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March 29, gold extended its record rally on Friday as investors continued to flock to the safe-haven metal amid concerns about an expanding global trade war. "Safe-haven demand continues as concerns about tariffs, trade and geopolitical uncertainty grow, which supports gold," said Peter Grant, senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. As the White House prepares for so-called reciprocal tariffs, the market will also usher in a new wave of trade tariffs on April 2, and the threat of a global trade war has overshadowed the impact of new data released by the United States.According to the latest data from Canalys on March 29, the annual shipments of the US PC market (including desktops and laptops) in 2024 will reach 69.21 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, Lenovo ranked third with a shipment volume of 11.872 million units, and its market share climbed from 16.0% in 2023 to 17.2%, further narrowing the gap with HP (25.3%) and Dell (22.8%). Lenovos annual shipments grew by 12.8% year-on-year, far exceeding HPs 0.6% and Dells -4.1%. In the fourth quarter of last year, HP and Dell both experienced negative growth of -3.6% and -2.4%. Lenovos growth in the same period was close to 12%. In addition, Apples share of the US PC market in 2024 reached 14.8%, an increase of 15% from 2023, ranking fourth in the United States.According to BNO News, the death toll from the Myanmar earthquake has risen to 704.On March 29, according to the Myanmar State Administration Council Information Group, the strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 694 people and injured 1,670 people in Mandalay. The number of casualties may continue to rise.Peter Marks, a senior official in charge of vaccines at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), has resigned, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD to fall to $25.00 as supply concerns subside and risk aversion increases

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:46

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During the early hours of Thursday, the price of silver (XAG / USD) falls to $25.20, a new intraday low. In doing so, the precious metal records its first daily loss in three days, as concerns of a supply crisis subside and a risk-averse mood prevails.

 

Wednesday, Reuters cited the Silver Institute's annual prognosis report, which stated that global silver demand increased by 18% to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces last year, resulting in a massive supply deficit. According to the report, "The Silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, the institute said in its most recent World Silver Survey, calling this 'possibly the largest deficit on record'."

 

On the other hand, higher inflation indicators from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States, along with hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Federal Reserve (Fed), increase the likelihood of rate increases and dampen investor sentiment. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the Fed's most recent policy advocates. In May, he voiced support for an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points and said, "We will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability." Before him, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, highlighted the strength of the credit market as one of the most important catalysts to monitor prior to the next Fed monetary policy meeting.

 

With this, market participants increase their wagers on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May to at least 85 percent and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2023.

 

It should be noted that the UK's allegations of China's hidden motive to clamp down on Western infrastructure and the US House China Committee's discussion on the Taiwan invasion scenario rekindle the West vs. China conflict narrative and impact on sentiment. On the same line are the concerns surrounding the probable drag on the US debt ceiling decision as a result of US President Joe Biden's reluctance to raise debt limits.

 

In addition, Reuters reported that US consumers are falling behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy weakens, which also puts pressure on the XAG/USD exchange rate.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures have recorded their first daily loss in four days, falling 0.25 percent intraday to 4,168 as of press time. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields hover around 3.60 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively, after reaching new monthly highs the day before. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.000 after rectifying its adverse bias from the previous day.

 

Considering the future, the recent emphasis on qualitative news highlights them as the most important risk indicator. Nonetheless, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales should be monitored for fresh impulses.