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September 19th - A weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) shows that investor sentiment has further deteriorated, falling to its lowest level since 2025, as oil prices remain high and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time since 2023. The latest survey released by the AAII on Friday shows that 53.3% of surveyed investors are bearish, more than half. Only 28.8% of investors are bullish, the lowest level in a year. Charles Rothbrook, vice president of the AAII, stated in a statement that overall, the difference between the number of bulls and bears in the market has fallen to -24.5%, a level that is "unusually low" and has been below the historical average of 6.5% for the ninth consecutive week. This is also the lowest level of this indicator since May 2025. The latest survey also shows that more than half of the respondents hold higher-than-normal cash allocations, indicating that investors are cautious. Among them, 19.1% of respondents said their cash allocations were "significantly higher than normal."September 19th - According to CBS, shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait continues to be disrupted due to the Houthi rebels recent expansion of influence along the Red Sea coast, resulting in a significant decline in Saudi export shipments. Data from shipping company Kpler shows that in the past seven days, only five ships carrying Saudi products have passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to leave the Red Sea, far below one-third of the average seven-day period this year. The previous weeks record was 11 ships in the week of July 24th. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the most important channels for Saudi oil exports. The Houthi rebels currently state that navigation in the area is not threatened except for Saudi vessels, but the market is concerned that any attacks could reduce shipping companies willingness to use the route. Data shows that the volume of commodity tanker traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has been below normal levels in the past seven days, but has not been completely disrupted.According to Punchbowl, the latest estimates submitted by U.S. Central Command to the Congressional Defense Committee show that, as of September 3, the cost of U.S. military operations against Iran has reached $43.6 billion.According to CBS: Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain sluggish, with weekly traffic volume since early August less than a third of the seven-day average this year.Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: The era of US F-35 and F-15 fighter jets being tracked and attacked has begun. "What used to be a terrible nightmare has now become a reality."

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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