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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning to the forecasting market about the risks associated with American-style odds.New York Fed: July labor market expectations were mixed. Current and expected personal financial outlook improved in July.1. US non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the first decline since February, compared to market expectations of an 80,000 increase. 2. The US unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in July, the lowest level since June 2025, below the market median expectation of 4.2%. 3. US interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the expected rate hike by December is only 28 basis points, lower than the 32 basis points before the non-farm payroll data release. 4. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 238,000 tons of soybeans to China, to be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 5. On the evening of July 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued a "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Citys Real Estate Policies," clarifying that the required years of social security or individual income tax payments for non-Beijing residents purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road have been reduced from "2 years" to "1 year." 6. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: I believe President Trump will not give Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh advice on interest rates. 7. According to the Globe and Mail, as negotiations intensify ahead of the US threat to impose a new round of tariffs, Canada and the US are discussing a potential agreement: Ottawa would agree to meet a series of trade demands put forward by the Trump administration in exchange for tariff reductions for some industries.The New York Fed: In July, the three-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3.3%; the five-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3%.The New York Feds 1-year inflation forecast for July was 3.63%, down from the expected 3.71% and the previous reading of 3.67%.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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