EUR/USD 1.14957
-0.965%
Gold 4261.10
-1.617%
Oil 75.142
-0.876%
USD/JPY 160.712
0.166%
GBP/USD 1.32900
-1.013%
GBP/JPY 213.591
-0.847%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 506.51 points, or 0.97%, at 51,493.16 on Wednesday, June 17; the S&P 500 closed down 91.22 points, or 1.21%, at 7,420.13; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 354.69 points, or 1.34%, at 26,021.66 on Wednesday, June 17.June 18th - On Wednesday, following a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed down 5%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1%, and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.1%, and Li Auto (LI.O) fell 3%.June 18th – Warshs first press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman officially concluded, during which he previewed a series of reforms to be implemented at the Fed. One significant change is the establishment of several special working groups to explore more open data collection methods and study how to improve the Feds existing statistical indicator system. During the press conference, Warsh repeatedly emphasized that he would not provide any forward guidance and avoided all questions regarding the future path of interest rates. Furthermore, he did not submit his personal interest rate forecasts in this dot plot and stated that he would not comment on any price fluctuations that occurred in the market during the press conference. Overall, the core message conveyed by Warshs first press conference was: reduce policy guidance to the market, downplay pre-commitments to the interest rate path, and focus more on reforming the Feds systems, data structures, and communication framework.The market has fully priced in two Fed rate hikes by the end of the first quarter of 2027.June 18th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by July is 64.0% (91.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 35.1% (8.9% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 1% (0% before the decision). The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by December is 14.2% (38.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.4% (43.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 33.8% (16.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 13.5% (2.4% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike is 2.1% (0.1% before the decision).

WTI crude oil prices remain subdued in the mid-$79.00 range with fresh recession concerns

Daniel Rogers

Jan 19, 2023 15:00

 101.png

 

WTI crude oil maintains losses near $79.50 on Thursday morning, following a steep decline from the 1.5-month high the previous day. In doing so, the black gold struggles to justify expectations of increased energy demand from China amidst fresh US economic downturn concerns. The stronger U.S. dollar and recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials could also be placing downward pressure on the energy benchmark.

 

The previous day, declining US data rekindled fears of an economic slowdown and weighed on Oil prices. In spite of this, US Retail Sales posted a 1.1% MoM decline in December, compared to a -0.8% market projection and a -1.0% prior reading (revised). On the same note, the Producer Price Index plummeted to its lowest level in six months with a -0.5% MoM figure, compared to a -0.1% MoM figure that was anticipated and a 0.2% MoM result from the previous month (revised).

 

In spite of this, Fed members remained hawkish as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard stated that US interest rates must rise higher in order to reduce inflationary pressures. On the same line, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated that the central bank must restore price stability, "which includes returning to 2% inflation." Recently, Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, advocated for a slower rate of rate hikes but also acknowledged the possibility of a higher rate ceiling.

 

Aside from China, experts at Goldman Sachs anticipated a stronger global economy and preferred more energy consumption from the dragon nation. In recent times, though, worries about the US-China friction have outweighed optimism. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He met in Germany on Wednesday, which initially bolstered risk appetite with the BOJ's inactivity. However, the diplomats' mention of the disagreements sparked market fears of a new round of friction between the United States and China. Previously, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) stated that Beijing'should be cautious' as the United States and Taiwan pursue tighter economic ties.

 

The American Petroleum Institute's (API) Weekly Crude Oil Stock was 7.615 million compared 14.865 million the week prior.

 

As a result of these bets, Wall Street closed in the red, and yields also declined, but the US Dollar rebounded after falling to its lowest level since late May. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also rebounded from levels that were the lowest since May 31.

 

In the future, risk triggers will be more significant than the weekly oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration, which is predicted to be -1.75M compared to 18.962M previously.


Suggestion