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On May 20th, Futures News reported that the domestic urea market maintained a relatively strong trend from January to April. While price reductions were anticipated in advance of May, the actual decline far exceeded industry expectations, with some producers lowering their ex-factory prices by as much as 100 yuan/ton from their April highs. Amidst this continued weakening trend, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed, with a strong "buy high, sell low" mentality, resulting in generally weak purchasing activity among traders. As of May 19th, the average price of small and medium-sized urea granules in China in May was approximately 1873.68 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from April and down 2.05% year-on-year. In terms of supply, the overall daily output of domestic urea is mainly 210,000-220,000 tons, higher than the same period in previous years. Manufacturer inventories fell to a relatively low level in April, but increased due to slower sales in May, easing the tight supply situation. Currently, demand is in a temporary off-season, with agricultural demand not yet fully released. A moderate rebound in industrial and agricultural demand is expected in June. In addition, exports remain one of the important factors affecting the mentality of business operators. Due to the expectation of increased export quotas in the later period, there may be a slight downward exploration in the short term to find the bottom, and some areas may gradually stabilize and wait and see.On May 20th, at the Alibaba Cloud Summit, the Qwen 3.7-MaX model was released, which has improved the basic performance of the model in terms of language understanding and generation, logical reasoning and calculation, knowledge reserve and common sense, instruction compliance and alignment, and supports multiple Harness frameworks.On May 20th, data from the Securities Industry Association of Japan showed that overseas investors net sold 81.3 billion yen (approximately $512 million) of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds in April, marking the first net outflow since December 2024. Following the Bank of Japans normalization of monetary policy, overseas investors have gained increasing influence in the bond market. Rising borrowing costs have kept policymakers on edge, with Finance Minister Katayama hinting at monitoring market conditions in May while considering supplementary budgets. Shinichiro Kadota, head of foreign exchange and interest rate strategy at Barclays Japan, stated that the foreign sell-off "highlights the vulnerability of the Japanese bond market." " Coupled with concerns about fiscal expansion and the central banks lagging curve, the sell-off is pushing up yields." This week, the yield on Japans benchmark 30-year government bond climbed to its highest level since its inception in 1999. Meanwhile, traditional investors in ultra-long-term bonds, life and property insurance companies, were net buyers of 327.2 billion yen of ultra-long-term bonds last month, becoming net buyers for the first time since July of last year.On May 20, President Xi Jinping held a ceremony at the East Gate Square of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing to welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin on his visit to China.The Korean Labor Council: It is uncertain whether further negotiations will take place before the strike.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD corrects to near $1,970 on UBS-Credit Suisse deal; Fed policy observed

Daniel Rogers

Mar 20, 2023 13:16

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After UBS announced Credit Suisse's rescue plan, the gold price (XAU / USD) corrected to near $1,970. The precious metal is estimating a cushion near the $1,970.00 support, but further correction appears likely.

 

Investors should be aware that market participants have been pouring funds into the yellow metal as a hedge against the volatility associated with a potential banking crisis. The UBS acquisition has mitigated concerns of a global banking crisis. The purchase agreement has signaled that central banks are willing to provide assistance to commercial banks in an effort to restore investor confidence.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating around 103.80 as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The analysts at Danske Bank anticipate that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) despite the recent turmoil and banking sector concerns.

 

S&P500 futures have erased the majority of their morning gains, indicating that the UBS-Credit Suisse agreement is insufficient to calm global banking fears. As the banking debacle has yet to reveal its true colors, negative market sentiment would persist for some time. In the meantime, the UBS-Credit Suisse merger has reduced demand for US government bonds, which were previously regarded as safe-haven investments. This has increased 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.46 percent.