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June 16th - On Monday, local time, the spot delivery price of natural gas at the Wahaha Hub in Texas, a key indicator of shale basin prices, was 35 cents per million British thermal units (MMBtu), marking its first positive close since February and ending a 131-day streak of prices below zero. High temperatures, increased production following maintenance of some pipelines, and recent signs of expansion of key pipelines all contributed to the price increase. This positive news is a good sign for producers such as Pemlin Resources and Devon Energy, which had previously shut down some wells with extremely high gas-to-oil ratios to avoid further financial strain.On June 16th, PGIM, a US asset management firm, held a fringe view that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates three times this year to curb an overheated economy, before reversing the rate hikes in 2027. The firm had previously predicted a rate cut by the Fed this year in April. PGIM stated that the US economy is "exceptionally strong" and inflation remains persistently high, necessitating a new strategy. Given this backdrop, and considering the Feds failure to achieve its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects the Fed to raise rates three times this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. PGIM stated, "If the rate hikes are described as a precautionary measure to address supply-side inflation and recent volatility in long-term Treasury bonds, then Warsh will gain political support." However, PGIM indicated that it expects the Fed to "reverse these rate hikes relatively quickly, implementing three rate cuts in 2027 and another in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%—below current levels and potentially close to the neutral rate."June 16 - According to Irans PressTV, sources revealed that at least three Iranian oil tankers and two cargo ships carrying essential supplies have successfully broken through the US naval blockade. These vessels continued their voyages on Monday evening local time, marking the first practical victory of the newly reached memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. According to sources, these ships, which had been stranded for months under the US blockade, have successfully navigated international waters. This comes less than 24 hours after the US and Iran reached the memorandum of understanding, which calls for an immediate end to the illegal US naval blockade of Iran as part of a comprehensive ceasefire.According to The Information, Qualcomm (QCOM.O) is in talks to acquire Tenstorrent to expand its artificial intelligence chip capabilities.According to Iranian television reports, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian supplies have broken through the US naval blockade.

Ahead of preliminary US S&P PMI data, the XAU/USD remains sideways below $2,000, according to our Gold Price Forecast

Alina Haynes

Apr 20, 2023 13:49

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In the early European session, the Gold price (XAU / USD) is exhibiting erratic movements near $1,994.00. The precious metal is in a state of indecision as investors await the release of preliminary S&P PMI data for the United States on Friday.

 

After violent swings influenced by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing signs of volatility contraction below 102.00. The declining trend of advances to consumer and business loans by U.S. commercial banks has intensified concerns of a recession in the U.S. economy, despite the fact that economic activity in 12 Fed districts remained virtually unchanged. To prevent a decline in asset quality, banks have tightened credit disbursement requirements.

 

In the meantime, S&P futures have recorded sizeable losses during the Asian session, as investors are wary of firms' comments regarding revenue guidance. The market anticipates that constrained credit conditions will impact the working capital management of cash-reliant companies, thereby affecting their output.

 

The market expects preliminary US S&P PMI data to reveal a Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0, a decrease from the previous reading of 49.9. The Services PMI is anticipated to decrease to 51.5 from 52.6 previously reported.