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US-Iran-US Conflict: ① Iran 1. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the resistance front issued warnings to ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 2. Irans Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran demands a complete end to the conflict across the region. 3. A senior Iranian official stated that lifting the freeze on Iranian assets is part of the agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz, but did not provide a specific timetable. 4. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament: Trumps seven social media statements are "all untrue." 5. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We do not support the proposals made by US officials and their media regarding the Iranian nuclear issue. ② The US 1. Trump posted consecutive messages: Iran has fully opened the "Iran Strait," and the maritime blockade against Iran will remain fully effective. The US will obtain all of Irans nuclear "dust." Israel will no longer bomb Lebanon. NATO is useless on the Strait of Hormuz issue. 2. US Central Command: The US military is still "closely monitoring every Iranian port." 3. According to CBS: Trump stated that Iran has agreed to stop supporting proxy groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. 4. The US aircraft carrier USS Ford returned to the Red Sea. ③ Israel 1. Israel announced the basic lifting of wartime restrictions. 2. Israeli Defense Minister: The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is a temporary measure. After the temporary ceasefire ends, the disarmament of Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River will continue. 3. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We will not disclose specific details of what actions we will take in Lebanon in the future. We have not yet completed our actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian Parliament Speaker: We will never relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Iranian Foreign Ministry: The US maritime blockade violates the ceasefire agreement. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: There has been no new agreement between Iran and the United States on the Strait of Hormuz issue. 4. Commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy: The enemy attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, forcing them to retreat. 5. Shipping tracking data shows that almost all ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz turned back on Friday evening local time. 6. Kropp data shows that 24 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. 7. Iranian Foreign Minister: In light of the ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel, Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz to all merchant ships during the ceasefire period. 8. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Non-military vessels are permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 9. US officials stated that the US militarys blockade of Iran remains in effect. 10. The US military stated that 19 ships were forced to return to port during the blockade of Iran, and no ships broke through the blockade. 11. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick: The Strait of Hormuz is open, and ships are passing through. 12. UN shipping agency: Currently verifying the announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to confirm whether it meets the requirements of freedom of navigation. 13. Iranian officials: If the US maritime blockade of Iran continues, Iran will consider this a violation of the ceasefire agreement and will close the Strait of Hormuz again. 14. Iranian domestic media expressed concern about the US Foreign Ministers opening of the Strait of Hormuz. ⑥ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. The US is considering resuming negotiations with Iran in Pakistan within days. 2. Senior Iranian official: Iran and the US are expected to reach a preliminary agreement within days. 3. Iranian official: Iran and the US are drafting a memorandum of understanding to set a framework for a permanent peace agreement. 4. Gulf officials: Trump is eager to end the war and may accept more compromises. 5. US media: The US plans to unfreeze $20 billion in exchange for Iran abandoning uranium enrichment; US-Iran talks may be held in Islamabad on Sunday. 6. Hezbollah parliamentary group in Lebanon expressed "cautious support" for a ceasefire, but emphasized that the ceasefire must be comprehensive. 7. According to CBS: Trump said Iran has agreed to stop supporting Hezbollah and proxy groups such as Hamas. 8. Iranian sources said the next round of US-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on Monday. ④ Other situations: 1. US media: Trump said Israel "banned" bombing of Lebanon; Israel seeks clarification. 2. Lebanese media reported that southern Lebanon is still being shelled after the ceasefire.On April 18, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license related to Russia, allowing the delivery and sale of shipped Russian crude oil and petroleum products, effective April 17. The Treasury Department stated that the authorization is valid until May 16.U.S. Treasury Department: The license allows for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships, starting April 17.U.S. Treasury Department: Issuing general licenses related to Russia.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Reserve stated that the guidance is expected to apply most to banking institutions with assets exceeding $30 billion.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD consolidates above $2,000 as investors await initial US S&P PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Apr 21, 2023 13:52

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During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU / USD) is oscillating above the psychological resistance of $2,000.00. After a gradual increase, the price of gold has leveled off near $2,005.00 as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States.

 

S&P500 futures have added some gains during the Asian session following three consecutive declines. As a result of Elon Musk's price-cutting frenzy, Tesla's revenue projections were gloomy, which dampened market sentiment. Near 101.77, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its correction. The USD Index has been consolidating in a range between 100.90 and 102.03 for the past several trading sessions. Therefore, a move that exceeds the previously specified limit will be considered decisive.

 

The subdued USD index weighs on US Treasury yields as well. The demand for U.S. government bonds has increased as weekly unemployment claims have increased. The number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits rose to 245K, exceeding the consensus estimate of 240K. This indicated a softening in the labor market and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates after the monetary policy meeting in May.

 

In the future, the publication of the preliminary US S&P PMI data will determine the impact of the Fed's rate hikes on the scope of economic activity. According to projections, the Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will decline to 49.0 and 51.5, respectively. A preliminary PMI reading that is weaker than anticipated could impact heavily on the U.S. dollar.