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March 2nd - U.S. stock index futures opened lower on Monday, with Nasdaq and Dow futures falling more than 1%, and S&P 500 futures falling more than 0.9%.March 2 - International oil prices surged $8 at the open on Monday as escalating tensions between the US and Iran disrupted oil shipments. Brent crude reached a high of $82.37 per barrel, while WTI crude jumped to $75.33 per barrel.Goldman Sachs estimates that if the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lasts for six weeks, there is a time risk premium of $18 per barrel for crude oil prices; if only 50% of the supply is disrupted for one month, the premium will decrease to $4.According to a U.S. official, the United States and Israel have launched attacks on more than 2,000 targets inside Iran to date.1. Monday: ① Data: UK February Nationwide House Price Index (MoM); Switzerland January Retail Sales (YoY); France, Germany, Eurozone, and UK February Manufacturing PMI (Final); UK January Bank of England Mortgage Approvals; US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final); US February ISM Manufacturing PMI. ② Holiday: Seoul Stock Exchange closed. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Japan January Unemployment Rate; Eurozone February CPI (YoY, Preliminary); Eurozone February CPI (MoM, Preliminary). ② Events: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a fintech seminar; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks. ③ Holiday: National Stock Exchange of India closed. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 27; Australias Q4 GDP annual rate; Chinas official manufacturing PMI, RatingDog manufacturing PMI, and RatingDog services PMI for February; Switzerlands CPI month-on-month rate for February; final readings of services PMI for February in France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK; Eurozones PPI month-on-month rate and unemployment rate for January; US ADP employment change for February; final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for February; and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February. ② Events: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) convenes in Beijing; Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, delivers a speech; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem participates in a fireside chat. 4. Thursday: ① Data: French January industrial production month-on-month; Swiss February seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozone January retail sales month-on-month; US February Challenger job cuts; US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28; US January import price index month-on-month; US February global supply chain stress index; US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending February 27. ② Events: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Peoples Congress convenes in Beijing; Saudi Aramco announces its official crude oil prices around the 5th of each month; the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions. ③ Earnings reports: JD.com, Bilibili. 5. Friday: ① Data: UK February Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month; Eurozone Q4 GDP annual rate revised; Eurozone Q4 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter final; US February unemployment rate; US February seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls; US January retail sales month-on-month; US February average hourly earnings year-on-year; US February average hourly earnings month-on-month; US December business inventories month-on-month. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending March 6; Chinas foreign exchange reserves in February. ② Event: Speech by Cleveland Fed President Hamak, a 2026 FOMC voting member, on the safe-haven status of the US dollar.

As a result of hawkish RBA minutes, AUD/JPY surges to around 93.00

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:20

As the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes revealed a hawkish stance, the AUD/JPY pair surged to near 93.00 during the Tokyo session (RBA). The RBA minutes make it plainly clear that higher interest rates are essential because robust consumer demand prevents the Australian inflation rate from decreasing from its peak.

 

According to the minutes, RBA members considered a 50 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates in light of the persistence of inflation. Members of the RBA also remarked that the unemployment rate is at its lowest point in the past fifty years and that the number of job opportunities is astronomically high, which is a source of happiness for consumers who are injecting surplus income into the economy.

 

Aside from this, the Australian economy benefited from improved trade terms and would benefit more from China's openness than a number of other countries. The Chinese government's relaxation of pandemic laws has expanded Australia's trading potential.

 

Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, anticipates that the cash rate will climb to 3.75 percent over time, with headline inflation decreasing to 4.75 percent by the end of 2023 and returning to approximately 3 percent by the middle of 2025.

 

Previously, S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary Australian PMI (Feb) data. The Manufacturing PMI hit 50.1, above both the consensus forecast of 49.9 and the prior figure of 50.0. The Services PMI increased from 48.4 (estimated) and 48.8 to 49.2. (previously released).

 

About the Japanese Yen, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated, "Due to labor demand and inflation, wage growth is predicted. The Japanese Yen has not notably reacted to the preliminary Jibun Bank PMI (Feb) statistics, which were mixed. The Services PMI has risen to 53.6, surpassing both the consensus expectation of 51.5 and the prior figure of 51.1. While the Manufacturing PMI has declined to 47.4 compared to expectations and the previous reading of 48.9, it remains above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.


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