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The Hong Kong dollar 1-week interbank offered rate (HIBOR) saw its biggest drop since May.January 2nd - The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index is projected to surge over 60% by 2025. Benjamin Goy, Head of European Financial Research at Deutsche Bank, stated, "European banks are well-capitalized, with most, if not all, in a state of significant excess capital." The core issue facing bank management is how to manage this excess capital. Share buybacks and dividends are common methods with relatively low execution risk. However, Goy predicts that the focus will shift to external growth, particularly M&A activity, in 2026. "This is precisely what the industry has lacked for the past decade. Management confidence is returning, investor support is growing, and announced deals typically boost earnings per share, explaining why acquiring companies share prices often rise. We expect such activity to increase further."Nasdaq futures rose 0.58%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.39%.Hong Kong stocks saw the Hang Seng Index rise over 2%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rise over 3.5%, Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) rise over 11%, Baidu (09888.HK) rise nearly 8.5%, Kingdee International (00268.HK) rise nearly 7%, and Li Auto (02015.HK) and NetEase-S (09999.HK) both rise over 6%.January 2nd - The Fourth Session of the 16th Shanghai Municipal Peoples Congress will be held in early February 2026. The proposed agenda includes: hearing and deliberating the work report of the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Government; reviewing and approving the Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Shanghai; reviewing and approving the report on the implementation of the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Plan and the draft 2026 National Economic and Social Development Plan of Shanghai, and approving the 2026 National Economic and Social Development Plan of Shanghai; reviewing and approving the report on the implementation of the 2025 Budget and the draft 2026 Budget of Shanghai, and approving the 2026 Shanghai Municipal Budget; hearing and deliberating the work report of the Standing Committee of the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Congress; hearing and deliberating the work report of the Shanghai Higher Peoples Court; hearing and deliberating the work report of the Shanghai Municipal Peoples Procuratorate; and other matters.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD maintains rises above $1,900; downside appears bolstered by robust yields

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 14:56

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) exhibits a sideways auction profile above the round-level support of $1,900.00. The precious metal is able to maintain a price above $1,900.00. Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, made hawkish remarks that boosted US Treasury yields. However, the downside appears to be supported by the rising yields.

 

According to Fed officials, the economy has passed the inflation peak, but we are still far from the Consumer Price Index median (CPI). Therefore, a premature retreat from interest rate hikes is undesirable. 

 

Meanwhile, market volatility is increasing as risk-perceived assets lose traction. Futures on the S&P 500 have accelerated their losses, indicating that the risk-aversion theme is gaining traction. A drop in market participants' risk appetite has impacted the demand for US government bonds. This has caused 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.54 percent.

 

In the future, investors will pay close attention to the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) (December) and monthly Retail Sales (December) statistics. According to estimates, the headline PPI (Dec) is anticipated to decline to 6.8%, while the core PPI is anticipated to decline to 5.9%. In addition, monthly Retail Sales statistics may indicate a 0.1% growth as opposed to the 0.6% decrease previously reported. A rise in Retail Sales statistics could increase the likelihood of a rebound in inflation estimates.