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The Malaysian Ministry of Trade stated that the United States has not yet made a final tariff decision regarding Malaysia.June 4th - Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara stated on Thursday that the Japanese government expects the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to implement appropriate monetary policy in close coordination to achieve a sustainable 2% inflation target driven by wage growth. When asked about BOJ Governor Kazuo Uedas remarks on Wednesday, Kihara declined to comment on specific points, only stating that the government and the BOJ have maintained and will continue to maintain "full communication" on occasions such as the meeting between the BOJ governor and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last month. "Specific monetary policy measures should be decided by the BOJ," Kihara said at a regular press briefing, reiterating the governments consistent stance towards the central bank.1. Strong Data Drastically Reduces Rate Cut Expectations: The US ADP nonfarm payrolls for May added 122,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, and the May ISM services PMI hit a multi-month high. The US labor market and consumer spending demonstrated remarkable resilience, significantly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the short term. 2. Tightening Fears Suppress Valuations: Strong economic fundamentals led several Fed officials to adopt a hawkish stance, exacerbating market concerns about maintaining high interest rates or even restarting rate hikes this year. This directly pushed up both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, severely suppressing the valuations of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver. 3. Unpredictable Geopolitical Situation: The Middle East geopolitical situation remains volatile. While there have been reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues, leading to frequent sporadic conflicts. The sharp fluctuations in risk aversion have increased the two-way volatility risk in precious metals markets. 4. Industry Dynamics and Capital Outflows: Russian officials predict gold production will reach 480-500 tons in 2026, far exceeding institutional expectations, with the increased supply putting pressure on gold prices. In terms of capital flows, the worlds largest gold ETF (SPDR) has recently seen outflows, indicating a lack of upward momentum in the short term. 5. Platinum and Palladium End-User Demand Under Pressure: In addition to macroeconomic pressures, high oil prices and the accelerated electrification of automobiles continue to squeeze the market share of traditional gasoline vehicle catalysts, leading to significant pressure on palladium demand. The overall decline in platinum and palladium prices has exceeded that of gold and silver. 6. Zhengxin Futures View: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls report reflects the resilience of the US labor market, providing more confidence for the Federal Reserve to maintain its tightening stance. Gold will mainly be affected by macroeconomic factors in the short term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. However, in the long term, global de-dollarization and strategic reserve demand will continue to provide strong support for gold prices. 7. Nanhua Futures View: With no easing signals on the monetary policy front and even rising expectations of interest rate hikes, precious metals lack significant upward momentum. However, given the prolonged period of high oil prices, it is crucial to pay close attention to signs of economic slowdown. If a "stagflation trade" begins, it will become a key narrative for the next gold price increase. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.)TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Taiwan has TSMC’s best talent, core R&D and largest production base.TSMC (TSM.N) CEO: Global capacity expansion is primarily driven by customer demand and local government support.

GBP/JPY fluctuates below 158.00 before to UK economic data release

Alina Haynes

Jan 13, 2023 14:59

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During the Asian session, the GBP/JPY pair is behaving erratically below the key resistance level around 158.00. As investors anticipate the release of United Kingdom economic data for extra impetus, the cross displays a neutral appearance.

 

Following an announcement by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that the central bank will evaluate the effects of a decade-long loose monetary policy stance on economic growth and inflation, GBP/JPY fell on Thursday.

 

After the central bank widened the range of 10-year Japan Government Bonds, concern of a shift in the BoJ's stance on the price index has increased (JGSs). In a policy statement, the BOJ explained that the purpose of the step was to "improve market functioning and promote a smoother evolution of the entire yield curve while maintaining accommodative financial conditions."

 

In the interim, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), conveyed via Reuters early Friday morning in Asia that the BOJ should adopt a dovish position. The labor unions' demands for wage increases have not produced a meaningful shift. In other words, there is no driver of inflation.

 

Inflation, which continues relatively close to the bank's target of 2%, did not require a change to the central bank's debt yield curve management regime.

 

Investors are monitoring the publishing of economic figures in the United Kingdom. The consensus forecast for Industrial and Manufacturing Production (Nov) is a yearly decrease of between 3.0% and 4.8%. The United Kingdom's industrial activity has fallen steadily during the past four months. If a spate of deceleration diminishes inflationary expectations, the Bank of England's (BOE) officials will face fewer obstacles.


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