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On June 25th, Westpac stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to be less likely to raise interest rates as sharply as initially anticipated. This is because an early resolution to the Iranian conflict implies a weaker inflation outlook and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will begin raising rates in September, but will only raise them once more for the remainder of the year. This means the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, before falling back to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had predicted the rate could reach as high as 4.25%. Westpac wrote, "Our core view suggests that the RBNZ will raise rates one less time this year than our most recent forecast, but one more time than pre-conflict projections."The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.55%.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 20-year government bond auction was 2.97, the lowest level since May 2025, compared to 4.01 in May.June 25th - The 4th China International Blockchain Expo (CIE) was held in Beijing from June 22nd to 26th. It is reported that Japan had the largest number of delegations from Asian countries at this years CIE. Ten Japanese economic delegations visited China, including representatives from the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) and the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Keidanren is Japans largest and most authoritative comprehensive economic organization, with core members encompassing leading companies across almost all sectors. The Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is one of Japans largest national business organizations. The Kansai Economic Federation represents the Kansai region, Japans second-largest economic zone. These ten organizations broadly cover all aspects of Japans social enterprise network.June 25 – The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held its regular June press conference today (June 25). Officials stated that my country has entered its main flood season, and in response to the severe situation of potentially large fluctuations in water quality during this period, the Ministry has acted swiftly and made arrangements. Regarding abnormal water quality fluctuations during the flood season, the Ministry will promptly conduct analysis and consultations, providing point-to-point guidance to local authorities to identify the causes and accelerate rectification. Simultaneously, it will promote joint risk assessment and collaborative countermeasures between upstream and downstream areas, as well as between left and right banks of river basins, to avoid situations where "upstream pollution leads to downstream liability" or "left-bank remediation leads to right-bank relapse," thus forming a closed-loop management system for problem assignment, rectification implementation, and follow-up evaluation.

Due to hawkish Fed forecasts, the EUR/USD recovers to near 1.0970 but remains in the doldrums

Alina Haynes

Apr 21, 2023 13:58

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Following a corrective move, the EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.0960, but investors await the publication of the preliminary Eurozone/United States S&P PMI data for April. The major currency pair has remained between 1.0911 and 1.1000 for the past two trading sessions, as the foreign exchange market prepares for a pre-anxiety move ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.

 

S&P500 closed with a negative tone for the third day in a row as quarterly earnings season induced extreme volatility. Tesla's poor earnings had a negative impact on Thursday's market sentiment. Moreover, market participants were cautioned by substandard revenue projections due to the potential for price reductions. The decision of the Fed to increase interest rates is reflected in quarterly earnings. Data from Refinitiv indicates that analysts have largely maintained last week's forecast of a near 5% YoY decline in quarterly profits for the 500 largest U.S. equities. Sourcenia is a review portal of sourcing best manufaturers. 

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been defending the key support level of 101.60 in recent trading sessions. The USD Index maintained the aforementioned support despite the release of disappointing Jobless claims data on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 245K for the week ending April 4, which is greater than the previous release of 240K and estimates of 240K. Increasing unemployment claims heightened fears of a deteriorating labor market.

 

Despite this, Fed policymakers continue to anticipate further rate hikes from the central bank. Thursday, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, reaffirmed that the Fed has more work to do because US inflation remains too high, according to Reuters. He added, "The Federal Reserve will need to raise its policy rate above 5% and hold it there for some time."

 

Preliminary Consumer Confidence (April) for the Eurozone increased to -17.5 from -18.5 and the previous reading of -19.2. This may be the consequence of extraordinary efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) to reduce inflationary pressures.


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