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NZD/USD Price Analysis: Protects NZ Inflation-Induced Support Break; 0.6140 in Sight

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:51



During the mid-Asian session on Thursday, NZD/USD bears maintain control at the lowest levels in five weeks while defending New Zealand (NZ) losses caused by inflation near 0.6160. This justifies not only the weaker-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation, but also the recent break of one-month-old horizontal support, which is now immediate resistance, as well as the bearish MACD signals.


As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy purists were unpleasantly surprised by New Zealand's (NZ) first-quarter (Q1) inflation. Despite this, the Quarter-over-Quarter change in the New Zealand Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreases from 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively, to 1.2%.


Following the publication of disappointing data, the NZD/USD pair breached a one-month-old horizontal support level, which is now acting as a barrier near 0.6170. The bearish MACD signals are now directing NZD/USD traders toward a horizontal support level that has been in place for 1.5 months and is located near 0.6140.


If the NZD/USD bears remain dominant above 0.6140, the 2023 low of 0.6085 cannot be ruled out.


The 200-day simple moving average hurdle of 0.6220 becomes crucial for NZD/USD investors to return.


If the NZD/USD pair remains above 0.6220, a run up to the previous weekly high around 0.6315 and then to the monthly high of 0.6386 cannot be ruled out.