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September 17th - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, but this decline may overstate the health of the labor market. The U.S. Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims in states fell by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ending September 12th, compared with economists consensus forecast of 208,000. This unexpected drop likely reflects data fluctuations during the Labor Day holiday last week. Because public holiday dates are not fixed, it is difficult to adjust for seasonal fluctuations in application numbers. The underlying trend suggests that the labor market has now stabilized after experiencing volatility for most of the summer.Saudi state television: Saudi civil defense officials say Houthi rebels launched a drone at Taif, Saudi Arabia.September 17th - The Federal Reserves interest rate hike triggered a stock market sell-off, but the prospect of tighter monetary policy has not deterred market bulls. Mark Heifel, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that his team remains "positioned for further equity gains while preparing for near-term volatility." He said, "If tightening remains moderate, credit spreads remain stable, and profits continue to grow, this rally should be able to expand to more sectors and regions. We recommend diversifying equity exposure while avoiding over-concentration in areas that are particularly sensitive to interest rates or rely on a single return driver."On September 17th, David Rees, an analyst at Schroders, stated in a report that the Bank of England was right to keep interest rates unchanged. He said that while a rate hike in the fall now seems more likely, the economic situation does not warrant one. "The market may be paving the way for an autumn rate hike, especially if other central banks are also tightening policy, but monetary policy should be guided by the fundamentals of the UK economy, not by global developments," he noted. "This is not an economy in dire need of a rate hike." Rees stated that the greater risk lies in fiscal policy, emphasizing that increased spending could push up domestic inflation, thus triggering a rate hike.The VIX fear index fell to a more than one-week low, last down 2.26 points to 15.45.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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