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The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Non-weather factors may push up food prices.

We Are Raising Rates, Recession or Not, Gold Daily Analysis

Daniel Rogers

Jun 30, 2022 15:57

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Today, while speaking at the annual meeting of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, Chairman Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve is dedicated to decreasing inflation, even if it necessitates hiking interest rates to levels that threaten economic development. His remarks reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve will "do whatever it takes" to return inflation to the 2 percent objective with sustained rate rises.

 

The chairman admitted that "there is a danger" that the Federal Reserve's new monetary policy may lead to an economic contraction and recession, but he stated, "I would not agree that this is the greater risk. The worse error would consist in failing to restore price stability."

 

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Since current predictions indicate that tomorrow's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) data will reflect that inflation continues to exceed the Fed's 2 percent inflation target for May by more than thrice. If these projections are accurate, the chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at the July 26-27 FOMC meeting will grow. Recently, the Federal Reserve amended its "dot plot" to represent about twice the previous inflation target for the end of the year of 1 12 to 1 34 percent to a minimum of 3.4 percent.

 

Although the chairman downplayed worries of a recession by stating that the economy is in "very good form" and would be able to withstand tighter lending conditions while avoiding a recession or even a big rise in the unemployment rate, he added a crucial caveat. The longer high inflation persists, the route to a "soft landing" would become "considerably more difficult," according to him.

 

According to recent statistics, inflationary pressures will stay quite high. Additionally, the BEA announced today that "Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 1.6% annually in the first quarter of 2022, following a 6.9% gain in the fourth quarter of 2021. The drop was revised downward by 0.1 percentage point from the May "second estimate."

Why Is The Dollar Appreciating?

The combination of Chairman Powell's words and expectations implies that inflation, as measured by tomorrow's PCE price index data, has resulted in a very strong dollar in anticipation of rate hikes. The dollar's rise resulted from market players focusing on interest rate hikes rather than present inflationary pressures.