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On January 29th, the US Treasury yield curve steepened for the second consecutive trading day, primarily driven by a weaker dollar and stronger oil prices, both of which boosted inflation expectations. The 2-year/10-year Treasury yield spread widened to 67.6 basis points at one point, up from 66.6 basis points at the close on Tuesday. The yield curve exhibited a typical "bear market steepening" characteristic, where longer-term yields rise faster than shorter-term yields as investors price in the risk of renewed inflation acceleration. Gunnett Dingela, Head of US Interest Rates Strategy at BNP Paribas, stated, "Weaker dollars typically lead to longer-term yields becoming more sensitive to inflation risks. Therefore, the dollar and Treasuries often act as pressure relief valves for the combination of monetary and fiscal policies. If the combination of fiscal and monetary policies suggests that the dollar will continue to weaken, then I think the rise in long-term yields is a textbook reaction."The German DAX 30 index closed down 91.30 points, or 0.37%, at 24,816.93 on Wednesday, January 28; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 55.50 points, or 0.54%, at 10,152.30 on Wednesday, January 28; and the French CAC 40 index closed down 86.14 points, or 1.06%, at 8,066.68 on Wednesday, January 28; European The Stoxx 50 index closed down 62.53 points, or 1.04%, at 5932.06 on Wednesday, January 28; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed down 206.52 points, or 1.16%, at 17597.58 on Wednesday, January 28; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 343.94 points, or 0.76%, at 45096.50 on Wednesday, January 28.The percentage of winning bids for the 4-month U.S. Treasury bonds auctioned as of January 28 was 45.62%, compared to 50.47% previously.The bid-to-cover ratio for the US 4-month Treasury bond auction ending January 28 was 2.92, compared to 2.99 previously.The US 4-month Treasury auction on January 28th yielded a winning bid of 3.59%, compared to 3.58% previously.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Suffer at The Hands of Fear

Jimmy Khan

Jan 20, 2023 11:59

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

During the trading session on Thursday, the S&P 500 E-mini contract somewhat retraced after puncturing the 50-Day EMA very early in the day. We have seen a lot of noise come and go from this market, so it is still unclear whether or not we will continue to move down, but it is definitely worth investigating. It's important to note that we had retreated from both a significant downtrend line and the 200-Day EMA. The sum of all of that suggests to me that although climbing higher will be challenging, it is not completely impossible. Wall Street, after all, has a special flair for snubbing the obvious.


The earnings season hasn't been great so far, and the Federal Reserve will continue to be tighter than most people think. Due to this, the commentators on financial networks will need to promote a fresh "story" to raise the market. The Federal Reserve will have to step in and save everyone because it very probably has to do with declining business profitability. They won't do so as long as inflation is as high as it is in the US, is the short answer to this. In all honesty, the Federal Reserve has no interest in repeating its actions from the 1970s.


Although I believe that ultimately we will search for the 3800 level, there could be a few brief upswings in the meantime. That turns out to be a great chance to start shorting again at the first hint of tiredness. However, I would anticipate that we would go straight towards 4200 if we break over the 4050 mark.


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