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On August 21, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Barry Kazzak stated that the ECB is fully prepared to take further action to bring inflation back to its target level from its current "somewhat unsettling" level if necessary. He noted that while consumer price increases are still "hovering around 3%", it is too early to judge the outcome of the ECBs meeting next month. Following the initial rate hike in June, the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point increase in the deposit rate. Kazzak said, "If necessary, we are prepared to act to push inflation back to 2% within a reasonable timeframe. We will meet again in September to assess the data and the economic outlook before making a decision. Given the current situation, further rate hikes have their pros and cons."Germanys preliminary manufacturing PMI for August will be released in ten minutes.On August 21st, S&P Global released a survey on Friday showing that Frances preliminary services PMI fell to 48.4 in August, a two-month low, down from 49.6 in July. Business activity contracted more than expected, with the recent prolonged heatwave dragging down the countrys dominant service sector. The French services PMI also fell short of market expectations of 49.8. Meanwhile, Frances preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August from 49.8 in July, exceeding the expected 50. However, the preliminary composite PMI (covering both services and manufacturing) fell to 48.8 from 49.4 in July, a two-month low, below the expected 49.5. Joe Hayes, senior chief economist for market intelligence at S&P Global, said, "The preliminary August PMI report shows that the French economy has been weak for the second consecutive month. Some businesses, especially in the services sector, pointed to the extreme heatwave as one of the reasons for the decline in activity and demand."On August 21, Chen Hao, Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, stated at a press conference held by the Shanghai Municipal Government that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is a crucial period for the Lingang New Area to transform and leapfrog, and to develop its unique strengths. The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce will support Lingang in further optimizing its two-way investment services for both "going global" and "bringing in" foreign investment. This includes strengthening Lingangs overseas service brand and achieving precise matching between industries and services. Focusing on key industries within the area, and relying on the Shanghai Municipal Enterprise Overseas Comprehensive Service Platform and its Lingang branch platform, the Commission will integrate overseas service resources, accelerate the introduction of a number of high-quality service institutions, and attract more overseas enterprises to establish their headquarters in the Lingang New Area. Simultaneously, the Commission will support Lingang in further improving the innovative supply of cross-border finance, cross-border trade, and offshore trade, creating a more fair, transparent, and predictable investment environment, attracting a number of landmark foreign investment projects, and driving the leapfrog development of industrial momentum through high-quality projects.Frances preliminary manufacturing PMI for August came in at 51.5, the highest in four months.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.