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On September 15th, RBC Chief Economist Francis Donald and his team stated that despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-Canada trade, they remain cautiously optimistic about the Canadian economic outlook. Donald predicts that the Canadian economy will grow at a rate below 2% this year and next. However, she believes that with stagnant population growth, the Canadian economy is actually performing stronger on a per capita basis. The resource-rich western provinces are becoming the main drivers of economic growth. Due to concerns about rising energy prices and improving economic conditions, RBC expects the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates four times next year, bringing the policy rate to 3.25%. However, the risk that the first rate hike may not occur until later in 2026 is increasing.On September 15th, according to a European Commission document, the EU will propose a restriction banning children under 15 from using social media, video-sharing platforms, AI chatbots, and online games. This will be the most comprehensive plan the EU has proposed to date to protect children from online risks. This EU proposal is part of the "EU Kids Act," and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU technology chief Henna Verkunin will announce the plan on Thursday. Von der Leyen may reveal some details in her annual EU policy speech on Wednesday. The document states: "The EUs approach should allow minors to enjoy the enormous potential of digital services while preventing them from being abused and commercialized online. It is necessary to limit the ability of technology companies to access and influence children, rather than the other way around, limiting the children themselves." The European Commissions proposal will also cover video game platforms and allow for phased access restrictions on different services based on age. Furthermore, the obligations imposed on businesses will depend on the type of service and the childs age.French Foreign Minister Barro: Russias attack on the railway near the Ukrainian-Polish border is unacceptable; the targeted train was only a few hundred meters from the EU and NATO borders. This move is intended to deter us. But as a united nation, Europeans are invincible. Finland and Sweden joining NATO is proof of this.Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliaments Committee on International Trade: The EU and Canada should form a "team of fairness and partnership" to counter the international order model increasingly influenced by pressure, dependency, and the rule of power. We should promote this idea to countries that seek reliable partnerships, rather than dependency and political pressure.According to Al Jazeera: Israel launched an airstrike on Mansouri in the Tyre region of southern Lebanon.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery appears elusive amid conflicting Fed and geopolitical worries

Daniel Rogers

Feb 23, 2023 14:53

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Early on Thursday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to reduce weekly losses near $1,827. As a result, the yellow metal posts its first daily gain in four days as the US dollar declines.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the weekly high, down 0.16% intraday to 104.35, as US Treasury bond yields lack momentum during Japan's holidays. Bond coupon retracement from the multi-day high has also contributed to the DXY's recent loss of ground. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields halted a two-day uptrend the previous day before settling at 3.92 and 4.72 basis points, respectively.

 

According to the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), both of these indices have retreated from their most recent peaks, which may be the cause of the movements.

 

After the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes revealed that policymakers discussed slowing the rate rise trajectory if necessary, the inflation expectations received significant attention. However, the widespread discussion on the need for additional rate increases and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams challenge the Fed's dovish bias.

 

Joseph Biden, the president of the United States, may also be to blame for the recent mildly optimistic sentiment and the recent correction in the Gold price. According to recent remarks by US President Joseph Biden, he believes that his Russian counterpart is not prepared to use nuclear weapons by abandoning an international treaty. However, the fears surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict are far from dissipating, with the most recent round of negotiations between the West and China exacerbating the situation. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported recently that the United States is considering releasing intelligence on China's prospective arms transfer to Russia. Previously, China-Russia relations appeared to have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, as the United States firmly criticized such moves and favored a rush towards risk avoidance.

 

S&P 500 Futures rebounded from the monthly low amid these trades to post modest gains near 4,020.

 

Prior to Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, geopolitical headlines and secondary data from the United States will be crucial for generating new momentum.