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A survey by the Central Bank of Russia predicts that the average benchmark interest rate will be 14.5% in 2026 (unchanged from previous forecasts).On September 2nd, Federal Reserve Chairman Williams stated that bond yields are an important indicator for the Feds assessment of the economic situation. The recent rise in yields was primarily driven by strong economic performance, an optimistic economic outlook, and robust investment demand, with some correlation to the Middle East conflict. However, yields currently do not appear to be significantly affected by the inflation outlook. Williams emphasized that the Fed will consider all economic data comprehensively, and its ultimate responsibility remains price stability, with reducing the inflation rate to 2% being the top priority. Tariffs and the Middle East war are the main factors contributing to current inflation exceeding the target, but a second-degree inflation effect from tariffs has not yet been observed. Inflation expectations remain under control, and recent inflation data is encouraging, showing an overall downward trend, although inflation in the services sector remains significantly high. He stated that the labor market is stable and remains robust, and it is necessary to push inflation back to 2% in the foreseeable future. He hopes to further observe and analyze economic data before making the next policy decision and will continue to gather information for the next FOMC meeting. Williams expressed support for the decisions of the July FOMC meeting, believing that the current interest rate level is appropriate and monetary policy is progressing smoothly.Tensions in the Middle East remain high, with Brent crude oil prices nearing the $96 mark during trading. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion prices of crude oil between domestic and international markets.The US August ADP employment figures were released, showing the smallest increase since January and falling short of market expectations. A quick chart provides a view of the converted prices of gold and silver in the pre-market session.Syria has confirmed to the International Atomic Energy Agency that it will participate in a briefing on nuclear issues from September 7 to 11.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.