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March 20 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed moderately higher on Thursday, with the benchmark contract rising 0.6%, reflecting a sharp rise in the neighboring soybean meal market and strength in international crude oil futures. Traders said Chicago soybean meal futures surged to their highest level in nearly four months. This was reportedly supported by the rejection of Brazilian soybean shipments. The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) projects Brazils soybean production for 2025/26 at 177.85 million tons, an upward revision of 730,000 tons from its previous forecast. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its Argentine soybean production forecast unchanged this week at 48.5 million tons. This figure is slightly higher than the US Department of Agricultures estimate of 48 million tons.March 20th - Generally, geopolitical conflicts can fuel market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. For example, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, gold prices surged within two weeks. However, since the outbreak of the Iraq War, while oil and the US dollar have soared, gold has experienced a continuous decline. "This counterintuitive trend in gold prices is mainly due to the fact that interest rate logic is significantly suppressing safe-haven logic," said Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Securities. He added that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in oil prices are pushing up global inflation expectations, which may reinforce the Federal Reserves stance of maintaining unchanged interest rates, putting downward pressure on precious metals. Qu Rui cautioned that short-term gold price movements still need to focus on factors such as the Federal Reserves interest rate cut window and the evolution of the Middle East situation, and to be wary of potential risks such as unexpectedly high global inflation and escalating geopolitical conflicts.South Koreas Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated that a long-term liquefied natural gas contract with Qatar may constitute force majeure, exacerbating supply uncertainty.South Koreas Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy stated that liquefied natural gas imports from Qatar account for 14% of total imports, and supply disruptions will not cause major problems.European Council President Costa: (Regarding Hungarian Prime Minister Orbáns obstruction of loans to Ukraine) No one can blackmail the European Council.

Rabobank forecasts that USD/JPY will hit 135 before readjusting to the 132-130 region later in the year

Daniel Rogers

Jun 13, 2022 15:34

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Inflation rates in the United States exceeded all forecasts. Rabobank economists anticipate that the USD/JPY pair will rise to 135 in the near future before falling to the area of 132-30 later in 2022.

USD/JPY is largely dependent on the forecast for US rates

The strength of the US inflation report for May raises the prospect for further USD/JPY rises over the next one to three months to 135. This presupposes that the Bank of Japan will retain its present loose monetary policy at its June meeting, which looks quite probable."

 

"We continue to be skeptical about the prospect of genuine FX intervention, since this would directly contradict the BoJ's monetary policy." It would also violate the commitment Japan has maintained for years as a member of the G7 to let the market determine currency rates."

 

We anticipate that lower US rates will let USD/JPY to return to the range between 132 and 130 later in the year.

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