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On April 2, DBS published a research report indicating that the recent share price of GCL Technology (03800.HK) is expected to largely follow the cyclical changes in polysilicon prices. In addition, the government may introduce policies to control production or even eliminate backward production capacity, which will become a catalyst for the share price. It is currently expected that GCL Technologys production will drop by 30% this year, and the average selling price of products is expected to increase by more than 10%, offsetting the impact of the decline in production. DBS maintains a buy rating on GCL Technology. Considering that the profit recovery is slower than expected, it lowered its profit forecast for this year from RMB 1 billion to RMB 61 million. It believes that the average selling price will rise and costs will fall, and the profit will rebound to RMB 1.7 billion next year. The target price is lowered from HK$1.35 to HK$1.3.On April 2, market research firm Omdia reported that the annual revenue of the semiconductor market surged by about 25% to $683 billion in 2024. This sharp growth was attributed to strong demand for AI-related chips, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI GPUs, which led to an annual growth rate of 74% in the memory field. After a challenging 2023, the rebound in memory helped boost the overall market. However, this record year masked an uneven performance across the industry. The data processing sector grew strongly, while other key sectors such as automotive, consumer and industrial semiconductors saw revenue declines in 2024. These struggles highlight the weak links in the originally booming market.On April 2, DBS published a research report indicating that the restructuring of Agile (03383.HK) is ongoing, and as a valuable overseas asset in which it holds 45% of the shares, A-Life (03319.HK) may be included in the overseas restructuring plan, and part of the outstanding overseas debts may be offset through credit enhancement or debt-to-equity swaps. Therefore, the restructuring of Agile will put pressure on the share price of A-Life in the near future. In addition, there is still uncertainty as to whether the uncollected receivables from third parties and related parties can be recovered. Considering the limited profit prospects, based on the downward revision of revenue and profit margin forecasts, DBS further lowered the profit forecast of A-Life for this year and next year by 21% to 25%, maintaining the hold rating, and the target price was raised from HK$2.6 to HK$3.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the yen to climb to the bottom of the 140 range against the dollar this year as unease about U.S. economic growth and trade tariffs boost demand for the safest assets. Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs, said the yen would provide investors with the best currency hedging tool if the likelihood of a U.S. recession increases. Reaching the 140 level would mean a 7% increase from current levels, and the banks forecast is more optimistic than the median of 145 in the agencys survey of analysts. "The yen tends to perform best when U.S. real interest rates and U.S. stocks fall at the same time," Trivedi said.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks fluctuated upward, with Leapmotor (09863.HK) rising more than 9%, Geely Auto (00175.HK) rising nearly 5%, NIO (09866.HK) and Li Auto (02015.HK) both rising more than 1%.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD fluctuates within the $30 level as FOMC Minutes approach

Daniel Rogers

Feb 22, 2023 15:16

Gold price (XAU/USD) tests a two-day downturn as it floats around $1,835 at the start of Wednesday. As traders anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the precious metal maintains its trading range of approximately $30.00 from the previous week. Notably, geopolitical concerns and the US Dollar's weak movements around the multi-day peak appear to act as filters for XAU/USD traders.

 

In spite of this, stronger preliminary US S&P Global PMIs for February and hawkish Fed bets supported the US Dollar Index's first daily gain in three days, with the index closing down 0.07% intraday near 104.11 at the latest.

 

However, the weak movements of US Treasury bond yields near the three-month high reached the day before appear to have stifled the XAU/momentum USD's of late.

 

The hawkish bias around the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and rumors of an impending policy flip may also test Gold traders.

 

In addition, comments by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian President Vladimir Putin have an impact on market mood and the price of gold, as both imply an escalation of tensions between Moscow and Kyiv, in which the West and China have recently played an indirect role. But, the absence of substantial updates in Asia appeared to have halted the risk-averse sentiment.

 

US 10-year and 2-year Treasury note rates oscillate around the three-month highs established the previous day, while S&P 500 Futures post modest gains despite Wall Street's negative closing price.

 

In the near future, conflicting sentiment and caution ahead of the FOMC Minutes could maintain XAU/USD on a precarious floor, but the hints for a Fed policy reversal will be sufficient to recall Gold purchasers.