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September 14th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 13.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 86.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 42.9%.On September 14th, Argentine Defense Minister Carlos Alberto Presti stated on the 13th that the US government has not taken sides in the sovereignty dispute over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). In a media interview on the 13th, Presti said that the US government supports a peaceful resolution to the Falklands sovereignty dispute and has not favored Argentina or the UK.On September 14th, according to the Financial Times, British Prime Minister Burnham will pledge to business leaders on Monday that the government will be a "partner in economic growth" and acknowledges the need for a cultural shift in the UK to encourage entrepreneurship. He will hold a roundtable discussion with entrepreneurs from sectors such as artificial intelligence, fintech, healthtech, manufacturing, and quantum computing, followed by a reception hosted by executives from several large companies at Downing Street. Downing Street stated that the event will focus on how the government can streamline the processes of starting, developing, and investing, while ensuring that any resulting economic benefits reach local communities. On Sunday, Burnham said that the UK has the talent, universities, and visionary communities needed for success, but to unlock its full potential, "We need a cultural shift in how businesses operate in the UK."Conflict Update: 1. Yemeni government forces claim Houthi offensive has resulted in thousands of casualties on both sides. 2. An Iranian cargo ship was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in one death and four injuries. 3. Several explosions were heard in the Sirik region of Hormozgan province, Iran; the source of the explosions is unclear. 4. Yemeni government armed forces: have recaptured positions in western Taiz previously infiltrated by Houthi forces. Strait of Hormuz: 1. British Maritime Authority: A ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. US Energy Secretary: Dont expect a breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz situation anytime soon. 3. A meeting between Iran and Gulf states scheduled for Monday regarding navigation in the strait has been postponed. 4. US Central Command: As of September 13, US forces had diverted 101 merchant ships. Other Updates: 1. Houthi forces claim navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is largely normal. 2. Trump hinted at not ruling out remaining in Iran and taking its crude oil, drawing parallels with Venezuela. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iranian Foreign Minister meets with Cuban Foreign Minister. 4. Iran says the US and Europe urged the IAEA to pressure Iran. 5. Sources: Saudi pipeline disruption could cause a 4% loss in global oil supply. 6. Iranian President: Iran will never surrender; Iran and Saudi Arabia are not at war. 7. Meeting between UAE and Iranian leaders intensifies efforts to resolve the Hormuz deadlock. 8. Iranian President: Talks with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi were good; they agreed to put the past behind them. 9. UAE Foreign Minister confirms to Iraqi Foreign Minister that the UAE supports all measures that contribute to strengthening Iraqs security and stability. According to an Axios global affairs reporter, a senior official from a Gulf state said that Saudi Arabia has submitted revisions to the Oman-Iran proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, as Saudi Arabia is concerned that the proposed wording could effectively establish a new status quo in the strait, which is unacceptable to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.


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