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On January 20th, Fitch Ratings stated that after three years of economic stagnation, impacted by external shocks and increasingly severe structural challenges, Fitch forecasts significant fiscal easing will drive the German economy back to growth in 2026. Despite risks regarding public spending implementation and private sector response, there is evidence that investment is recovering from its slump. Charles Seville, Senior Director of Fitchs Economics Team, said, "German capital spending has shown signs of recovery, with real investment returning to annual growth for the first time in three years." The construction sector, which accounts for about half of fixed asset investment, returned to positive year-on-year growth in October. Driven by civil engineering and public works activities, the construction purchasing managers index returned to expansion territory in December for the first time since the beginning of 2022. Furthermore, industrial output, survey data, and order volumes also showed signs of recovery. Industrial output recorded year-on-year growth in November, the only second increase since mid-2023. By the end of 2025, capital goods orders, which typically track investment, and capital goods demand survey indicators linked to production expectations, both showed improvement. Amid persistent external risks, domestic orders have led the recent recovery trend.Fitch: Germany’s massive fiscal easing policies are expected to propel it back onto a growth trajectory in 2026.U.S. stocks pared some of their losses, with the S&P 500 down 1% and the Nasdaq down 1.3%.The German DAX index fell by 1.00% on the day.The main Shanghai silver futures contract fell by more than 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 22,680.00 yuan/kg.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.