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Real-time News
On April 30th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he would continue serving as a governor after his term as chairman ends in order to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. "I will stay as long as I feel it is appropriate to remain," Powell said at a press conference. He added, "I dont want to be some kind of high-profile dissident or anything like that."FOMC Statement: 1. Statement Overview: The benchmark interest rate was maintained at 3.50%-3.75%; Milan voted for a 25 basis point cut; Hammark, Kashkari, and Logan voted against the "dodging hints" in the policy statement, marking the largest number of dissenting votes at a meeting since October 1992. 2. Interest Rate Outlook: The potentially accommodative language was retained, indicating that the latest information will be carefully assessed when considering the magnitude and timing of "further" adjustments to interest rates. 3. Inflation Outlook: Inflation was described as "high," compared to "slightly high" in the previous statement, and the impact of global energy prices was noted. 4. Economic Outlook: Developments in the Middle East have increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. Job growth has been generally weak. Powells Press Conference: 1. Interest Rate Outlook: In a good position; the number of officials supporting a shift to a neutral bias has increased; a change in the current accommodative stance may be considered at the next meeting; no one is currently calling for a rate hike, and those who disagree with the accommodative stance are not inclined to raise rates; if a rate hike or cut is needed, signals will be sent and action taken; energy and tariff issues need to be observed before considering a rate cut. 2. Inflation Outlook: Inflation is high, with recent inflation expectations rising, partly reflecting rising energy prices; the surge in energy inflation has not yet peaked; the prospect of rising core inflation is realistic; core PCE inflation is projected at 3.2%; tariff inflation should slow this year. 3. Economic Outlook: Economic activity is expanding robustly, but events in the Middle East have increased uncertainty, making the economic outlook highly uncertain. Labor demand has weakened, while showing increasing signs of stabilization. 4. Retirement: After stepping down as chairman, he will continue to serve as a governor in a low-profile capacity for an undetermined period, and will leave the Fed at an appropriate time; he had intended to retire, but government actions left him with no other choice; he will not become a shadow chairman. 5. Market Reaction: From the release of the statement to the end of Powells speech, most asset classes saw minimal movement, with gold fluctuating by $35, 2-year Treasury bonds rising by 2 basis points, and interest rate futures pricing in a full-year rate cut at around 1.5 basis points. April 30th - According to the Wall Street Journal, after Federal Reserve officials sent some hawkish signals, Wall Street traders are betting that the Fed may raise interest rates this year, although the probability is still small. CME interest rate futures data shows that traders see an 11% chance of a Fed rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier in the day and 0% on Tuesday, while the probability of a rate cut hovers around 2%.On April 30, when asked whether the Supreme Courts ruling on the Trump administrations attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook would affect when he leaves the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said, "I hadnt thought about that before, not really." He added that he had served as a Fed governor for six years and knew what the job was like. He stated that it would be a very normal, standard transition process.According to Iranian state television, Iran says that avenging the death of its leader remains on the agenda.
