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On August 17th, US President Trump posted on social media that he was unhappy with the USs previous agreement to participate in joint military exercises with South Korea, given his "good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Trump stated, "These exercises are not only extremely costly, with most of the expenses borne by the United States, but they also send a completely inappropriate and hostile signal to a country that has never been a threat and has maintained respect during my presidency." Trump said that since canceling the exercises is now too late, he has "instructed Secretary of War Hergsays to significantly reduce the scale of these joint US-South Korea military exercises." Trump also stated that he recently inquired with the South Korean president whether he would be willing to work with the US to "promote the denuclearization of Iran," but South Korea refused.Conflict Situation: 1. Iran claims US troops have been expelled from the Strait of Hormuz. 2. According to Sky News: Yemeni sources revealed that Yemeni air defense forces responded to a Houthi drone attack over Mocha, Hodeidah province. 3. According to the Jerusalem Post: The Israel Defense Forces killed senior Hezbollah commander Abu Hassan Alaa in a weekend attack on the Deir Zahrani region in southern Lebanon. 4. According to IRNA: The Iranian Army Chief of Staff stated that they are certain the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier was hit at least once by Iranian munitions, rendering all its fighter jets unable to take off for a period of time. Peace Talks: 1. The Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau visited Egypt to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip. 2. Egyptian President Sisi met with Trumps son-in-law, Jared Kushner, confirming the necessity of resolving the current regional crisis. 3. Inside stories of the US-Iran negotiations were exposed by US media, revealing that the Trump administration bypassed Iranian negotiators to contact the Revolutionary Guard. 4. US media: Kushner met with Hamas leaders in Egypt on Sunday and pressured them to begin fulfilling their commitments to disarm. Kushner is expected to arrive in Israel on Monday and meet with Netanyahu to discuss the "reciprocal measures" Israel needs to take. 5. According to Al Jazeera: Palestinian sources revealed that Kushner has informed the Hamas leadership that Trump believes disarming the various factions is a crucial step before any further action in Gaza. Other matters: 1. Iranian parliament passes anti-infiltration bill. 2. Israels post-war economy recovers rapidly, with Q2 GDP surging 15.4%. 3. Iranian Army Commander-in-Chief: $30,000 reward for capturing or killing US troops. 4. Iran claims three pilots have been detained by Qatar; Qatar denies this. 5. Israeli security sources revealed that the Israeli military is preparing for a possible escalation of the situation in Lebanon. 6. Israeli Defense Minister: We will not leave any unresolved issues on any battlefield; we will do everything in our power to protect our soldiers and citizens. 7. Iranian media Fars News: The Deputy Political Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that their actions have so far been defensive; however, they may shift to offensive tactics in the future. 8. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that Qatar should allow an Iranian team of experts to investigate the missing pilots disappearance, instead of denying that the pilot was detained. 9. Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Qatar, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan issued a joint statement condemning Israels rejection of US President Trumps plans for Gaza.On August 17th, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" on August 16th, welcoming the recent signing of a joint defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Trump stated that the agreement demonstrates strengthening unity in the Middle East, enabling countries to defend themselves in a "more effective way." He also congratulated the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, calling the agreement a "bold and important first step."US President Trump: I am unhappy that the United States agreed to conduct joint military exercises with South Korea a long time ago. I have instructed Secretary of War Hergsays to significantly reduce joint military exercises.US President Trump: I am very pleased to see that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have finally signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

The USD/JPY advances somewhat above 134.00 as negative sentiment and Fed worries combine with rising interest rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 20, 2023 11:18

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USD/JPY establishes an intraday high towards the middle of 134.00 as it gains bids to reverse the previous day's decline from a multi-day high on Monday morning. In doing so, the Yen pair reflects the broad US Dollar gain amid fairly gloomy sentiment and the US and Canadian vacations.

 

Nonetheless, geopolitical concerns about China, North Korea, and Russia have recently weighed on market sentiment, despite the short calendar and absence of US/Canadian traders restraining momentum.

 

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan over the weekend, reviving concerns that the hermit kingdom is up to something that could endanger the global economy. This is partly owing to the fact that both rockets were classified as tactical nuclear assault weapons.

 

In a similar vein, the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi did not appear to have repaired US-China relations. Possible cause is a comment by a Chinese envoy that the United States must change course and restore the damage caused to Sino-American ties by the indiscriminate use of force. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed earlier positive readings of employment and output statistics and raised US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) views and the aforementioned risk-negative factors may be comparable.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently observed, as reported by Reuters, "We are observing an abundance of contradictory economic data." As reported by Reuters, Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, claimed that they are detecting some inflationary progress due to the normalization of demand.

 

It should be underlined that the mixed leaning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new monetary policy board and chatters of more inflation in Japan likely to place a floor under the Yen.

 

Among these trades, the S&P 500 Futures print small losses even as Wall Street closed neutral. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the DXY to register a three-week advance.

 

For forward, Japan’s National Core Inflation figures will join the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product to steer immediate USD/JPY fluctuations. Yet, the most attention will be paid to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.