EUR/USD
1.14093
0.351%
Gold
4094.11
0.998%
Oil
83.156
-6.085%
USD/JPY
163.570
-0.170%
GBP/USD
1.33543
0.251%
GBP/JPY
218.441
0.081%
Real-time News
On July 27th, Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting this week. The impact of this decision will largely depend on how Fed Chairman Warsh articulates the decision and the future policy path. Analysts indicated that if the Fed decides to hold rates steady but fails to provide sufficient guidance on the economic outlook or policy response mechanisms, the currently relatively stable long-term US Treasury yield curve and the controlled inflation risk premium could face volatility risks. Currently, money market pricing indicates a 31.5% probability of a Fed rate hike this week, although the mainstream market expectation remains that rates will remain unchanged.On July 27, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton stated that Iran may have an advantage over the United States in sustaining a protracted conflict because Iran still maintains a large weapons stockpile, while the U.S. is depleting its advanced precision-guided munitions, replenishment of which could take years. Leighton stated, "Iran still possesses a large stockpile of missiles, drones, and rockets." He estimated that despite months of U.S. strikes, Tehran still retains approximately two-thirds of its original weapons stockpile. Leighton added that while the U.S. strikes successfully destroyed command and control centers, weapons systems, and military infrastructure, they did not diminish Irans ability to continue its attacks. He cited an estimate that over 1,400 Patriot interceptor missiles may have been used to date in the conflict with Iran; if this figure is accurate, the U.S. defenses in other regions could become vulnerable while it replenishes its stockpiles.On July 27th, Elmar Voelker, senior fixed income analyst at LBBW, stated in a report that investors may focus on the number of potential dissenting votes in the Federal Reserves interest rate decision on Wednesday. He said, "We believe there could be up to three dissenting votes, as a similar number of votes were cast against the Feds then accommodative forward guidance back in April." Voelker added that if the Fed unanimously decides to adopt a wait-and-see monetary policy stance, it would be a positive surprise for the bond market, as it would shake current market participants consensus that a September rate hike is almost a certainty.On July 27th, BlueBay Chief Investment Officer Mark Dowding stated in a report that investors have every reason to believe that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will tend to make hawkish statements and do everything possible to solidify his reputation as an inflation fighter, although he is unlikely to take any concrete action at present. He stated, "This could lead to a further flattening of the US yield curve in the short term." However, Dowding also pointed out that given the continued deterioration of the US fiscal situation and Trumps escalating spending on Middle East conflicts, these factors could eventually cause the yield curve to steepen again at some point in the future.July 27 – According to The Hill, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy said on Sunday that it “seems unlikely” for Trump to end the war with Iran quickly, and suggested that Trump seek a path to peace from Congress. Cassidy stated, “I do think we need a more comprehensive national discussion about how to move forward. If the president can end this conflict quickly—which seems unlikely, but they still seem to be assuring us that it can be done. Well, that’s fine too.” Cassidy has consistently criticized Trump’s handling of the war, particularly its impact on the cost of living. In May, after failing to retain his Senate seat, Cassidy became one of four Republican senators supporting a war powers resolution that calls for Trump to withdraw U.S. troops deployed in Iran.
