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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On August 12th, COMEX gold continued its rebound, approaching the 4500 level intraday, closing at $4469.0 per ounce, a gain of 0.63%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but closed lower in the night session, ending with a slight gain of 958.92 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.36%. 1. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday evening, the US July CPI data showed a moderate cooling, rising 3.4% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous value of 3.5%, the lowest level since March; the core CPI year-on-year growth rate narrowed from 2.6% to 2.5%, both indicators were in line with market expectations. This alleviated market concerns about an unexpected rebound in inflation in the short term, but the July CPI and core CPI are still significantly higher than the 2% target, therefore, it cannot completely dispel market concerns about a Fed rate hike in September. Currently, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains around 45%. 1. With increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials, the market is focused on Warshs remarks. His speech at the global central bank conference at the end of August will be exceptionally important and may provide some guidance for the September interest rate decision. 2. Geopolitically, according to Reuters, Iran and the United States remain deeply divided on pushing for a permanent end to the Gulf War. Sources indicate that negotiations between the two sides to restore the interim agreement reached in June and establish a timetable for its implementation have made no progress. US President Trump stated on Wednesday that the US has "complete control" over the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Persian Gulf Straits Authority, established by Iran to manage the waterway, stated that the strait remains closed and will not reopen until Irans conditions are accepted. In the short term, gold prices are gradually becoming less sensitive to geopolitical transactions, but the possibility of rising oil prices driving up inflation expectations remains. Attention should be paid to whether geopolitical tensions escalate further. 3. In the short term, the markets cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike may continue to drive gold prices higher. However, from the end of August to mid-September, the market will repeatedly price in whether the Fed will raise rates in September, requiring caution regarding the sustainability of the gold price rebound.On August 13th, the "Opinions of the CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee and the Guangdong Provincial Peoples Government on Further Leveraging the Leading Role of Standards to Promote High-Quality Economic and Social Development in Guangdong" were released. The Opinions propose to conduct standard planning for future industries. Research and planning of standard systems will be carried out in cutting-edge fields such as embodied intelligence, biomanufacturing, and quantum technology, exploring ways to guide the rapid iteration of leading and disruptive technologies through standardization. Pre-research work on standards will be strengthened to improve the scientific rigor and feasibility of standard development and shorten the cycle of transforming scientific and technological achievements into standards. Support will be given to the establishment of standardization technical organizations for future industries to promote the development and implementation of key standards.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say Mexico is pushing for lower auto tariffs in the USMCA negotiations.On August 13th, the highest 7-day annualized yield of Tencent Wealth Managements "Current Account +" was 1.0610%, and the lowest was 0.6990%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of WeChat Pays "Lingqian Tong" was 1.0020%, and the lowest was 0.9020%. The highest 7-day annualized yield of Alipays "Yuebao" was 1.0090%, and the lowest was 1.9010%.As of 09:30 Beijing time, New York gold futures rose 0.20%, New York silver futures rose 0.40%, and New York copper futures fell 0.69%.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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