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On March 25th, Pop Mart (09992.HK) held its 2025 annual results press conference. Chief Operating Officer Si De stated that LABUBUs celebrity friends will continue their "global travels," appearing at the World Cup in June and participating in the 100th Macys Thanksgiving Day Parade at the end of the year. Looking at the medium- to long-term plan, LABUBU will also have content formats such as picture books and movies, all currently in the preparation stage. Wang Ning, Chairman and CEO of Pop Mart, stated at the 2025 annual results press conference that the company aims to achieve a growth rate of no less than 20% in 2026.On March 25th, Morgan Stanley issued a report stating that Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) performed strongly in the first quarter of this year, and its earnings per share for the first half of the year are expected to double year-on-year. The stock is attractively valued, currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 13x for 2026, with upside risk to the earnings forecast. Management did not comment on fundraising needs but acknowledged tight cash flow. The bank believes that the recent sharp decline in gold prices has brought uncertainty to market demand, but it is also a good opportunity to test whether its brand strength can support a continued revaluation. Morgan Stanley raised its revenue and net profit forecasts for Lao Pu by 13% to 14% respectively, expecting year-on-year growth of 55% and 66% in 2026, reaching RMB42 billion and RMB8 billion respectively. Morgan Stanley maintained its target price for the group at HKD1010, but due to gold price volatility and demand uncertainty, lowered the target P/E ratio from 23x to 20x, maintaining an "overweight" rating.On March 25, the Peoples Bank of China issued the third tranche of central bank bills for 2026 through the Hong Kong Monetary Authoritys Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) bond bidding platform via interest rate bidding. The issuance amounted to 60 billion yuan, with a maturity of 6 months and a winning bid rate of 1.48%.Shares of Pop Mart (09992.HK) in Hong Kong fell as much as 21% to HK$171.1. The news comes as Pop Marts net profit for 2025 is projected to surge 308.8% year-on-year, but revenue is below expectations.According to Japans Jiji Press, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has requested International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol to release additional oil reserves.

Concerns over the GDP and weak yields cause the USD/JPY to drop to 133.00

Daniel Rogers

Aug 16, 2022 11:50

 截屏2022-08-16 上午9.54.20.png

 

The USD/JPY retests a session low near 133.00 during Tuesday's opening Tokyo session. The yen pair reflects dropping US Treasury yields and recession worries during a dismal session.

 

Despite the recent improvement, worries about the US and Chinese economies have kept the USD/JPY exchange rate weak for the second straight day. The cautious stance in advance of this week's FOMC meeting minutes adds to the pressure on the dollar-yen exchange rate.

 

Retail Sales in China dipped to 2.7% YoY in July from 3.1% in June and 5.0% expected, while Industrial Production (IP) fell to 3.8% in July from 3.8% in June and 4.0% predicted by the market. Additionally, in an effort to counter bearishness, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) shocked the markets on Monday by reducing the rates on its medium-term lending facility (MLF) by 10 basis points (bps).

 

In contrast, despite market predictions of 8.5, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for August dropped from 11.1 in July to 31.3. The August NAHB homebuilder confidence index in the US fell from 55 to 49, the lowest level since the start of 2020.

 

Recession worries have returned after a brief hiatus during the last week due mostly to worse US inflation data and the dismal figures from the two largest economies in the world.

 

On a different page, reports claiming that the coronavirus situation has improved in Shanghai, China's financial center, and that trading in Russian bonds has resumed on Wall Street failed to whet investors' appetite for risk. The Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) rumors of a potential meeting between US Vice President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping may also encourage investors to take more risks. In a similar vein, Chinese President Xi proposed new efforts to revive the second-largest economy in the world.

 

The Pentagon said on Monday that the US, South Korea, and Japan participated in a missile warning and ballistic missile search and tracking exercise last week off the coast of Hawaii. Between August 22 and September 1, the US and South Korea will collaborate on military drills. The geopolitical worries influence the USD/JPY exchange rate and the market's mood.

 

In this situation, the three-day downtrend in the US 10-year Treasury yields is about 2.775%, and the intraday decline in the S&P 500 Futures is at least 0.13 percent. Moving forward, housing data from the United States, secondary activity, and risk catalysts can amuse intraday traders.

 

The 10-DMA safeguards short-term USD/JPY gains near 133.80 within a three-week-old symmetrical triangle between 132.35 and 134.20.


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