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Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD pares substantial weekly gains below $22.00 amid conflicting sentiment

Daniel Rogers

Mar 17, 2023 13:47

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Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers from the intraday low to $21.80 on a sluggish Friday as metal traders take a respite following a volatile week amid a light calendar and conflicting sentiments. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD appears poised for its largest weekly gain since the week beginning November 28.


The efforts of global policymakers to allay concerns of the 2008 financial market crisis were met with little enthusiasm, but they were successful in preventing further market losses, so traders remain cautiously optimistic. Nonetheless, contradictory US data and hawkish Fed wagers challenge the optimists.


Ammar Al Khudairy, the chairman of the Saudi National Bank, stated that Credit Suisse's conditions were "sound," joining the efforts of the major US banks to assist the California-based First Republic Bank in avoiding a liquidity crisis and bolstering the risk-on disposition. Credit Suisse plans to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs (CHF) from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to bolster liquidity, and Reuters cites anonymous sources as saying that US institutions are less susceptible to the Credit Suisse scandal. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's assurances regarding the health of the US banking industry and the European Central Bank's (ECB) 50 basis point (bps) rate hike, which was in line with market expectations, also boosted sentiment and enabled the most recent increase in XAG/USD prices.


However, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 192K for the week ending March 10 compared to 205K expected and 212K previously, while the four-week moving average decreased to 196.5K from 197.25K previously. (revised). In addition, Housing Starts increased to 1.45 million in February from 1.32 million in January and 1.31 million predicted by economists. During the same month, Housing Starts increased to 1.524 million from 1.34 million anticipated and 1.339 million previously. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey indicator came in at -23.2, compared to the expected -14.5 and the prior reading of -24.3.


It should be noted that the most recent decline in US inflation expectations, as indicated by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, also benefits the Silver price by exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar.


Ten-year and two-year US Treasury bond yields display a lack of direction while reflecting market sentiment, as yesterday's rebound fails to supplant the two-week downtrend. However, Wall Street ended the day in the black with benchmark indices gaining more than 1.0%, while S&P 500 Futures posted slight losses.


Bloomberg's dissemination of news articles indicating China's sustained economic recovery also challenges Silver Bears.


Traders in metals should keep a watch on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting next week. Prior to that, initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the aforementioned month will be crucial for establishing distinct directions.