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On November 30th, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated on Sunday that the recent sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the rapid depreciation of the yen were clearly not driven by fundamentals. "Our position is to issue a warning about such events," Katayama said. She reiterated that currency intervention is still possible in response to excessive yen volatility and speculative movements. This aligns with the September Japan-US joint statement, which stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market. On Monday, the market will closely watch for comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to see if he signals a possible interest rate hike at the Bank of Japans December meeting.The Kurdistan Regional Governments Electricity Department: Operations at the Khormor oil field have resumed, and the transmission of natural gas to the power plant began at 2:00 AM.On November 30th, three OPEC+ representatives indicated that OPEC+ is likely to maintain its first-quarter 2026 oil production levels at its Sunday meeting, a move that would moderate its efforts to regain market share amid growing market concerns about oversupply. Similar comments were made by other sources this week. The organization had been cutting production for years until April of this year, when eight member countries began increasing output to restore market share.November 30th - The 2026 national civil service examination for central government agencies and their affiliated institutions was held today. The Administrative Aptitude Test was held from 9:00 AM to 11:00 AM, and the Essay Writing Test was held from 2:00 PM to 5:00 PM. The 2026 national civil service examination plans to recruit 38,100 people, a decrease of 1,600 from last year. Although the number of recruits has decreased slightly compared to last year, the number of applicants has reached a record high. According to data released by the State Administration of Civil Service, 3.718 million people passed the qualification review by employing units, with a ratio of approximately 98:1 between those who passed the qualification review and the planned recruitment number.On November 30, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Silva issued a statement via social media on the 29th, strongly condemning the US governments actions that threatened Venezuelas airspace sovereignty, calling it a "colonial threat" and "illegal aggression," and announcing that the US actions had forced the suspension of flights for Venezuelan migrants to return home. The statement noted that US President Trump posted a message on social media that day attempting to exercise "illegal extraterritorial jurisdiction" over Venezuela, issuing "orders" over Venezuelan airspace. The Venezuelan government firmly opposes this, believing that it seriously infringes upon Venezuelas airspace sovereignty, territorial integrity, and aviation safety, and is a "hostile, unilateral, and arbitrary act" that violates the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

EUR/USD falls to 1.0850 as German/US Data escalates the ECB-Fed Conflict

Alina Haynes

Feb 01, 2023 15:32

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Mid-1.0800s intraday support is reestablished for EUR/USD on Wednesday morning, reversing Tuesday's rebound gains. This demonstrates the market's uneasiness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. German economic risks to the EU, as well as mixed data from the United States and fears that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will yet support hawks, might potentially weigh on the currency.

 

The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) climbed 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) on Tuesday, compared to 0.0% expected and 0.3% earlier. The year-over-year statistics were also good for the bloc, topping the market consensus of 1.8% to achieve 1.9%, compared to 2.3% previously. Nevertheless, German Retail Sales decreased 5.3% month-over-month in December, which was substantially worse than expected. Earlier in the week, the German GDP likewise disappointed EUR/USD pair speculators.

 

In contrast, the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter declined to 1.0% compared to market estimates of 1.1% and previous readings of 1.2%. In addition, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index dropped from 108.3 to 107.10 in January. The US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, which rose to 44.3 vs 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings, does not merit substantial attention.

 

Aside from the United States, higher profit reports from industry leaders including General Motors, Exxon, and McDonald's alleviated the economic downturn and lifted Wall Street indices. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all reported daily gains of greater than 1.0% on the previous trading day. In contrast, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day rise and returned to 3.51 percent, while their two-year equivalents plummeted to 4.20 percent.

 

It should be noted that JP Morgan's annual survey uncovered a reduction in inflation fears and a rise in recession fears, which tests the risk profile in the middle of pre-Fed anxiety. In spite of this, the world's largest rating agency, Fitch, forecasts that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) would moderate to the mid-3.0% band in 2023 and the high-2.0% range in 2024, putting pressure on EUR/USD bears.

 

As a result of these variables, S&P 500 Futures see minor losses, while US Treasury bond rates remain sluggish and halt their slide from the previous day. This allows the EUR/USD pair to prepare for the Federal Reserve's dovish rate hike of 0.25 percentage points.

 

While the 0.25 basis point Fed rate hike is virtually expected and has been priced in, EUR/USD traders will also pay close attention to January activity data and Jerome Powell's ability to defend aggressive rate hikes.


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