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January 21st - Market concerns about a significant increase in Japanese government spending and a resurgence of inflation are causing a break in the traditional correlation between the yen and the dollar and government bond yields, prompting HSBC strategists to change their forecasts for the yens performance in the coming months. HSBC analysts believe there are two catalysts for the current "sudden revaluation" of the yen: first, a substantial rise in Japanese inflation starting in 2022; and second, Sanae Takashis inauguration as president in October. HSBC now predicts the yen will fall to 160 yen to the dollar by mid-year, rather than strengthening to 150 yen as previously expected. Strategists point out that complicating matters is the real possibility that Japanese authorities might intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen if it falls below 160. Analysts believe several potential factors could halt the yens recent decline—the most plausible of which (such as a slowdown in the US economy) is beyond the control of Japanese policymakers.Pan American Silver (PAAS.O): Equity silver production is projected to be between 25 million and 27 million ounces in 2026, and equity gold production is projected to be between 700,000 and 750,000 ounces in 2026.Netflix (NFLX.O) CFO: The company is seeing a range of very attractive investment opportunities and plans to "slightly" increase spending this year. This years spending growth will be higher than in 2025.According to US media MS NOW, US Vice President Vance will hold a roundtable meeting with leaders from various sectors in Minneapolis.Rio Tinto (RIO.N): The average realized price of copper in 2025 is $4.57/lb, and the average realized price of aluminum is $3,318/ton.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.

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