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The Central Bank of Russia: The price discount of Russian Urals crude oil to Brent crude oil widened to 23% in November, compared to 17% in October.November 27th - Eurozone business confidence remained largely stable this month, indicating that the 20-nation economy is growing moderately and has so far withstood the impact of trade tariffs and political uncertainty. Data released on Thursday showed that the economic sentiment index, which measures confidence across several economic sectors, rose to 97.0 in November from 96.8 in October. This is largely in line with economists forecasts, but remains below the long-term average of 100 points. Nevertheless, the index has been climbing since the summer and is currently at its highest level since April 2023. The European Commission stated that confidence in the services sector improved compared to the previous month, but confidence in the industrial sector declined slightly. Consumer confidence remained stable during the month. This survey further confirms that the Eurozone economy is growing at a slow but steady pace towards the end of the year.On November 27, HiDi Microelectronics stated on its interactive platform that its high-performance power management chips have been shipped to ODM manufacturers and are ultimately used in Quark AI glasses products, but the sales volume and amount currently account for a small proportion of the companys total operating revenue.November 27: Building materials transaction volume was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the previous trading day. November 26: Building materials transaction volume was 93,200 tons, a decrease of 8.09% compared to the previous trading day. November 25: Building materials transaction volume was 101,400 tons, a decrease of 22.65% compared to the previous trading day. November 24: Building materials transaction volume was 131,100 tons, an increase of 37.99% compared to the previous trading day. November 21: Building materials transaction volume was 95,010 tons, an increase of 12.41% compared to the previous trading day. Last weeks average: Building materials transaction volume was 99,8304 tons.ECB Governing Council member Kazak said the delayed implementation of Emissions Trading System Phase 2 (ETS2) will suppress inflation, but we should also pay attention to core inflation.

Positive China PMI and IMF growth forecasts pressure mid-0.7000s bears

Daniel Rogers

Jan 31, 2023 16:55

AUD:USD.png

 

Due to risk-positive data from China and the International Monetary Fund, AUD/USD challenges the two-day downtrend while gaining bids off the intraday low (IMF). Despite this, purchasers appear to be having difficulty regaining control ahead of this week's high-level central bank summit. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair rose to 0.7055 in the early morning hours of Tuesday, following a recent comeback from the intraday low of 0.7038.

 

Recently, the IMF increased its global growth forecasts and predicted that the growth slowdown in developing markets bottomed out in 2022. The global lender also noted a slight improvement in the global GDP forecast for 2023, citing "particularly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, a reduction in energy prices, and the reopening of China's economy after Beijing abandoned its stringent COVID-19 laws.

 

Prior to that, China's NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, compared to 49.7 market expectations and 47.0 previously, while China's Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4, compared to 51.0 market forecasts and 41.6 previously.

 

The recent risk-on profile may have been bolstered by the declaration that the administration of US President Joe Biden is prepared to withdraw the Covid-led emergencies beginning on May 11. Monday, Reuters reported that China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) claimed, "China's current wave of COVID-19 infections is nearing a conclusion, and there was no significant increase in cases during the Lunar New Year holiday."

 

Earlier in the day, the AUD/USD exchange rate was impacted by dismal Australian Retail Sales for December and a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. The fact that Australian Retail Sales declined 3.9% in December, as opposed to the projected -0.3% decline and the previous figure of 1.9%, is noteworthy.

 

S&P 500 Futures exhibit small increases despite Wall Street's lackluster performance, while 10-year Treasury yields decline to 3.54% after three consecutive days of gains.

 

The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter (Q4) and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index for January will be widely monitored for direction in the near future. According to the market consensus, the US Consumer Mood Index may rise, but a forecast lower print of the US ECI, to 1.1% from 1.2%, might bolster the Fed's dovish stance and bring back AUD/USD buyers.


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