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On April 4, the Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the peak of passenger flow during the Qingming Festival. It is expected to send 4.1 million passengers today, 365,000 more than the same period last year, an increase of about 9.8%, and is expected to set a new record for single-day passenger volume. This years Qingming Festival railway transportation will start from April 3 to 7. The Yangtze River Delta Railway is expected to send 17.6 million passengers in 5 days, with an average daily passenger flow of 3.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."

Positive China PMI and IMF growth forecasts pressure mid-0.7000s bears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 31, 2023 16:55

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Due to risk-positive data from China and the International Monetary Fund, AUD/USD challenges the two-day downtrend while gaining bids off the intraday low (IMF). Despite this, purchasers appear to be having difficulty regaining control ahead of this week's high-level central bank summit. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7055 in the early morning hours of Tuesday, following a recent comeback from the intraday low of 0.7038.

 

Recently, the IMF increased its global growth forecasts and predicted that the growth slowdown in developing markets bottomed out in 2022. The global lender also noted a slight improvement in the global GDP forecast for 2023, citing "particularly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, a reduction in energy prices, and the reopening of China's economy after Beijing abandoned its stringent COVID-19 laws.

 

Prior to that, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, compared to 49.7 market expectations and 47.0 previously, while China's Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4, compared to 51.0 market forecasts and 41.6 previously.

 

The recent risk-on profile may have been bolstered by the declaration that the administration of US President Joe Biden is prepared to withdraw the Covid-led emergencies beginning on May 11. Monday, Reuters reported that China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) claimed, "China's current wave of COVID-19 infections is nearing a conclusion, and there was no significant increase in cases during the Lunar New Year holiday."

 

Earlier in the day, the AUD/USD exchange rate was impacted by dismal Australian Retail Sales for December and a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. The fact that Australian Retail Sales declined 3.9% in December, as opposed to the projected -0.3% decline and the previous figure of 1.9%, is noteworthy.

 

S&P 500 Futures exhibit small increases despite Wall Street's lackluster performance, while 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.54% after three consecutive days of gains.

 

The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index for January will be widely monitored for direction in the near future. According to the market consensus, the US Consumer Mood Index may rise, but a forecast lower print of the US ECI, to 1.1% from 1.2%, might bolster the Fed's dovish stance and bring back AUD/USD buyers.


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