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On January 20th, US President Trump posted on social media: "It is appalling that our brilliant NATO ally, the United Kingdom, is now planning to hand over Diego Garcia—home to a vital US military base—to Mauritius, without any justification. This is an incredibly foolish act by the UK to relinquish such important territory, and yet another example of the national security justification for us to reclaim Greenland. Denmark and its European allies must make the right choice." The Chagos Archipelago, located in the heart of the Indian Ocean, holds a crucial geographical position. Its core island, Diego Garcia, is a vital military base jointly built and operated by the US and UK. Last May, British Prime Minister Starmer signed an agreement formally transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. As a key Anglo-American military base in the Indian Ocean, the Diego Garcia military base in the Chagos Archipelago played a crucial role in the Gulf War, the Afghan War, and military deterrence against Iran, and was considered an "unsinkable aircraft carrier" for the Anglo-American forces in the central Indian Ocean.According to a report by Kyodo News citing the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has received an invitation to join Trumps Gaza Peace Committee.On January 20, Xiong Jijun, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, met with Colombian Vice Minister of Information Technology and Communications, Perdomo, in Beijing to exchange views on deepening industrial cooperation in the information and communication field. Xiong Jijun stated that China and Colombia have maintained friendly cooperation in the information and communication sector for a long time, achieving fruitful results and making positive contributions to the development of the China-Colombia strategic partnership. China is willing to work with Colombia to fully implement the consensus reached at the meeting between the two heads of state, encourage enterprises from both countries to deepen pragmatic cooperation, broaden the scope of industrial cooperation, jointly promote the construction of digital infrastructure, accelerate the innovative development of emerging technologies, and create a new situation of win-win cooperation.A Polish military spokesperson stated that Russias attacks on Ukraine posed no threat to Polish airspace.On January 20th, Investinglive analyst Justin Low stated that gold bulls could hardly believe their luck at the start of the new year. And its all thanks to one person. In the first week, geopolitical tensions stemming from Venezuela continued to escalate. In the second week, the Federal Reserves independence was questioned, and the Iranian issue brought new geopolitical risks. This week, Trump attempted to control Greenland through tariffs, further intertwining geopolitical conflicts and economic risks. All of this has only exacerbated the key factors that have driven gold prices higher over the past year. As prices continue to rise, the $5,000 mark will become the next closely watched target. This important price level will be a key focus for any profit-taking, especially if this coincides with the seasonal weakening trend in January.

The USD/JPY advances somewhat above 134.00 as negative sentiment and Fed worries combine with rising interest rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 20, 2023 11:18

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USD/JPY establishes an intraday high towards the middle of 134.00 as it gains bids to reverse the previous day's decline from a multi-day high on Monday morning. In doing so, the Yen pair reflects the broad US Dollar gain amid fairly gloomy sentiment and the US and Canadian vacations.

 

Nonetheless, geopolitical concerns about China, North Korea, and Russia have recently weighed on market sentiment, despite the short calendar and absence of US/Canadian traders restraining momentum.

 

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan over the weekend, reviving concerns that the hermit kingdom is up to something that could endanger the global economy. This is partly owing to the fact that both rockets were classified as tactical nuclear assault weapons.

 

In a similar vein, the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi did not appear to have repaired US-China relations. Possible cause is a comment by a Chinese envoy that the United States must change course and restore the damage caused to Sino-American ties by the indiscriminate use of force. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed earlier positive readings of employment and output statistics and raised US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) views and the aforementioned risk-negative factors may be comparable.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently observed, as reported by Reuters, "We are observing an abundance of contradictory economic data." As reported by Reuters, Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, claimed that they are detecting some inflationary progress due to the normalization of demand.

 

It should be underlined that the mixed leaning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new monetary policy board and chatters of more inflation in Japan likely to place a floor under the Yen.

 

Among these trades, the S&P 500 Futures print small losses even as Wall Street closed neutral. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the DXY to register a three-week advance.

 

For forward, Japan’s National Core Inflation figures will join the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product to steer immediate USD/JPY fluctuations. Yet, the most attention will be paid to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.