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On August 25th, a CICC research report stated that the markets focus this week is the Jackson Hole meeting and Warshs speech. Warshs previous statement that "let the market raise rates for the Fed" failed to alleviate inflation concerns, and coupled with the ineffective intervention of the Treasury Department, policy credibility has been damaged, leading to a continued rise in US Treasury yields. We expect Warsh to reiterate the risks of inflation and retain the option of raising rates to rebuild credibility, but he will also continue to adhere to his long-term propositions of reducing central bank intervention and decreasing the frequency of communication. We believe that Warsh has not abandoned the policy concept of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," but the premise on which it is based is out of sync with the current reality, requiring coordination and clearer expression. If Warsh can demonstrate sufficient policy flexibility, market concerns about US Treasuries may be partially alleviated, supporting the dollar; conversely, trust will continue to erode, long-term US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and the dollar will be under pressure.The Nikkei 225 index fell by 1.00% during the day.August 25th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Lambda, the AI cloud computing service provider backed by Nvidia (NVDA.O), is in talks for a funding round of up to $3 billion, which could pave the way for its IPO next year. The sources said that Lambda, an "emerging cloud" company that provides chip and other AI infrastructure leasing services, is discussing a funding round at a valuation of up to $12 billion or even higher. They stated that the funding negotiations are still ongoing and the terms of the deal have not yet been finalized. It is understood that Lambda has received multiple investment offers for this round, which, according to company insiders, could pave the way for an initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year. Some sources indicated that the companys revenue this year is expected to exceed $1.5 billion.The Nikkei 225 index opened down 358.16 points, or 0.55%, at 65,169.93 on Tuesday, August 25.Conflict Update: 1. Sources: Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv, Ukraine. 2. Russia claims to have attacked an oil tanker near Odessa, Ukraine. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces shot down 351 Ukrainian drones overnight. 4. Ukrainian military: Attacked a Russian military factory in the Rostov region. 5. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian troops seized three more settlements in Ukraine. In the past 24 hours, "Eastern" forces have inflicted more than 315 casualties on Ukrainian troops. 6. Russian authorities claim a Ukrainian drone attack in the Belgorod region of Russia killed two people and injured two. 7. Russian online retailer Ozon stated that its logistics center in Dagestan caught fire after the drone attack. 8. A Ukrainian drone force commander stated that Ukraine hit a Russian MiG-29 fighter jet and two Russian vessels in the Black Sea. 9. Market news: Sources say the Perm oil refinery in Russia suspended operations after a drone attack on August 21. 10. Kremlin: Russian armed forces are working to identify missile production sites in Ukraine and will take measures to destroy these facilities. Other developments: 1. Russia and Ukraine exchanged 20 prisoners in Belarus. 2. The UK will provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow missile production technology. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky suggested using frozen Russian assets to partially cover the shortfall. 4. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: Proposed stricter sanctions against Russia this autumn. 5. French President Macron: Need to intensify the crackdown on Russias shadow fleet and further coordinate sanctions measures. 6. EU: Todays approval of financial aid to Ukraine is an addition to the already approved €16 billion Ukraine procurement plan. 7. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The latest financial aid to Ukraine will be used to help Ukraine with urgently needed missile defense systems, ammunition, and radar. 8. Ukrainian President Zelensky: Despite Russias attacks and attempts to completely blockade shipping, three to four ships are still entering the port of Veliko Odessa every day. 9. British Prime Minister Burnham: The clear message to Russian President Putin is that Ukraine will never relinquish territory that Russia cannot win on the battlefield. More measures are needed to curb Russian oil and LNG exports. 10. Russian President Putin signed a decree to protect infrastructure. Critical infrastructure owners who fail to secure their facilities in the face of external threats may have them transferred to temporary management. 11. According to Ukrainian media: Due to the Russian attack, the visit to Kyiv by US Middle East envoy Witkov and Trump senior advisor Kushner has been postponed.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.