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March 1st - Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, stated, "With markets poised to open on Monday, the Iranian conflict has pushed up geopolitical risk premiums. The initial market reaction is largely predictable: safe-haven assets like gold may gap up, while oil prices could strengthen due to supply disruption concerns. Risk assets and high-beta currencies... may face initial volatility, especially if news reports suggest potential retaliation or regional spillover effects."March 1st - At the start of the Year of the Horse, many provinces have released detailed rules and regulations for their car trade-in programs. Statistics show that since February 10th, more than five provinces, including Hunan, Qinghai, Henan, Fujian, and Jiangxi, have successively issued detailed rules and regulations for their car trade-in programs. Currently, all provinces in mainland China have released detailed rules and regulations for the 2026 national car subsidy program. A comprehensive review shows that the subsidy details released by various provinces are largely the same. The policy implementation period is from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026. The subsidy program is divided into scrapping and replacement. The scrapping subsidy standard is as follows: for scrapping a qualified old car and purchasing a new energy passenger vehicle, a subsidy of 12% of the new cars sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan; for scrapping a qualified gasoline passenger vehicle and purchasing a gasoline passenger vehicle with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less, a subsidy of 10% of the new cars sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan. The replacement subsidy standards are as follows: For those who replace their vehicles with eligible new energy passenger vehicles, a subsidy of 8% of the new vehicles sales price will be granted, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan. For those who replace their vehicles with eligible gasoline passenger vehicles, a subsidy of 6% of the new vehicles sales price will be granted, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan.Market news: A U.S. air base at Erbil International Airport in Iraq caught fire following an Iranian drone/missile attack.Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft: If the conflict drags on, Washington officials may regret not replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft: Due to a lack of actual production capacity, any headlines tomorrow about OPEC+ increasing production will have a limited impact on oil prices.

As a result of hawkish RBA minutes, AUD/JPY surges to around 93.00

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:20

As the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes revealed a hawkish stance, the AUD/JPY pair surged to near 93.00 during the Tokyo session (RBA). The RBA minutes make it plainly clear that higher interest rates are essential because robust consumer demand prevents the Australian inflation rate from decreasing from its peak.

 

According to the minutes, RBA members considered a 50 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates in light of the persistence of inflation. Members of the RBA also remarked that the unemployment rate is at its lowest point in the past fifty years and that the number of job opportunities is astronomically high, which is a source of happiness for consumers who are injecting surplus income into the economy.

 

Aside from this, the Australian economy benefited from improved trade terms and would benefit more from China's openness than a number of other countries. The Chinese government's relaxation of pandemic laws has expanded Australia's trading potential.

 

Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, anticipates that the cash rate will climb to 3.75 percent over time, with headline inflation decreasing to 4.75 percent by the end of 2023 and returning to approximately 3 percent by the middle of 2025.

 

Previously, S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary Australian PMI (Feb) data. The Manufacturing PMI hit 50.1, above both the consensus forecast of 49.9 and the prior figure of 50.0. The Services PMI increased from 48.4 (estimated) and 48.8 to 49.2. (previously released).

 

About the Japanese Yen, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated, "Due to labor demand and inflation, wage growth is predicted. The Japanese Yen has not notably reacted to the preliminary Jibun Bank PMI (Feb) statistics, which were mixed. The Services PMI has risen to 53.6, surpassing both the consensus expectation of 51.5 and the prior figure of 51.1. While the Manufacturing PMI has declined to 47.4 compared to expectations and the previous reading of 48.9, it remains above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.


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