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The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both widened their losses to 1%.US President Trump: We will defend American values. We will support the US military and border guards.July 4: Despite Thursdays fall, gold prices are still expected to rise this week as investors consider the reduced likelihood of a Fed rate cut and lingering concerns about the outlook for global trade. Gold prices traded around $3,330 an ounce this week, up about 1.7%. The previous session closed down 0.9% as U.S. jobs data unexpectedly rose while the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The dollar rose along with U.S. Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices as traders exited their already insignificant bets on a rate cut at the Feds July meeting. So far this year, Fed policymakers have kept key interest rates unchanged, citing the potential for Trumps tariff policy to exacerbate inflationary pressures. Officials also pointed to the generally stable job market as supporting their view that they do not need to rush to cut interest rates.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on July 4 (Friday) down 169.25 points, or 0.7%, to 23,900.69 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on July 4 (Friday) down 39.38 points, or 0.75%, to 5,194.33 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on July 4 (Friday) down 62.96 points, or 0.73%, to 8,585.48 points; the H-share Index opened on July 4 (Friday) down 0.66 points, or 0.02%, to 4,096.8 points.When the Hong Kong stock market opened, the Hang Seng Index opened down 0.7%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index opened down 0.75%; Xpeng Motors (09868.HK) opened down nearly 2%. Its worlds first L3-level computing AI car, Xpeng G7, was recently launched.

EUR/USD falls to 1.0850 as German/US Data escalates the ECB-Fed Conflict

Alina Haynes

Feb 01, 2023 15:32

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Mid-1.0800s intraday support is reestablished for EUR/USD on Wednesday morning, reversing Tuesday's rebound gains. This demonstrates the market's uneasiness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. German economic risks to the EU, as well as mixed data from the United States and fears that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will yet support hawks, might potentially weigh on the currency.

 

The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) climbed 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) on Tuesday, compared to 0.0% expected and 0.3% earlier. The year-over-year statistics were also good for the bloc, topping the market consensus of 1.8% to achieve 1.9%, compared to 2.3% previously. Nevertheless, German Retail Sales decreased 5.3% month-over-month in December, which was substantially worse than expected. Earlier in the week, the German GDP likewise disappointed EUR/USD pair speculators.

 

In contrast, the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter declined to 1.0% compared to market estimates of 1.1% and previous readings of 1.2%. In addition, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index dropped from 108.3 to 107.10 in January. The US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, which rose to 44.3 vs 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings, does not merit substantial attention.

 

Aside from the United States, higher profit reports from industry leaders including General Motors, Exxon, and McDonald's alleviated the economic downturn and lifted Wall Street indices. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all reported daily gains of greater than 1.0% on the previous trading day. In contrast, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day rise and returned to 3.51 percent, while their two-year equivalents plummeted to 4.20 percent.

 

It should be noted that JP Morgan's annual survey uncovered a reduction in inflation fears and a rise in recession fears, which tests the risk profile in the middle of pre-Fed anxiety. In spite of this, the world's largest rating agency, Fitch, forecasts that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) would moderate to the mid-3.0% band in 2023 and the high-2.0% range in 2024, putting pressure on EUR/USD bears.

 

As a result of these variables, S&P 500 Futures see minor losses, while US Treasury bond rates remain sluggish and halt their slide from the previous day. This allows the EUR/USD pair to prepare for the Federal Reserve's dovish rate hike of 0.25 percentage points.

 

While the 0.25 basis point Fed rate hike is virtually expected and has been priced in, EUR/USD traders will also pay close attention to January activity data and Jerome Powell's ability to defend aggressive rate hikes.


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