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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: We will not allow inflation expectations to go off track.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant: Economic growth this year could still easily exceed 3% or 3.5%.U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter: The economic fundamentals remain strong.ECB President Christine Lagarde: It would be a mistake to say we need to ignore the current shocks; it is too early to draw such a conclusion.① Iran 1. Irans Interior Minister instructed border provinces to "eliminate the threat of a maritime blockade." 2. Irans Permanent Mission to Vienna: Claims that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons are a "monumental lie." 3. According to foreign media reports, Iran has begun restoring limited internet connections to some businesses and individuals. 4. Irans Oil Minister: Oil sales have been "favorable" since the outbreak of the war, and some funds will be used to restore industry. 5. An Iranian government spokesperson said that preliminary estimates indicate the US and Israeli military strikes have caused Iran $270 billion in losses. ② United States 1. The US military has increased the number of wounded in the war against Iran to nearly 400. 2. US officials: The US government will terminate sanctions waivers for Iranian maritime oil this week. 3. The US Treasury Department threatened to impose secondary sanctions on financial institutions supporting Iran. 4. The US Treasury Department: Short-term permits allowing the sale of Iranian oil will not be renewed after they expire in the coming days. 5. US officials: Ships seized by the US military and linked to Iran will be towed to a detention area in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean, and a permanent location will be determined. ③ Israel 1. Israel launched airstrikes on the Tyre and Nabatieh regions in southern Lebanon. 2. Trilateral talks between Israel, Lebanon, and the US concluded, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to initiate direct negotiations. 3. US media: The head of Israels intelligence agency, Mossad, stated that he still seeks to overthrow the Iranian regime. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran—① Sources: Iran is considering suspending its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid undermining peace talks. 2. US—① US officials: The Strait of Hormuz is not being completely blocked; only ships entering and leaving Iranian ports are being targeted. ② US officials: More than 20 merchant ships have passed through the strait in the past 24 hours. ③ Vance on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz: We can play this game too. ④ US Central Command: More than 10,000 US troops, more than ten warships, and dozens of aircraft are carrying out the mission of blocking Iranian ports. No ships have broken through the US blockade in the first 24 hours. 3. Other—① Iranian Ambassador to India: Indian oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have not paid passage fees to Iran. ② Sources: A meeting on the Strait of Hormuz, led by France and the UK, will explore the possibility of taking economic measures against Iran if the strait remains closed. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Trump: Talks with Iran "may be held in Pakistan within the next two days." 2. Iran—① An official from the Iranian Embassy in Pakistan stated that a new round of US-Iran talks may be held this week or early next week. Iran will prioritize Islamabad as the location for the new round of talks. ② Iranian lawmakers: Will continue to participate in negotiations while thwarting US plots. ③ Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister discussed the ceasefire and talks. 3. Pakistan—① Pakistani sources said Pakistan is calling for a 45-day extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. ② Pakistani President: Pakistan will strive to ensure the sustainability of the US-Iran peace process. ③ Pakistani Foreign Ministry: We invite the US and Iran to Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the date and time have not yet been determined. 4. Others—① The UN Secretary-General said the US and Iran are very likely to restart peace talks. ② Macron said he has spoken separately with the leaders of the US and Iran, calling for a swift resumption of negotiations and ensuring the implementation of the ceasefire. ⑥ Other Situations: 1. Russian Security Council: The US and Israel may be using negotiations to prepare for ground operations against Iran. 2. According to NBC News, citing an official, Lebanon and Israel agreed during the talks that Hezbollah should be completely disarmed and that Iran should no longer be allowed to influence Lebanons future. 3. Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson: There has absolutely been no discussion between Qatar and Iran regarding paying funds to prevent Iranian attacks on Qatar; any claims of such discussions are untrue.

As a result of hawkish RBA minutes, AUD/JPY surges to around 93.00

Alina Haynes

Feb 21, 2023 15:20

As the Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes revealed a hawkish stance, the AUD/JPY pair surged to near 93.00 during the Tokyo session (RBA). The RBA minutes make it plainly clear that higher interest rates are essential because robust consumer demand prevents the Australian inflation rate from decreasing from its peak.

 

According to the minutes, RBA members considered a 50 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates in light of the persistence of inflation. Members of the RBA also remarked that the unemployment rate is at its lowest point in the past fifty years and that the number of job opportunities is astronomically high, which is a source of happiness for consumers who are injecting surplus income into the economy.

 

Aside from this, the Australian economy benefited from improved trade terms and would benefit more from China's openness than a number of other countries. The Chinese government's relaxation of pandemic laws has expanded Australia's trading potential.

 

Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, anticipates that the cash rate will climb to 3.75 percent over time, with headline inflation decreasing to 4.75 percent by the end of 2023 and returning to approximately 3 percent by the middle of 2025.

 

Previously, S&P Global reported upbeat preliminary Australian PMI (Feb) data. The Manufacturing PMI hit 50.1, above both the consensus forecast of 49.9 and the prior figure of 50.0. The Services PMI increased from 48.4 (estimated) and 48.8 to 49.2. (previously released).

 

About the Japanese Yen, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated, "Due to labor demand and inflation, wage growth is predicted. The Japanese Yen has not notably reacted to the preliminary Jibun Bank PMI (Feb) statistics, which were mixed. The Services PMI has risen to 53.6, surpassing both the consensus expectation of 51.5 and the prior figure of 51.1. While the Manufacturing PMI has declined to 47.4 compared to expectations and the previous reading of 48.9, it remains above the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.


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