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Dell (DELL.N) shares rose to 10%.On September 11th, the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 47.8, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less than 4 points. Both Democrats and Republicans saw significant declines, while independents remained largely unchanged from August. Expectations for personal finances and business conditions over the next year fell sharply. With rebounding fuel prices and escalating trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressure on their wallets in the future. Five-year expectations for business conditions remained stable, but the reading was well below historical averages, suggesting that consumers believe the new risks emerging this month may not further worsen the long-term outlook. Overall, consumer confidence is currently 16% lower than before the start of the Iran conflict in February and 13% lower than a year ago. Inflation expectations for the next year jumped to 4.6% this month from 4.0% last month, the highest reading since June. The current reading significantly exceeds the 3.4% in February before the Iran conflict and also surpasses all readings for 2024. Long-term inflation expectations rose slightly to 3.4%, ending three consecutive months at 3.3%. These expectations remain above the 2.8% to 3.2% range for 2024.The preliminary reading for the U.S. five- to ten-year inflation rate in September was 3.4%, compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a previous reading of 3.30%.The preliminary reading for the US one-year inflation rate in September was 4.6%, down from the expected 4.2% and the previous reading of 4.00%.The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was 47.8, below the expected 51 and the previous reading of 51.7.

Rabobank forecasts that USD/JPY will hit 135 before readjusting to the 132-130 region later in the year

Daniel Rogers

Jun 13, 2022 15:34

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Inflation rates in the United States exceeded all forecasts. Rabobank economists anticipate that the USD/JPY pair will rise to 135 in the near future before falling to the area of 132-30 later in 2022.

USD/JPY is largely dependent on the forecast for US rates

The strength of the US inflation report for May raises the prospect for further USD/JPY rises over the next one to three months to 135. This presupposes that the Bank of Japan will retain its present loose monetary policy at its June meeting, which looks quite probable."

 

"We continue to be skeptical about the prospect of genuine FX intervention, since this would directly contradict the BoJ's monetary policy." It would also violate the commitment Japan has maintained for years as a member of the G7 to let the market determine currency rates."

 

We anticipate that lower US rates will let USD/JPY to return to the range between 132 and 130 later in the year.

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