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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Dollar-Australian retracement targets 0.6900 ahead of China data and minutes of Fed meeting

Daniel Rogers

Jun 15, 2022 11:33

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On Wednesday's mid-Asian session, AUD/USD rose to an intraday high of 0.6890 after receiving bids to pare recent losses around a five-week bottom. A moderate bid for US stock futures helps support the AUD/USD in light of the market's stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

 

Nevertheless, US diplomats continue to dismiss recent mixed factory-gate inflation numbers while indirectly urging the Fed toward quick rate hikes and balance sheet normalization. Market sentiment is impacted by the same information on the covid conditions in Taiwan and China, which challenges the AUD/USD bulls because the pair is prominent as a risk barometer.

 

White House (WH) Economic Adviser Brian Deese and National Economic Council (NEC) Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti both spoke out against rising inflation in interviews with CNN and Bloomberg, respectively.

 

Beijing had recorded the highest number of coronavirus cases in three weeks the day before and suggested even stricter activity restrictions. Shanghai, on the other hand, has experienced a reduction in the number of COVID-19 cases but has maintained the previously stated limitations to prevent the virus from spreading too rapidly.

 

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May came in at the expected 0.8% MoM, but fell to 10.8% YoY from 10.9 percent forecast and previous readings. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy from the PPI calculation, decreased from 8.6% to 8.3% YoY.

 

Goldman Sachs (GS) Chief Australia Economist Andrew Boak's words also helped the AUD/USD recover. "We now predict that the RBA will boost interest rates by 50 basis points in August and September, up from 25 basis points previously," said Boak from GS.

 

Another factor that may have benefited Australia's recent recovery is the declaration that the country's minimum wage will be raised by 5.2% as a result of the review. According to Reuters, the new weekly minimum wage is set to rise by $40.

 

US stock futures stay sluggish near the lowest levels since early 2021, up 0.20 percent intraday as of late, while Treasury bond yields stagnate near the 11-year high over 3.5 percent, about 3.475 percent as of late.

 

Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for June, anticipated to be -0.7 percent versus -5.6 percent previously, would provide immediate direction for the AUD/USD pair before China's Industrial Production and Retail Sales for May. On the other hand, a great lot of stress will be focused on the Fed's capacity to limit inflation without disappointing the markets.

In-Depth Analysis

Bears require a convincing break below the annual low of 0.6830, marked in May, to aim a June 2020 low of 0.6775. A recovery advance requires confirmation from the bottom of 2021 near 0.7001, on the other hand.


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