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Ryanair: Due to the conflict in the Middle East, uncertainty remains regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Europe has ample aviation fuel supplies.On May 18th, Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that U.S. Treasuries have been a poor diversification tool since the end of February. They noted, "The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict with Iran and supply shocks remain major obstacles to the ability of nominal duration to suppress daily portfolio volatility, which could sustain a high risk premium in the near term." However, the analysts believe that the priced-in growth optimism in risk markets and the more pronounced accumulation of inflation risk premiums on the yield curve enhance the value of U.S. Treasuries as a medium-term hedge.May 18th - According to the latest survey by TrendForce, strong demand for AI chips has led to a tight supply of high-end MLCCs, compressing the supply of consumer MLCCs and prompting some distributors to engage in preventative stockpiling. Suppliers have responded by adjusting prices. Recent negotiations between ODMs and suppliers also show that the average price reduction for overall MLCCs has hit a near three-year low, indicating that the MLCC price cycle has reached a critical point of reversal and upward movement.The Ukrainian Foreign Minister said he had a constructive and substantive call with the Hungarian Foreign Minister.On May 18th, Citigroup Wealths Chief Investment Officer, Kate Moore, stated that while the long-term outlook for equities remains positive, global markets may be entering a period of consolidation after a strong rally. Moore noted that despite ongoing concerns about the Middle East conflict, persistent inflation, and crowded investor positions, the markets resilience in recent months has exceeded investor expectations. "In the past few weeks, the market has been focused on genuinely strong corporate earnings and the upward revisions to spending expectations that companies are talking about when they talk about earnings, which has made everyone very optimistic," Moore said. "Sometimes it feels like the market can only focus on one thing at a time," and "for some, the market rally since the March lows has been uncomfortably strong." She warned that investors may be underestimating the risks facing the second half of the year. "One of them, of course, is related to the ongoing geopolitical and energy crisis in the Middle East," Moore said. "Secondly, theres the spread of inflation, and I dont think enough people are incorporating that factor into their expectations for the fundamentals in the second half of the year."

WTI Price Analysis: On track for $72.50 despite recent recovery

Daniel Rogers

Feb 23, 2023 14:50

 截屏2023-01-13 下午5.17.06.png

 

During the early hours of Thursday, WTI crude oil gains bids to retest its intraday high near $74.40. In doing so, the black metal posts its first daily gains in three days while rebounding from a two-week low.

 

Despite this, the energy benchmark remains on the bears' radar as it flirts with two-week-old prior support near $74.45-50.

 

The bearish MACD signals and the sustained trading below the 50-DMA, which is currently around the $78.00 round figure, also support the bearish Oil price outlook.

 

Even if the WTI surpasses the $78.00 barrier, a downward-sloping resistance line from early November 2022, near $78.50 at the time of publication, could serve as the Oil sellers' last line of defense.

 

It is worth noting that multiple peaks marked in late January around $82.50-$70 and the high of last December of $83.30 could also challenge the WTI bulls.

 

In the meantime, the commodity's new decline may target the horizontal area containing multiple lows marked since the beginning of January, between $72.65 and $50.

 

Nonetheless, the late 2022 lows of $70.30 and the $70.00 round number could join the nearly oversold RSI (14) conditions to challenge the Oil skeptics in the future.

 

WTI remains on the bears' radar until it surpasses the $83.30 barrier on a daily closing basis.

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