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The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 0.5 basis points to 1.73%, the highest level since April 1995.Tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, causing a surge in crude oil prices this morning, which is expected to support a higher market opening this week. If the situation in the Middle East continues with both peace talks and conflict, the market is likely to continue consolidating at high levels this week.SoftBank Group shares fell about 4.8%, and Tokyo Electron shares fell more than 4%.On August 31st, Japans industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in July, better than the expected 0.7% decline; retail sales rose 2.4% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year, both significantly exceeding expectations. Manufacturers expect industrial production to grow by 6.4% in August, followed by a 4.2% decline in September. The much stronger-than-expected industrial production data mitigated some short-term downside risks priced into the markets assessment of Japans economic growth prospects. The sharp rebound in retail sales, both month-on-month and year-on-year, indicates that consumer spending performed better than suggested by the decline in June. This is significant for the Bank of Japans ongoing discussion on whether domestic demand can continue to drive inflation. The manufacturers survey indicates that industrial production is expected to grow strongly by 6.4% in August, but will decline significantly in September, suggesting that the current strong performance may be partly due to advance production or a rebound after a previous decline, rather than a genuine acceleration of the industrial cycle. According to the US financial website InvestingLive, combined with US Treasury Secretary Bessants recent remarks that the pace of interest rate hikes is effectively left to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, the resilience of economic growth and consumption further weakens the reasons for the Bank of Japan to postpone further tightening of its policy.The Nikkei 225 index opened down 731.46 points, or 1.10%, at 65,674.10 on Monday, August 31.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.