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On September 19th, local time, US President Trump, while meeting with British Prime Minister Starmer at Chequers, the British Prime Ministers country residence, stated that the US is attempting to reclaim Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. At a press conference, Trump criticized the previous US administrations decision and actions regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He said, "We are working hard to get it back."On September 19th, market analyst Haruya Ida reported that Japans core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, a significant decline from July but still well above the Bank of Japans 2% target. Overall CPI also reached 2.7% in August, with the core CPI excluding fresh food and energy remaining at a high 3.3%. Fluctuations in fresh food and energy prices are driving inflation, and the Bank of Japan should be far from complacent about inflation. The latest inflation data is not expected to impact todays Bank of Japan decision, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged. However, the central bank will remain vigilant, with a possible rate hike in October or December. Todays focus will be on the Bank of Japans policy announcement and a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to announce the next interest rate cut in February, followed by quarterly rate cuts, reaching a terminal rate of 3% by the end of 2026.Futures data from September 19th showed aluminum prices recently surging and then retreating, reaching a peak of 21,020 yuan/ton, a new high for the year. As of September 18th, the spot price of A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month-over-month and up 5.06% year-over-year. Key influencing factors: 1. Macroeconomic factors: The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September to 4.00%-4.25%. The dot plot suggests three rate cuts this year, fulfilling market expectations. Coupled with the dollar indexs post-dip recovery, aluminum prices surged and then retreated. 2. Fundamentals: Supply is performing well, with capacity utilization approaching 96%. Concentrated arrivals in some consumer areas have hindered inventory destocking. On the demand side, demand in the downstream sheet, strip, and foil sectors has recovered well, with aluminum bar and profile consumption also improving. Processing plant operating rates have increased to varying degrees, leading to a steady overall improvement in demand and strengthening support for prices. Looking at the future market, it is expected that the demand for stocking up before the holiday next week will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate and strengthen, with the reference range being 20,600-21,200 yuan/ton.Goldman Sachs: No longer expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates in 2025, having previously predicted a rate cut in November.

The USD/JPY advances somewhat above 134.00 as negative sentiment and Fed worries combine with rising interest rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 20, 2023 11:18

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USD/JPY establishes an intraday high towards the middle of 134.00 as it gains bids to reverse the previous day's decline from a multi-day high on Monday morning. In doing so, the Yen pair reflects the broad US Dollar gain amid fairly gloomy sentiment and the US and Canadian vacations.

 

Nonetheless, geopolitical concerns about China, North Korea, and Russia have recently weighed on market sentiment, despite the short calendar and absence of US/Canadian traders restraining momentum.

 

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan over the weekend, reviving concerns that the hermit kingdom is up to something that could endanger the global economy. This is partly owing to the fact that both rockets were classified as tactical nuclear assault weapons.

 

In a similar vein, the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi did not appear to have repaired US-China relations. Possible cause is a comment by a Chinese envoy that the United States must change course and restore the damage caused to Sino-American ties by the indiscriminate use of force. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed earlier positive readings of employment and output statistics and raised US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) views and the aforementioned risk-negative factors may be comparable.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently observed, as reported by Reuters, "We are observing an abundance of contradictory economic data." As reported by Reuters, Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, claimed that they are detecting some inflationary progress due to the normalization of demand.

 

It should be underlined that the mixed leaning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new monetary policy board and chatters of more inflation in Japan likely to place a floor under the Yen.

 

Among these trades, the S&P 500 Futures print small losses even as Wall Street closed neutral. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the DXY to register a three-week advance.

 

For forward, Japan’s National Core Inflation figures will join the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product to steer immediate USD/JPY fluctuations. Yet, the most attention will be paid to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.