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On September 9th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessenter expressed support on Tuesday for Washington using its financial power as a foreign policy tool to advance the interests of U.S. allies, including playing a role in financial and political affairs abroad. Bessenter stated, "I believe we can use the U.S. balance sheet to advance foreign policy. Therefore, we have a foreign policy goal, which is to build alliances in the Western Hemisphere." He added, "Argentina was the first country to take this approach; we considered the Millais governments policies sound." Last year, the U.S. provided Argentina with a multi-billion dollar aid package to help stabilize its currency and support Millais ahead of the midterm elections. Bessenters remarks mark a public acknowledgment by the Trump administration of its willingness to use U.S. financial resources to influence foreign politics and economics.September 9th - Japanese stocks rebounded on Wednesday as concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East were replaced by a surge in interest in artificial intelligence. The Nikkei 225 was last up 0.35%, after earlier losses, while the broader Topix index rose about 0.24%. Nomura Securities equity strategist Maki Sawada said news of Verizon signing a multi-billion dollar deal with Corning to provide high-density fiber optics for AI infrastructure boosted confidence among Japanese cable manufacturers like Fujitsu. Sawada stated, "Strong performance in semiconductor and AI-related stocks made a positive contribution to the Nikkei 225." Additionally, Japanese stocks were also influenced by a stronger yen, as the market anticipated the Bank of Japan might accelerate its interest rate hikes at its meeting as early as next week, keeping the yen near a near seven-month high. Analysts at Sony Financial Group said in a report, "Since the market seems to have largely priced in the yens appreciation, the market is expected to shift towards buying on dips once the initial selling pressure subsides."Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, London spot precious metals weakened amid volatility. Geopolitical events continued to escalate, with soaring oil prices pushing up inflation expectations and further increasing the probability of a Fed rate hike. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities in Yemen, coupled with the geopolitical standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, caused Brent crude oil to briefly surge above $99 per barrel. As energy is a core inflation indicator, the surge in oil prices has raised market concerns about a rebound in inflation. The market is repricing for a longer period of high interest rates, putting short-term pressure on gold. 2. In terms of news, Canadas $20 billion retaliatory tariffs on the US took effect on Tuesday. Carney stated that he was not seeking an escalation of the trade war but wanted to accelerate the reduction of dependence on the US. Geopolitically, amidst the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Houthi forces launched a large-scale attack on Saudi energy facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, prompting Saudi Arabia to shut down several energy installations. Regarding central banks, Chinas gold reserves at the end of August were 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2386.57 tons), an increase of 650,000 ounces (approximately 20.22 tons) month-on-month, marking the 22nd consecutive month of gold purchases by the central bank. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains around 60%, indicating significant market divergence. However, considering the impact of the US-Iran conflict on oil prices and Warshs hawkish comments, the probability of a rate hike is expected to remain high. Nevertheless, its anticipated that the Fed will raise rates only a limited number of times this year. If a rate hike does occur at the September FOMC meeting, it can be considered a confirmed move, potentially hindering a short-term rebound in gold and increasing volatility, but the overall upward trend may remain intact. The upcoming release of US August PPI and CPI data will likely provide strong guidance for the Feds interest rate decision, and the market may experience increased intraday volatility around these data releases.On September 9th, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC) released the "2026 Report on the Innovation Status of the Top 1000 Private Enterprises in R&D Investment," showing that the R&D investment and intensity of the top 1000 private enterprises in my country continued to grow in 2025. This information was obtained by reporters at the 2026 Private Economy Innovation and Development Conference and the "Well-known Private Enterprises Supporting Zhejiangs High-Quality Development" event, jointly held by the ACFIC and the Zhejiang Provincial Peoples Government in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province. The report shows that in 2025, the R&D investment of the shortlisted enterprises showed an upward trend, reaching a total of 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.72%, with an average R&D intensity of 3.73%. The "high-tech, high-value, and high-growth" attributes were prominent, with 640 shortlisted enterprises being classified as such. The overall scale of the shortlisted enterprises remained stable with continuous growth, total profits continued to increase, the quantity and quality of employees improved, and they actively engaged in rural revitalization and public welfare work.On September 9, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in response to the US militarys strikes on Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, the Revolutionary Guard struck two US warships and eight oil tankers, as well as ten vessels that violated regulations.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.