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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

WTI justifies Thursday's Doji to advance to $69.00 with cautious optimism

Alina Haynes

Mar 17, 2023 13:44

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.10.59_1024x576.png

 

On Friday, WTI crude oil shows modest gains near $68.65 as it recovers from its largest weekly loss since early December. In doing so, the energy benchmark justifies price-positive technical details while also drawing cues from the cautious optimism of the market.

 

Nevertheless, the bullish Doji candlestick formation on the daily chart combines with the oversold RSI (14) line to favor WTI crude oil's rebound from the lowest levels since December 2021. The most recent retreat of the US Dollar as well as prospects of overcoming the concerns of the 2008 financial crisis could bolster the corrective bounce.

 

It should be noted that the Bloomberg-shared headlines indicating China's gradual economic recovery, along with the discussions indicating a continuation of the Oil supply accord by the major energy producers, favor purchasers of black gold.

 

However, US President Joe Biden's drive to utilize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and the looming economic recession concerns emanating from US and European banks appear to impact on WTI prices. US Energy Envoy Amos J Hochstein stated earlier in the day that President Biden is committed to replenishing strategic oil reserves.

 

Notable is that Saudi National Bank's chairman Ammar Al Khudairy's remarks about Credit Suisse's "sound" conditions coincide with major US banks' efforts to assist California-based First Republic Bank in avoiding a liquidity crisis, thereby boosting the risk-on sentiment. Credit Suisse plans to borrow up to 50 billion Swiss francs (CHF) from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to bolster liquidity, and Reuters cites anonymous sources as saying that US institutions are less susceptible to the Credit Suisse scandal. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's assurances regarding the health of the US banking industry and the European Central Bank's (ECB) 50 basis point (bps) rate rise, which was in line with expectations, also boosted sentiment and enabled the most recent increase in the Oil price.

 

On the contrary, a light calendar and the market's lack of faith in global policymakers' efforts to delay the financial crisis appear to drag on the price of oil.

 

Ten-year and two-year US Treasury bond yields display a lack of direction while reflecting market sentiment, as yesterday's rebound fails to supplant the two-week downtrend. However, Wall Street closed in the black with benchmark indices gaining more than 1.0%, while S&P 500 Futures remain lackluster as of late.

 

Moving forward, speculators should keep a watch on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting the following week. Prior to that, initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for the aforementioned month will be crucial for establishing distinct directions.

 


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