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On April 4, the Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the peak of passenger flow during the Qingming Festival. It is expected to send 4.1 million passengers today, 365,000 more than the same period last year, an increase of about 9.8%, and is expected to set a new record for single-day passenger volume. This years Qingming Festival railway transportation will start from April 3 to 7. The Yangtze River Delta Railway is expected to send 17.6 million passengers in 5 days, with an average daily passenger flow of 3.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."

NZD/USD fades US inflation-driven increases below 0.64 in anticipation of China trade data

Alina Haynes

Jan 13, 2023 15:04

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During a lackluster Asian session on Friday morning, the NZD/USD consolidates the US inflation-driven advances within a range of 0.6390 to 0.6385. This underscores traders' nervousness ahead of China's December trade data and the initial January readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

 

Notably, the weaker December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fueled expectations of easy rate hikes and depressed the US Dollar the previous day. However, recent reports that the Fed's easy strategy could push the RBNZ to reverse its hawkish stance appeared to weigh on the NZD/USD exchange rate.

 

However, the US CPI for December met expectations of 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% before. In addition, the CPI excluding food and energy maintained the market consensus of 5.7% YoY, as opposed to the previous readings of 6.0%. Notable is the fact that the CPI MoM had its first negative result since June 2020, with a -0.1% figure for the designated month, compared to forecasts of 0.0% and the prior figure of 0.1%.

 

Fed Fund Futures related to the policy rate implied a nearly 100 percent chance of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in February, whilst the odds favoring a 50 bps rate hike in the same month fell to 8%.

 

Notably, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker was the first to predict mild rate hikes after the US CPI, which weighed on the US Dollar. In a similar spirit, Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, remarked that it "makes sense" for the Fed to take a more cautious approach to reducing inflation. However, James Bullard, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, emphasized that the most likely scenario is inflation continuing longer than 2%, thus the policy rate will need to be higher for a longer period of time.

 

Wall Street was able to close in the black despite these maneuvers, while 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond rates reached monthly lows. Notable is the fact that S&P 500 Futures register small gains while 10-year US Treasury rates remain under pressure near 3.44 percent.

 

In the absence of substantial local data or events, the NZD/USD exchange rate may remain muted until China and the United States announce their most significant numbers. If the anticipated data can convince policy hawks in Beijing and Washington, the New Zealand currency could extend its recent slide.


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