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On November 16, it was reported that Li Baian, former member of the Party Committee and Vice President of China Merchants Group Limited, is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law and is currently under disciplinary review and supervisory investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission.On November 16th, according to the Finnish newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Rehn stated that the risk of slowing inflation should not be ignored. Low energy prices, a stronger euro, and declining wage and service sector inflation all suggest that overall inflation may be excessively below the ECBs 2% target. When asked if the ECB might cut interest rates again in December, Rehn said, "This risk cannot be underestimated." However, he also cautioned against the potential for rising inflation. Rehn stated that despite the Trump administrations tariff policies disrupting global trade, the Eurozone economy has shown resilience. Rehn also warned that the stock market "clearly faces the risk of a correction," emphasizing the importance of bank capital buffers. Driven by the US artificial intelligence boom, current stock prices appear high relative to the performance of the real economy and corporate profits. This requires caution.On November 16th, it was reported that the United States and Trinidad and Tobago are about to conduct military exercises in waters near the coast of Venezuelas Sucre state. On November 15th, Venezuelan President Maduro strongly condemned the exercises, calling the action "irresponsible" and a "threat" to peace in the Caribbean. Maduro stated that such actions are intended to put pressure on Venezuela, but Venezuela "will not be threatened by anyone." Recently, Trinidad and Tobagos Attorney General John Jeremy stated that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit will be "intensifying exercises" in the country "in the coming days."1. Hungarian Prime Minister: Europe is on the brink of war. 2. Ukraine claims 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners will be released; Russia has not yet responded. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian troops have taken control of the Yablokovo settlement in Zaporizhia. 4. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has ordered a comprehensive reform of state-owned energy companies. 5. According to RIA Novosti: The situation remains stable after an external power line to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant was shut down. 6. Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces: Ukrainian troops have conducted a tactical withdrawal from the town of Novovasilivsk in the Zaporizhia region. 7. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: A Russian oil refinery in Ryazan Oblast was attacked by Ukrainian forces; the refinery produces 840,000 tons of aviation fuel and other military fuels annually. 8. Russian Ministry of Defense: 247 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian military airport and energy facility related to the defense industry were attacked. 9. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian forces struck the Sky-U radar station in Crimea, a military train in the Tokmok region of Zaporizhzhia, and a Russian troop assembly point in Volchansk, Kharkiv region.On November 16, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone conversation on November 15, during which they had in-depth exchanges on the situation in the Middle East, including developments in the Gaza Strip, Irans nuclear program, and the situation in Syria.

Yields are driving the USD/JPY exchange rate toward 134.50, and anxieties about wage growth and an economic slowdown have turned the focus

Alina Haynes

Aug 18, 2022 11:17

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At Thursday's Tokyo open, the USD/JPY accepted bids to renew intraday lows near 134.90, preserving the week's gains. Recent weakness in the yen pair may be related to speculation about the state of Japan-China ties and the job market in the Asian superpower. Bears can find encouragement in the most recent Fed Minutes. Bears in the session are bolstered by worries of a recession, and bulls in the pair are still holding on.

 

Takeo Akiba, Japan's National Security advisor, and Yang Jiechi, China's Foreign Minister, reportedly agreed to continue discussions to establish a positive and stable alliance, as reported by Japan's local media Jiji earlier in the Asian session.

 

Elsewhere, On Thursday, a monthly Reuters poll showed that more major Japanese companies are increasing pay to attract workers and address persistent personnel shortages. That's encouraging because it suggests Japan's corporate sector is beginning to address the issue of decades of stagnant pay.

 

Current US 10-year Treasury yields of 2.89 percent are down from the week's high of roughly 2.90 percent. Both the disappointing FOMC meeting minutes and the risk-positive China Securities news were ignored by the benchmark bond coupons. According to the Federal Reserve Minutes, officials were unanimous in their support of the 75 basis point rate hike in August and expected future rate hikes to be less rapid. In addition, the Minutes revealed that Fed officials were aware of the risk that the Fed could tighten policy too far.

 

In order to spur investment, China may issue an additional 1.5 trillion yuan in debt, according to China Securities news.

 

As a result of these wagers, the S&P 500 Futures decline by 0.25 percent, reflecting Wall Street's poor showing, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan has daily losses of close to 1 percent.

 

Trading pairs should focus on the weekly releases of US Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August in the absence of other relevant data/events.

 

In order to consolidate their gains, USD/JPY bulls need to push the pair over the 50-day moving average near 135.40. The 21-day moving average is a support level around 134.50, therefore a dip towards that level cannot be ruled out until then.