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Fitch Ratings: We expect global oil supply to exceed demand in 2026, based on the average annual figure.Fitch Ratings: The current surge in oil prices reflects a temporary logistical supply disruption, rather than a permanent loss of production capacity.Fitch Ratings: The oil market is expected to return to surplus by September 2026. 1. US non-farm payrolls increased by 172,000 in May, exceeding market expectations of 85,000. The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% for the second consecutive month, in line with market expectations. 2. Following the release of the non-farm payroll data, the market priced in further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. US interest rate futures data showed that the probability of a Fed rate hike in December rose from 48% to 63%. 3. Analyst Anstey commented on the US non-farm payroll data: This will undoubtedly completely overturn any reason for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months. If Warsh starts advocating for rate cuts at this months policy meeting, he will look out of place. 4. According to Irans Fars News Agency on the 5th, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team said that reports in Saudi Arabian media that Iran had agreed to transfer some of its enriched uranium reserves to a third country were untrue. The source said that the negotiations between Iran and the US have not yet addressed nuclear-related issues, which have been postponed to be discussed in subsequent dialogues. 5. Lindsay Rosner, Head of Multi-Sector Fixed Income Investments at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, commented on the US non-farm payrolls: Recent data suggests that we are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve does not need to worry about labor market issues. The Federal Reserve will "focus on inflation, and what will ultimately determine the Feds next move will be how long this (Iran) war lasts." 6. Nick Timiraos, the Feds mouthpiece: This jobs report wont completely resolve the debate about the extent to which the Fed should consider raising interest rates later this year, but it does further illustrate that the case for a rate cut in the near term has largely disappeared. 7. According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade of Iran and continued instability in the Persian Gulf region continued to suppress production. OPEC oil production fell by 1.22 million barrels per day in May (half of which came from Iran), to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. 8. The White House: US Middle East envoy Witkov has met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. The two sides agreed to meet again next Saturday. 9. London Bullion Market Association (LBMA): As of the end of May 2026, London vaults held 9,392 tons of gold, an increase of 0.21% from the previous month. 10. US President Trump: The jobs report that just came out is very strong, and the stock market should rise, not fall. This has been the case for the past 200 years. Economic growth does not mean inflation!June 5th - The 4th China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo will be held from June 22nd to 26th, 2026 at the China International Exhibition Center (Shunyi Hall) in Beijing. It is the worlds first national-level exhibition themed on supply chains. During the expo, the China Chamber of International Commerce will hold the inaugural meeting of its Overseas Investment and Cooperation Working Committee on the morning of June 24th (Wednesday) at Hall W1-2 of the China International Exhibition Center (Shunyi Hall). Leveraging the high-end platform advantages of the Supply Chain Expo, the committee aims to empower Chinese enterprises to rationally and orderly expand their cross-border operations.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD maintains rises above $1,900; downside appears bolstered by robust yields

Alina Haynes

Jan 18, 2023 14:56

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During the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) exhibits a sideways auction profile above the round-level support of $1,900.00. The precious metal is able to maintain a price above $1,900.00. Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank, made hawkish remarks that boosted US Treasury yields. However, the downside appears to be supported by the rising yields.

 

According to Fed officials, the economy has passed the inflation peak, but we are still far from the Consumer Price Index median (CPI). Therefore, a premature retreat from interest rate hikes is undesirable. 

 

Meanwhile, market volatility is increasing as risk-perceived assets lose traction. Futures on the S&P 500 have accelerated their losses, indicating that the risk-aversion theme is gaining traction. A drop in market participants' risk appetite has impacted the demand for US government bonds. This has caused 10-year US Treasury yields to rise above 3.54 percent.

 

In the future, investors will pay close attention to the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) (December) and monthly Retail Sales (December) statistics. According to estimates, the headline PPI (Dec) is anticipated to decline to 6.8%, while the core PPI is anticipated to decline to 5.9%. In addition, monthly Retail Sales statistics may indicate a 0.1% growth as opposed to the 0.6% decrease previously reported. A rise in Retail Sales statistics could increase the likelihood of a rebound in inflation estimates.