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Frances November trade balance will be released in ten minutes.1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,291,685 lots, an increase of 411,839 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,989,475 lots, an increase of 20,596 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 257,487 lots, an increase of 93,909 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 222,066 lots, an increase of 5,874 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 485,707 lots, a decrease of 13,402 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,605,927 lots, an increase of 9,758 lots from the previous trading day.US President Trump: I have started making money for the US by acquiring sanctioned oil.US President Trump: We will use oil, and we will take oil.BCOM Index Rebalancing Overview: 1. Adjustment Dates: January 9th to January 15th, 2026. 2. Definition: The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is adjusted annually in January, primarily involving weight rebalancing and contract rollover. 3. Purpose: To ensure the index consistently, fairly, and effectively reflects the true investment opportunities in the global commodity market and to maintain diversified asset allocation. 4. Impact: After this adjustment, golds target weighting in the index will decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, meaning approximately 2.4 million ounces (about 6,800 tons) of gold will be sold off within five trading days; silvers weighting will decrease from 9.6% to 3.94%. Market Commentary: 1. Saxo Bank: Index rebalancing highlights the risk of short-term volatility in precious metals during the rebalancing period; any potential weakness could be a buying opportunity. 2. Huatai Securities: During the index rebalancing period, passive selling pressure on silver may be stronger than on gold; however, passive selling does not constitute a reversal signal of the medium- to long-term allocation logic for gold and silver. 3. TD Securities: Expects 13% of total open interest in the Comex silver market to be sold within the next two weeks, leading to a significant drop in repricing. 4. MUFG: Gold prices may face pressure from commodity index rebalancing in the short term, potentially prompting passive funds to reduce positions following last years record rally. 5. Citigroup: Gold futures contracts will see a $6.8 billion outflow due to weighting adjustments in two major commodity indices, with silver futures also experiencing a roughly similar outflow. 6. JPMorgan Chase: The annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index could disrupt the recent strong performance of precious metals, potentially leading to a passive sell-off of approximately $3.8 billion in silver and $4.7 billion in gold positions. 7. Societe Generale: The annual index rebalancing poses a significant risk to silver and gold prices, as they are the two best-performing assets in 2025, and silvers strong rally at the end of last year has placed it at the forefront of anticipated net selling. 8. Deutsche Bank: This index rebalancing may mean that about 2.4 million ounces (about 6,800 tons) of gold will be sold off within five trading days, while cocoa, crude oil, natural gas and diesel are expected to be positively affected.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD corrects to near $1,970 on UBS-Credit Suisse deal; Fed policy observed

Daniel Rogers

Mar 20, 2023 13:16

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After UBS announced Credit Suisse's rescue plan, the gold price (XAU / USD) corrected to near $1,970. The precious metal is estimating a cushion near the $1,970.00 support, but further correction appears likely.

 

Investors should be aware that market participants have been pouring funds into the yellow metal as a hedge against the volatility associated with a potential banking crisis. The UBS acquisition has mitigated concerns of a global banking crisis. The purchase agreement has signaled that central banks are willing to provide assistance to commercial banks in an effort to restore investor confidence.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is fluctuating around 103.80 as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The analysts at Danske Bank anticipate that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) despite the recent turmoil and banking sector concerns.

 

S&P500 futures have erased the majority of their morning gains, indicating that the UBS-Credit Suisse agreement is insufficient to calm global banking fears. As the banking debacle has yet to reveal its true colors, negative market sentiment would persist for some time. In the meantime, the UBS-Credit Suisse merger has reduced demand for US government bonds, which were previously regarded as safe-haven investments. This has increased 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.46 percent.