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On April 11, Iranian First Vice President Aref posted on social media that if Iran negotiates with the "America First" US representatives in Islamabad, Pakistan, it is likely to reach an agreement beneficial to both sides and the world. However, if facing the "Israel First" US representatives, no agreement will be reached, and "we will inevitably continue to defend ourselves more resolutely than ever before, and the world will pay a greater price."Market news: Local authorities said that drone debris crashed at night in an area of an oil depot in Russias Krasnodar Krai, causing a fire that has been extinguished.April 11th - According to foreign media reports, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has decided to increase UK defense spending at a faster pace than currently planned in an effort to counter potential leadership challenges. The UKs defense spending has fallen behind allies such as Germany, and the government had previously set a target of increasing core defense spending to 3.5% of economic output by 2035. The decision to increase defense spending is essentially finalized, but specific details are still pending. The UK Treasury insists that any significant increase in defense spending must be achieved through tax increases or spending cuts.On April 11, the Japanese government approved an additional subsidy of 631.5 billion yen (approximately US$4 billion) to accelerate Rapiduss entry into the highly competitive field of artificial intelligence chip manufacturing. This funding aims to support Rapiduss business operations for IT company Fujitsu. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry stated on Saturday that the additional funding brings the total amount of government funding and investment in the startup to 2.6 trillion yen (approximately US$16.3 billion) in the current fiscal year (ending March 2027). The ministry said an external committee has inspected Rapiduss wafer fab in northern Hokkaido and approved its technological progress. The newly established chipmaker began developing wafers using 2-nanometer technology last year, aiming to mass-produce cutting-edge semiconductors by 2027 and help Japan reduce its reliance on industry leader TSMC.April 11th - A Bank of America research report indicates that the Eurozone is far more sensitive to oil prices than the United States. The study found that a 10% shock to oil prices would have an inflationary impact of approximately 40 basis points and a corresponding growth impact of over 10 basis points. Both of these effects are roughly twice that in the United States. We believe this result is due to the higher proportion of energy in Europes consumption basket and the regions status as a net importer of oil.

WTI crude oil prices remain subdued in the mid-$79.00 range with fresh recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Jan 19, 2023 15:00

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WTI crude oil maintains losses near $79.50 on Thursday morning, following a steep decline from the 1.5-month high the previous day. In doing so, the black gold struggles to justify expectations of increased energy demand from China amidst fresh US economic downturn concerns. The stronger U.S. dollar and recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could also be placing downward pressure on the energy benchmark.

 

The previous day, declining US data rekindled fears of an economic slowdown and weighed on Oil prices. In spite of this, US Retail Sales posted a 1.1% MoM decline in December, compared to a -0.8% market projection and a -1.0% prior reading (revised). On the same note, the Producer Price Index plummeted to its lowest level in six months with a -0.5% MoM figure, compared to a -0.1% MoM figure that was anticipated and a 0.2% MoM result from the previous month (revised).

 

In spite of this, Fed members remained hawkish as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard stated that US interest rates must rise higher in order to reduce inflationary pressures. On the same line, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated that the central bank must restore price stability, "which includes returning to 2% inflation." Recently, Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, advocated for a slower rate of rate hikes but also acknowledged the possibility of a higher rate ceiling.

 

Aside from China, experts at Goldman Sachs anticipated a stronger global economy and preferred more energy consumption from the dragon nation. In recent times, though, worries about the US-China friction have outweighed optimism. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met in Germany on Wednesday, which initially bolstered risk appetite with the BOJ's inactivity. However, the diplomats' mention of the disagreements sparked market fears of a new round of friction between the United States and China. Previously, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) stated that Beijing'should be cautious' as the United States and Taiwan pursue tighter economic ties.

 

The American Petroleum Institute's (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock was 7.615 million compared 14.865 million the week prior.

 

As a result of these bets, Wall Street closed in the red, and yields also declined, but the US Dollar rebounded after falling to its lowest level since late May. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also rebounded from levels that were the lowest since May 31.

 

In the future, risk triggers will be more significant than the weekly oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration, which is predicted to be -1.75M compared to 18.962M previously.


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