EUR/USD
1.17440
0.033%
Gold
4331.99
-0.145%
Oil
56.276
-0.743%
USD/JPY
155.922
0.150%
GBP/USD
1.33694
-0.037%
GBP/JPY
208.461
0.119%
Real-time News
December 18th - In the same month that Switzerland and the United States reached an agreement to eliminate high tariffs, Swiss exports to the US expanded. In November, Swiss exports to the US (excluding gold and seasonally adjusted) increased by 7.6% compared to October, while imports from the US decreased by 3.5%. Switzerlands trade surplus with the US increased to 3.4 billion Swiss francs (equivalent to US$4.2 billion) from 3 billion Swiss francs in October.Belgian Prime Minister: The EUs financing plan proposal for Ukraine is still changing.Switzerlands trade balance in November was CHF 3.841 billion, revised from CHF 4.319 billion to CHF 4.203 billion in the previous month.1. Reuters poll: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with 68 out of 91 analysts believing the bank will maintain rates until the end of 2026. 2. Pansen Macro: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with inflation projected to rise slightly in December, potentially prompting the ECB to revise its inflation forecast for next year upward. 3. Societe Generale: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and given the resilience of data and reduced downside risks to inflation expectations, a rate cut in March is no longer anticipated. 4. Goldman Sachs: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and given potentially better future growth and medium-term inflation likely to be in line with the target, we expect the bank to maintain rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. 5. ING: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and while new economic forecasts may not reflect Schnabels assessment of upside risks to growth and inflation, we still believe the ECB will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. 6. State Street Investments: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The market is increasingly focused on whether the bank will raise rates next year. Whether Lagarde directly addresses these discussions or simply mentions them within a relevant context will be crucial. 7. ANZ: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with 25 basis point cuts planned for March and June next year. If the newly added 2028 inflation forecast remains below 2%, inflation will be below target for three consecutive years, a worrying risk. 8. UniCredit: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Lagarde may continue to emphasize that policy depends on data, without specifying the next policy move. The market may believe that the banks inclination to cut rates has disappeared, while a rate hike remains a distant prospect. 9. Lloyds Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The key to policy expectations lies in whether downside risks to growth continue to ease or reappear. Eurozone GDP growth forecasts may be slightly revised upwards, reflecting continued economic resilience. 10. Santander Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and the rate hike cycle may have ended. However, given that inflation risks are tilted to the downside in the first half of next year, the door to rate cuts remains open in the first half, while the possibility of a rate hike in 2027 may increase. 11. Deutsche Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and this meeting may have a hawkish tone. 56% of respondents believe the bank will cut rates again in Q2 or Q3 of next year, while the remaining respondents believe the bank may raise rates in Q4 of next year or Q1 of 2027. 12. Rabobank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and its rate hike cycle has ended. It is expected to keep rates unchanged until early 2027, with rate hikes in March and June 2027.The Swiss franc rose 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 195.96, a record high.
