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On January 7th, UBS analysts noted in a report that European oil giants may slow their quarterly share buyback pace. Analysts believe that companies may use this opportunity to reassess their capital frameworks in conjunction with updated earnings outlooks. Shell, listed in London, is expected to see the most significant reduction, with its quarterly buybacks falling from $3.5 billion to $3 billion. BP should be able to maintain its buyback levels using cash proceeds from asset divestitures; the British oil giant had previously cut its quarterly buybacks from $1.75 billion to $750 million early last year. Furthermore, Total Energy of France is expected to reduce its buybacks from $1.5 billion to $750 million. Analysts also indicated that Eni of Italy and Statoil of Norway may announce reductions in their buyback amounts on their respective capital markets days.January 7th - Since the imposition of sanctions on Venezuela, U.S. refineries have increased their crude oil imports from Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and the Middle East. This increased U.S. imports from Venezuela will replace some of these crude oil supplies, primarily from Canada. Canada aims to increase oil production to record levels by 2025 and export approximately 90% of its crude oil to the United States. A refining industry source stated, "At a time when Venezuela is struggling, Canadian heavy crude oil has filled the market gap. Now, different grades of crude oil will compete, which is beneficial for the U.S. refining industry but detrimental to Canada." Randy Olenburg, Managing Director of Barmos Capital Markets, stated that the long-term growth in Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on Canadian oil prices and further highlight the need to build a new Canadian export pipeline to the Pacific coast.The UKs December construction PMI came in at 40.1, below the expected 42.5 and the previous reading of 39.4.On January 7th, Futures reported that driven by the continued rise in prices of upstream polysilicon, silicon wafers, and solar cells, some leading companies raised their N-type module prices, sending a clear signal of price support. However, actual transactions did not follow suit. Currently, it is the traditional off-season at the end of the year, with most large-scale domestic projects nearing completion and overseas shipments slowing due to the Spring Festival and holidays. End-users have extremely low acceptance of price increases. Most buyers are choosing to wait and see or suppress prices to fulfill previous low-priced orders, making it difficult to implement new quotes, resulting in a "high price but no sales" market. Low-priced goods below 0.68 yuan/watt are still circulating in some channels, further suppressing the potential for price increases. In the short term, while the module segment has cost support, it lacks effective demand. If end-user projects fail to start as scheduled after the Spring Festival, high prices may be unsustainable. The core contradiction in the current market remains the resolute price increases from upstream suppliers and weak downstream demand. Whether prices can truly stabilize depends on the pace of demand recovery at the end of the first quarter.On January 7th, Alibabas (09988.HK) Gaode Maps announced an upgrade to its "Street View Ranking," launching a "Flying Street View" feature based on its self-developed world model technology and expanding the rankings coverage from food to more scenarios. For small and micro-sized merchants, Gaode announced a support plan, stating that the platform will cover the computing costs to provide free access to the aforementioned "Flying Street View" feature for 1 million small and micro-sized merchants. In addition, Gaode plans to cooperate with 100 cities nationwide, lowering the entry threshold for merchants while providing resources such as data analysis and travel subsidies. Currently, Shanghai, Sichuan, Jinan, and other cities have already launched related cooperation.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD recovery appears elusive amid conflicting Fed and geopolitical worries

Daniel Rogers

Feb 23, 2023 14:53

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Early on Thursday morning in Europe, the gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to reduce weekly losses near $1,827. As a result, the yellow metal posts its first daily gain in four days as the US dollar declines.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the weekly high, down 0.16% intraday to 104.35, as US Treasury bond yields lack momentum during Japan's holidays. Bond coupon retracement from the multi-day high has also contributed to the DXY's recent loss of ground. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields halted a two-day uptrend the previous day before settling at 3.92 and 4.72 basis points, respectively.

 

According to the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), both of these indices have retreated from their most recent peaks, which may be the cause of the movements.

 

After the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes revealed that policymakers discussed slowing the rate rise trajectory if necessary, the inflation expectations received significant attention. However, the widespread discussion on the need for additional rate increases and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams challenge the Fed's dovish bias.

 

Joseph Biden, the president of the United States, may also be to blame for the recent mildly optimistic sentiment and the recent correction in the Gold price. According to recent remarks by US President Joseph Biden, he believes that his Russian counterpart is not prepared to use nuclear weapons by abandoning an international treaty. However, the fears surrounding the Ukraine-Russia conflict are far from dissipating, with the most recent round of negotiations between the West and China exacerbating the situation. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported recently that the United States is considering releasing intelligence on China's prospective arms transfer to Russia. Previously, China-Russia relations appeared to have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, as the United States firmly criticized such moves and favored a rush towards risk avoidance.

 

S&P 500 Futures rebounded from the monthly low amid these trades to post modest gains near 4,020.

 

Prior to Friday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, geopolitical headlines and secondary data from the United States will be crucial for generating new momentum.


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