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January 14th - A growing number of options traders are ruling out a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut and instead betting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout the year. This trend can be traced back to at least last Friday, when US employment data showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. Market pricing suggests this virtually eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month, prompting more traders to postpone their expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services, noted, "From a data perspective, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until at least March has increased, and the likelihood of stable rates increases with each meeting." Recent options flows for the covered overnight funding rate, which is closely linked to the Feds short-term benchmark rate, have sent a more hawkish signal. New options positions are primarily concentrated in March and June contracts to hedge against a continued delay in the Feds next rate cut. Other positions targeting longer-term contracts are expected to profit from the Feds stance of keeping rates unchanged throughout the year. Robin stated that regardless of whether the market believes the Fed will hold rates steady, these trades are low-cost, and as a prudent risk manager, you would want to hold these positions.On January 14th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,698,750 lots, an increase of 633,450 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,018,272 lots, an increase of 19,747 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 322,400 lots, an increase of 118,072 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 231,565 lots, an increase of 869 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 620,866 lots, a decrease of 256,129 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,635,714 lots, a decrease of 7,021 lots from the previous trading day.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The uncertainty and risks of nonlinear shocks remain high, and the outlook faces risks from two aspects.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The ECB is currently in a good position.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The Fed’s actions are worrying.

NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones Analysis – Stocks Retreat As Traders Focus On Recession Risks

Steven Zhao

Jan 19, 2023 17:42

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S&P 500 (SPX500)

S&P 500 found itself under pressure as traders reacted to the disappointing economic data.


Retail Sales declined by 1.1% month-over-month in December, compared to analyst consensus of -0.8%. Industrial Production declined by 0.7%, while Manufacturing Production decreased by 1.3%. Both reports missed analyst expectations.


The PPI report showed that Producer Prices declined by 0.5% in December. Treasury yields tested multi-month lows, as bond traders bet on a less hawkish Fed.


Lower Treasury yields did not provide any support to stocks as traders focused on recession risks. The pullback was broad, and all market segments moved lower. Consumer Defensive stocks were among the worst performers as Retail Sales data indicated that consumer activity was slowing down.

NASDAQ (NAS100)

NASDAQ  declined towards the 11,450 level amid a broad market sell-off. Leading tech stocks have found themselves under pressure, although Apple and Alphabet were almost flat in today’s trading session.


It should be noted that lower Treasury yields provided some support to the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which outperformed S&P 500 and Dow Jones.

Dow Jones (US30)

Dow Jones remained under strong pressure after yesterday’s sell-off. While Goldman Sachs made an attempt to rebound, other Dow Jones components were moving lower.


Honeywell, IBM, and Coca-Cola were among the biggest losers in the Dow Jones today. Currently, Dow Jones is trying to settle below the 33,500 level. In case this attempt is successful, Dow Jones will move towards the 50 EMA at 33,290.