EUR/USD 1.17769
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-0.254%
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0.518%
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0.275%
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Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: Tehran is still weighing its response to the US proposal.On May 8th, Adam Salhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, stated that the jobs report was slightly stronger than expected, neither too hot nor too cold. The data wasnt strong enough to trigger more inflation or cause problems for the Federal Reserve, but it was enough to alleviate market concerns about stagflation and an economic slowdown. Ultimately, it all comes down to the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate hasnt risen, and the market can confidently confirm that it remains low for the Fed.On May 8th, Andrew Grantham, an economist at CIBC Capital Markets, stated that Canadas job losses in April and the rise in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.9% indicate an increasing degree of slack in the labor market. Canadas employment decreased by 17,700 in April, with a further decline in full-time jobs being the main drag. In the first four months of 2026, Canadas full-time employment is projected to decrease by approximately 47,000, a drop of about 0.3%. Grantham stated that the increased slack in the labor market should limit the spread of oil price shocks to other goods and services sectors. He added that this data further strengthens CIBCs expectation that the Bank of Canada will maintain a wait-and-see stance in 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: Emphasizes fiscal responsibility to address debt.On May 8th, TD Securities U.S. interest rate strategist, Molly Brooks, stated that the market reaction was in line with their expectations, with a fairly mild response to the higher-than-expected non-farm payroll data. They previously believed that any dovish data—whether it was a rise in the unemployment rate or non-farm payroll data near zero or negative—could trigger a larger market reaction. This report suggests that there is no conflict between the Feds dual mandates. In the short term, they will continue to focus on the inflation mandate, as this mandate is more likely to deviate from its target.

EUR/USD Is Anticipated To Fall Below 1.0950 Due To Market Optimism Regarding US Economic Prospects

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:54

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The EUR/USD pair is expected to decline drastically below the near-term support level of 1.0950 during the Asian session. The major currency pair is attracting bids as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown a recovery move and surpassed the 102.00 level of resistance.

 

S&P500 futures have extended their losses during the Asian session in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to raise interest rates, which could undermine revenue guidance.

 

According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book minutes, economic activity is stable in the majority of districts. However, loans and advances to businesses and consumers have decreased due to stringent credit conditions imposed by commercial banks in the United States in order to prevent uncertainty in an unstable environment.

 

In the interim, Fed policymakers remain optimistic regarding the economic prognosis due to the labor market's tightness. As reported by Reuters, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, advocated for the continuation of the central bank's policy tightening in view of the continued strength of labor market data. A Fed official added that the demand for labor has not yet diminished and that a robust labor market results in robust consumer spending.

 

Citi Group forecasts a fourth-quarter recession in the US economy due to the constrained US labor market. Previously, it was anticipated that the United States would enter a recession during the third quarter of 2023.

 

Investors are anticipating the release of Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) data is anticipated to improve from -19.2 to -18.5. This may be the result of persistently declining inflation in the Eurozone, which reduces the burden on households.


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