over 7% in the next fiscal year will suffer a more sustained impact. In that scenario, the growth rate could slow from the currently projected over 7% to approximately 6.5%. He stated, "If oil prices remain high for an extended period, Indias golden opportunity for the economy will come to an end." However, one source pointed out that the current assessment may be adjusted given the potential for extreme changes in the Middle East situation.Eurozone January retail sales figures will be released in ten minutes.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: These kinds of conflicts often dampen demand, leading to even more sluggish economic growth.

Rupiah Rebounds Again Above $14,500 Amid Disappointing Indonesia Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Jun 10, 2022 14:20

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USD/IDR pares weekly gains at $14,570 despite Indonesia Retail Sales falling in April, according to Friday's data. The current weakening in the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair may be attributable to the broad dollar retreat ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May.

 

According to the most recent report from Bank Indonesia, the nation's Retail Sales slowed to 8.5% in April, down from 9.3% in the previous report.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) pares its largest daily advances in a week due to apprehension around the release of vital inflation data.

 

Notably, however, fresh covid worries in China owing to the restoration of activity limitations in Shanghai and Beijing threaten Asian market mood. "Only ten days after a citywide lockdown was lifted, Shanghai's citizens will be subjected to an unexpected round of COVID-19 testing this weekend, unnerving locals and increasing fears about the impact on business," said Reuters.

 

On a larger scale, growing worries of faster/heavier rate rises and their negative economic ramifications appear to be weighing on the performance of the market as of late. Among the additional reasons that challenge the USD/IDR bears are the escalating fears about inflation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

 

Moving forward, it will be crucial to monitor the US CPI, which is anticipated to remain unchanged at roughly 8.5% YoY, since the White House has previously predicted a higher number, which might remember USD/IDR bulls.

 

Technical Evaluation

 

Despite the most recent dip, USD/IDR maintains the early week's comeback from the 100-day simple moving average (about $14,420 at press time), which keeps purchasers optimistic.


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