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Market news: Venezuela is taking steps to revive dollar sales.U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 3.00% on the day, currently trading at $3.034 per million British thermal units.On January 17th, sources said the U.S. Department of Energy is exploring a plan to exchange U.S. medium-sulfur crude oil for Venezuelan heavy crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Trump administration is seeking to ship Venezuelan crude to storage tanks at the Louisiana offshore oil port and from there to refineries. Sources said that in exchange for Venezuelan crude, the companies involved would provide U.S. medium-sulfur crude that can be directly stored in the Strategic Reserve. In the past, the government has used this exchange method to release and acquire oil. Typically, in such operations, oil refiners would borrow crude oil from the Strategic Reserve for a short period due to events such as hurricanes or temporary supply disruptions, and then return it in full, paying an additional premium.The German DAX 30 index closed down 87.88 points, or 0.35%, at 25286.63 on Friday, January 16; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 8.89 points, or 0.09%, at 10230.05 on Friday, January 16; the French CAC 40 index closed down 54.18 points, or 0.65%, at 8258.94 on Friday, January 16; European... The Stoxx 50 index closed down 14.99 points, or 0.25%, at 6026.15 on Friday, January 16; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 59.93 points, or 0.34%, at 17702.63 on Friday, January 16; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 83.27 points, or 0.18%, at 45766.50 on Friday, January 16.On January 17th, U.S. Treasury prices fell as Trump hinted at nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed Powell, and traders reduced their expectations for two U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasuries pushed the two-year yield up as much as 5 basis points to 3.61%, the highest level since the Feds last rate cut in December. Following Trumps comments on Hassett, short-term interest rate contracts reflected a decreased probability of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year. Meanwhile, the Treasury market continued to be troubled by the December jobs data released a week earlier, prompting Wall Street banks that had previously predicted a rate cut at the Feds next meeting on January 28th to abandon that view. Morgan inflation economists predict that despite the change in Fed leadership, the Fed will not cut rates further. John Fath, managing partner of BTG Pactual Asset Management U.S., said, "The previous trade was betting that whoever becomes the next Fed chairman will be dovish. That has reversed in the last few days."

The USD/JPY advances somewhat above 134.00 as negative sentiment and Fed worries combine with rising interest rates

Daniel Rogers

Feb 20, 2023 11:18

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USD/JPY establishes an intraday high towards the middle of 134.00 as it gains bids to reverse the previous day's decline from a multi-day high on Monday morning. In doing so, the Yen pair reflects the broad US Dollar gain amid fairly gloomy sentiment and the US and Canadian vacations.

 

Nonetheless, geopolitical concerns about China, North Korea, and Russia have recently weighed on market sentiment, despite the short calendar and absence of US/Canadian traders restraining momentum.

 

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward Japan over the weekend, reviving concerns that the hermit kingdom is up to something that could endanger the global economy. This is partly owing to the fact that both rockets were classified as tactical nuclear assault weapons.

 

In a similar vein, the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi did not appear to have repaired US-China relations. Possible cause is a comment by a Chinese envoy that the United States must change course and restore the damage caused to Sino-American ties by the indiscriminate use of force. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, US representative to the United Nations, declared on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales followed earlier positive readings of employment and output statistics and raised US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. The hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) views and the aforementioned risk-negative factors may be comparable.

 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman recently observed, as reported by Reuters, "We are observing an abundance of contradictory economic data." As reported by Reuters, Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve, claimed that they are detecting some inflationary progress due to the normalization of demand.

 

It should be underlined that the mixed leaning for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) new monetary policy board and chatters of more inflation in Japan likely to place a floor under the Yen.

 

Among these trades, the S&P 500 Futures print small losses even as Wall Street closed neutral. It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury bond yields jumped to the highest levels since early November in the last week and helped the DXY to register a three-week advance.

 

For forward, Japan’s National Core Inflation figures will join the second reading of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product to steer immediate USD/JPY fluctuations. Yet, the most attention will be paid to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.