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On April 3, Kimberly Clausing, a former Biden administration official and nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, called Trumps tariff announcement on Wednesday "very stubborn and much worse than I expected." "I expected things to be bad, but I didnt expect this level of self-harm. Its shocking that anyone thought this was a good idea. Id be shocked if we can get through this without a recession and Trump doesnt have to reverse his policies."On April 3, some economists worry that if Trump does not quickly cancel the latest round of tariffs, it may push the US economy into a recession. "If the US government implements these higher tariffs without major exemptions, it will be difficult for the economy to digest this. A recession seems more likely." said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys Analytics. Zandi said, "In many ways, the tariffs announced by Trump are even worse than the worst case scenario he envisioned. If they stick to it, I will buckle up and prepare for the impact." Zandi added that on a static basis, tariffs account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tariffs the largest tax increase since the tax increase used to finance the war during World War II.German Automobile Industry Association VDA: The EU must now speed up and make up its mind on the issue of free trade agreement.On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD pares substantial weekly gains below $22.00 amid conflicting sentiment

Daniel Rogers

Mar 17, 2023 13:47

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Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers from the intraday low to $21.80 on a sluggish Friday as metal traders take a respite following a volatile week amid a light calendar and conflicting sentiments. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD appears poised for its largest weekly gain since the week beginning November 28.

 

The efforts of global policymakers to allay concerns of the 2008 financial market crisis were met with little enthusiasm, but they were successful in preventing further market losses, so traders remain cautiously optimistic. Nonetheless, contradictory US data and hawkish Fed wagers challenge the optimists.

 

Ammar Al Khudairy, the chairman of the Saudi National Bank, stated that Credit Suisse's conditions were "sound," joining the efforts of the major US banks to assist the California-based First Republic Bank in avoiding a liquidity crisis and bolstering the risk-on disposition. Credit Suisse plans to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs (CHF) from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to bolster liquidity, and Reuters cites anonymous sources as saying that US institutions are less susceptible to the Credit Suisse scandal. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's assurances regarding the health of the US banking industry and the European Central Bank's (ECB) 50 basis point (bps) rate hike, which was in line with market expectations, also boosted sentiment and enabled the most recent increase in XAG/USD prices.

 

However, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 192K for the week ending March 10 compared to 205K expected and 212K previously, while the four-week moving average decreased to 196.5K from 197.25K previously. (revised). In addition, Housing Starts increased to 1.45 million in February from 1.32 million in January and 1.31 million predicted by economists. During the same month, Housing Starts increased to 1.524 million from 1.34 million anticipated and 1.339 million previously. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey indicator came in at -23.2, compared to the expected -14.5 and the prior reading of -24.3.

 

It should be noted that the most recent decline in US inflation expectations, as indicated by the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, also benefits the Silver price by exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar.

 

Ten-year and two-year US Treasury bond yields display a lack of direction while reflecting market sentiment, as yesterday's rebound fails to supplant the two-week downtrend. However, Wall Street ended the day in the black with benchmark indices gaining more than 1.0%, while S&P 500 Futures posted slight losses.

 

Bloomberg's dissemination of news articles indicating China's sustained economic recovery also challenges Silver Bears.

 

Traders in metals should keep a watch on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting next week. Prior to that, initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the aforementioned month will be crucial for establishing distinct directions.


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