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On May 9, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that once a specific trade plan is on the table, she could envision visiting Washington to meet with Trump to discuss trade negotiations. "If I go to the White House, I hope there is a package that we can discuss," von der Leyen said. "It has to be specific, and I hope there is a solution that we can both agree on. Thats what were working on now." Last month, von der Leyen met briefly with Trump at Pope Francis funeral, but a formal meeting has not yet taken place. On Thursday, the European Commission announced that if trade negotiations with the United States fail to produce satisfactory results, the EU will impose additional tariffs on 95 billion euros of US exports. Von der Leyen said on Friday that the EU prefers to resolve the issue through negotiations to avoid tariff escalation, but is developing countermeasures that can be implemented if a "satisfactory result" cannot be reached.On May 9, ECB board member Simkus said that since the eurozone economy has not yet felt the full impact of US tariffs, inflation is expected to continue to slow, but the ECB must further lower interest rates. He said that although economic activity performed well at the beginning, recent geopolitical trends, including US President Trumps trade threats, are bad news. At the same time, he saw "clear anti-inflationary forces" at work. He said, "For me, the June decision was very clear that another rate cut was needed." He said, "It is possible to cut interest rates again after June," although the timing is unclear. The ECB has cut interest rates seven times since June last year, and officials have said they are ready to take more measures as US tariffs threaten economic growth.Federal Reserve Board Governor Kugler: It is not appropriate to use a single indicator to guide the maximum employment target.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: Forward-looking measures are worrying.Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr: The first quarter GDP data was somewhat abnormal.

AUD/NZD falls 60 pips as RBNZ meets market expectations for a 50 bps rate hike

Alina Haynes

Feb 22, 2023 15:18

As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) issued its much awaited interest rate decision early Wednesday morning in Europe, the AUD/NZD pair dropped almost 60 pips to 1.0980. In doing so, the cross-currency pair disregards geopolitical concerns regarding China and North Korea, as well as concerns of a less aggressive RBNZ response in the wake of natural disasters in New Zealand.

 

In spite of this, the RBNZ announced its eleventh rate hike as officials attempt to control inflation fears, increasing the benchmark rate by 0.50 percentage points to 4.75 percent, for a total increase of 1.50 percentage points. In the quarterly Rate Announcement that followed the RBNZ's decision, it was said, "There are early signs of pricing pressures abating." The same should apply to the AUD/NZD currency pair bearish.

 

Other from this, the most notable market sentiment detractors were the remarks of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Notwithstanding this, US Secretary of State Blinken indicated that the United States fears China may provide military help to Russia. Similarities exist between the market issues of the U.S.-Taiwan trade agreement. Russia terminated its nuclear arms agreement with the United States and pledged to maintain its military presence in Ukraine.

 

Meanwhile on Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed both houses of parliament in his state of the nation address to the Russian Federal Assembly. During the speech, Russian President Putin emphasized the geopolitical turmoil surrounding Ukraine by stating, "Our mission is to drive our economy to new horizons." Similarly, US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo indicated on Tuesday, "The United States and its partners will apply additional sanctions this week to continue isolating Russia over the conflict in Ukraine."

 

US 10-year and 2-year Treasury note rates fluctuate near the three-month highs achieved the day before, while S&P 500 Futures record moderate gains despite Wall Street's negative closing price.

 

After monitoring the first reaction to the RBNZ's announcement, AUD/NZD pair traders should focus on risk triggers, particularly those pertaining to China and Russia, to determine the pair's direction. If geopolitical concerns continue to threaten market optimism, the price may continue to decrease.