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Real-time News
August 17th - Data released on Monday showed that Japans second-quarter real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% annualized quarter-on-quarter, compared to expectations of 0.5% and 2%, respectively. The lower-than-expected GDP growth complicates the process of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Flat private consumption and a sharp contraction in capital spending in the second quarter indicate that the private sector remains cautious about spending, which could lead the Bank of Japan to adopt a more prudent stance at its next meeting, despite persistently high PPI and CPI continuing to pressure policymakers to take action. The yen may face renewed pressure due to the weak economic growth outlook, especially if the market lowers the probability of a September rate hike; meanwhile, government bond yields may decline as short-term tightening expectations weaken. While external demand partially offset this impact, it alone is unlikely to change the overall moderate economic trend.On August 17th, Futures News reported that the 7.7 magnitude earthquake on Flores Island, Indonesia, had a relatively small impact on the aluminum industry chain. In terms of production capacity distribution, bauxite, alumina, and the vast majority of electrolytic aluminum production capacity are concentrated in western Indonesia, generally more than 1400 kilometers from the epicenter. Even the nearest electrolytic aluminum plant—Huaqing Aluminum in Morowali, Sulawesi—is about 624 kilometers away, still outside the 300-kilometer damage radius. Coupled with the tsunami wave height of less than 0.4 meters, the actual supply impact was almost zero. In terms of prices, at most, there will be a short-term sentiment pulse of 0-1%, which is expected to be reversed within 1-3 days, without changing the medium-term trend.The Nikkei 225 index opened 115.75 points higher on Monday, August 17, a gain of 0.17%, to 68,829.55.Japans preliminary annualized GDP deflator for the second quarter was 2.6%, compared to 3.20% in the previous quarter.Japans nominal GDP grew at a preliminary rate of 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, compared with 0.60% in the previous quarter.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.