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On September 17th, Goldman Sachs stated that gasoline prices are poised for further increases as tight supply conditions spread in the global fuel market. The bank has adjusted its trading strategy, shifting its focus from diesel to this widely used vehicle fuel. Analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven, noted in a report: "The key reason behind this new recommendation is that refiners are shifting production from gasoline to diesel, leading to a rapid tightening of the gasoline market supply." In a report dated September 16th, analysts stated that while diesel prices may still rise further, gasoline currently offers "greater upside potential" due to factors such as more resilient demand and relative inventory changes. Therefore, the bank closed out previous positions on different diesel contract spreads (i.e., time spreads) and recommended establishing long positions in European gasoline targeting mid-2027.On September 17th, according to the Financial Times, Emulate, a UK-based AI startup founded just one month ago by former DeepMind researchers, is launching a new funding round worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a post-money valuation of nearly $4 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the company is in advanced talks with potential investors, planning to raise up to $700 million, which would bring its valuation to $3.7 billion upon completion. The sources also stated that this massive funding round will be jointly led by prominent UK venture capital firm Index Ventures and Silicon Valley-based Lightspeed Venture Partners.According to the Financial Times, Emulate, a British startup founded by former DeepMind researchers, is raising hundreds of millions of dollars in a new funding round just one month after its founding, with a valuation of nearly $4 billion.On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.