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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

As China's official PMI rises, the USD/CNH exchange rate fluctuates below 6.7600

Daniel Rogers

Jan 31, 2023 16:38

The USD/CNH currency pair is experiencing unpredictable volatility as a result of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China releasing strong official PMI data. The Official Manufacturing PMI has hit 50.1, exceeding both the 49.7 consensus expectation and the 49.0 level from the prior month. In addition, the Non-Manufacturing PMI has grown from 51.0 to 54.4. Despite the fact that households were preoccupied with celebrating the Lunar New Year in January, the scale of economic operations in China increased considerably.

 

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which will be issued on Wednesday, will be the catalyst for a ferocious move in the Chinese Yuan. The economic indicators may rise to 49.5, up from 49.0 earlier.

 

As a result of the elimination of restrictions on the movement of people, products, and machines, China's economy is operating at full capacity. According to a Reuters poll, China's economic growth is anticipated to return to 4.9% in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024, as policymakers pledge to bolster support for the COVID-ravaged economy. In addition, the People's Bank of China will cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 5 basis points (bps) in the first quarter of CY2023, according to the survey.

 

In the interim, the risk-off impulse is regaining traction as S&P500 futures have surrendered more than half of the gains made by Asia's early trading session. As the Federal Reserve (Fed) prepares to raise interest rates to achieve its inflation objective of 2%, risk-perceived assets are anticipated to remain volatile. Fed chair Jerome Powell is likely to announce a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hike due to the sharp declines in consumer spending and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States economy.


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