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July 16 - The Indian government announced adjustments to windfall profits taxes on petroleum products, effective July 16. Specifically, the windfall profits tax on diesel exports will increase from 8.5 rupees per liter to 15.5 rupees per liter, and the export tax on aviation turbine fuel will increase from 7.5 rupees per liter to 14.5 rupees per liter; while the export tax on gasoline will decrease from 4 rupees per liter to 2.5 rupees per liter.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that overall U.S. price levels rose moderately. Of the 12 Fed districts, 9 reported moderate price increases, 2 reported stronger increases, and 1 reported a smaller increase, with the overall increase remaining flat or slowing compared to the previous period. The report stated that rising energy, transportation, and raw material costs pushed up business input costs, with some businesses attributing the pressure to the Middle East conflict and tariffs. Consumer prices continued to rise, squeezing the profit margins of some businesses. Market opinions are divided regarding future inflation trends; some expect inflation to remain at current levels, while others believe that declining fuel prices may alleviate the pressure.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that the U.S. job market maintained overall growth. Of the 12 Fed districts, five saw modest, moderate, or significant job growth, while seven remained largely unchanged, an improvement from the previous period where only one district reported job growth. The report stated that employment increased in several sectors, including manufacturing, construction, and retail, but recruiting skilled workers and technicians remained difficult. Job losses occurred in some districts, but the declines were limited. Regarding wages, most districts saw modest to moderate wage growth, with some increases related to companies competing for skilled labor. Furthermore, a few districts saw companies increasingly utilizing artificial intelligence for recruitment screening or to improve employee productivity.July 16th - The Federal Reserves Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity grew slightly to moderately in 11 of the 12 Fed districts during the period from the end of May to June, with the overall growth rate roughly the same as the previous period. The report stated that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers reducing spending on non-essential items and turning to lower-priced goods. Tourism saw some recovery, with World Cup-related travel providing a boost to some regions. Manufacturing maintained moderate growth, with orders increasing in data centers, machinery, and defense. Construction and real estate activity improved slightly, with data center construction being a bright spot. In addition, drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer lending rose moderately. However, agriculture was affected by declining commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most respondents expected the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, but significant uncertainty remained regarding the outlook for fuel costs.The Federal Reserves Beige Book indicated that respondents generally expect the U.S. economy to continue expanding in the coming months, but several districts noted that the outlook for fuel costs remains highly uncertain.

AUD/USD Falls Toward 0.7000 as Weak China Data Increases RBA and Fed Concerns

Daniel Rogers

Feb 01, 2023 15:36

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AUD/USD accepts offers to re-establish intraday low at 0.7040 as market nervousness deepens ahead of Wednesday morning's critical Fed announcement. The Chinese activity statistics provided by the industry group may support the retreat moves.

 

However, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.0 to 49.2, falling shy of market estimates of 49.5. Additionally, the sixth consecutive month of readings below 50 reinforces the negative outlook on Australia's largest consumer.

 

The head of the RBA's Economic Analysis Department, Marion Kohler, stated elsewhere that the bank expects inflation to peak in the fourth quarter of 2022. In contrast, the Wall Street Journal's James Glynn projected that the RBA will deliver a series of rate hikes and retain its aggressive stance at the monetary policy meeting next week.

 

Despite fading inflation fears and persistent recession worries, traders are preparing for today's critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Despite recent poor inflation numbers, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish approach and readiness to defend quick rate hikes make today's Fed meeting intriguing.

 

In this scenario, S&P 500 Futures register moderate losses, while US Treasury bond yields remain sluggish and arrest their slide from yesterday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) receives bids near 102.15 in an attempt to recoup Tuesday's losses.