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On June 15th, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that high energy prices are beginning to spread to other sectors of the economy. She said, "Weve started to see the indirect effects of inflation almost everywhere in recent weeks." The ECB raised interest rates last week for the first time since 2023, as the Middle East war exacerbated price pressures. Officials did not rule out a second rate hike immediately at the July meeting, with policymakers, including Bundesbank President Jean-Claude Nagel, saying that even if the war in Iran ends soon, prices could remain high. However, rising borrowing costs have raised concerns among some ECB watchers about the economic impact. "I hear criticism—often from France, and I understand that criticism—saying, We are taking measures that will stifle economic growth," Lagarde said. "But I must curb inflation if it is awakened, because once inflation gets out of control, it will be much more difficult and costly to bring it back under control. Prolonged inflation is unacceptable for consumers and businesses, and I would have failed in my mission."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Common euro debt is a necessary condition for the success of a capital markets union.On June 15th, Futures reported that the domestic refined oil market showed a divergent trend in early June: retail prices saw a significant decline, but wholesale prices had limited room for further drop and gradually stabilized and began to rise, leading to a narrowing of the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline and diesel from its year-to-date high. As of the close of trading on June 12th, the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline from major domestic oil companies and Shandong local refineries narrowed by 19.09% and 16.85% respectively compared to the beginning of the month; the wholesale-retail price spread for diesel narrowed by 19.93% and 18.77% respectively. However, recent negative news has intensified, and demand has been insufficient, leaving room for further declines in wholesale gasoline and diesel prices. Before the retail price adjustment window opens, the wholesale-retail price spread for gasoline and diesel is expected to widen.Switzerlands producer/import price index fell 0.4% month-on-month in May, compared with 0.80% in the previous month.Switzerlands producer/import price index fell 1.8% year-on-year in May, compared with a previous reading of -2.00%.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.