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On December 19th, according to Futures News, crude oil prices continued to rise slightly, and the news in the fuel oil market improved somewhat. However, the supply and demand of various products still differed, and refineries shipped at different paces. Market participants lacked confidence in future trading, and most purchases were small orders for immediate needs. It is expected that fuel oil trading will continue to be stable in the short term.On December 19th, Goldman Sachs predicted that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three times in 2026. Previously, the bank had predicted cuts in February, April, and July; it has now revised its forecast to March, June, and September. Goldman Sachs pointed out that slowing hiring, rising unemployment risks, and easing wage pressures are the main reasons supporting rate cuts. Although the market is currently pricing in a relatively moderate pace of rate cuts, if data confirms weakening economic activity and anchored inflation expectations, the Bank of Englands rate cuts could be more aggressive than investors anticipate. For the market, a deeper easing cycle could put pressure on the pound while supporting UK risk assets.SK Hynixs gains widened to 2.5% in early trading.The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) reported that UK car production fell 14.3% year-on-year in November, with 65,932 passenger and commercial vehicles produced.The UKs GfK consumer confidence index for December was -17, compared to a forecast of -18 and a previous reading of -19.

Prior to UK/US PMI, GBP/USD Justifies Monday's Bearish Doji to Drop to 1.2000

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:18

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In the early hours of Tuesday morning, GBP/USD retests intraday lows at 1.2020 as traders celebrate the return of Western traders after a lengthy weekend owing to American holidays. In addition to the return of the entire market, the traders of the Cable pair express concern over the Brexit deal negotiations and worries regarding the trust of small industries.

 

Late on Monday, the UK Times claimed that British Ministers are willing to resign over (Prime Minister) Rishi Sunak's Brexit proposal if it undermines Northern Ireland's position inside the United Kingdom. The Times said that "the hostility of euroskeptic Tory lawmakers to the accord is rising."

 

In another article, The Times quotes a Barclay's industrial poll to show that small business owners are becoming more hopeful about the future. The same adds to evidence that the United Kingdom's economic outlook may not be as grim as feared and stated in the press.

 

Concerns of a monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) appear to be weighing on the GBP/USD exchange rate, as seen by the week's mixed British results and the robust American data.

 

Notwithstanding this, yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes are near their highest levels since early November 2022, with bids hanging around 3.86 percent.

 

Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns emanating from China and Russia appear to enhance the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

The initial figures of the S&P Global PMIs for February will be crucial for GBP/USD traders. To stabilize prices, however, favorable news from the United Kingdom is essential, since recent US Treasury bond yield movements have favored the US Dollar ahead of the most critical US PMIs.