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On January 7th, according to foreign media reports, Argus released the latest Japanese refinery data: 1. As of the week ending January 3rd, the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 89.2%, basically unchanged from the previous week. Crude oil processing volume remained at 2.8 million barrels per day, and operating capacity remained at 3.1 million barrels per day. 2. Japanese refiner Eneos stated that it will suspend planned maintenance on its 128,000 barrels per day crude oil distillation unit (CDU) at the Marifu refinery starting in mid-January. The unit will resume operation in early April. 3. Regarding prices, with gasoline subsidies ending at the end of 2025, as of January 5th, the average retail gasoline price in Japan was 155.70 yen per liter, lower than 158 yen per liter on December 22nd, marking the lowest level since June 2021. 4. Inventory data shows that as of the week ending January 3, crude oil inventories increased by 6.0% week-on-week to 65.12 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 10.67 million barrels; kerosene inventories increased by 8.4% week-on-week to 14.01 million barrels; and diesel inventories surged by 22.4% week-on-week to 10.35 million barrels.On January 7th, Guo Ningning, Deputy Secretary of the Fujian Provincial Party Committee and Secretary of the Fuzhou Municipal Party Committee, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Fuzhou will formulate and implement an overall development plan for its development zones, creating a number of distinctive benchmark parks. The city will solidly promote the integrated development of port, shipping, and trade along the "Silk Road Maritime Transport," accelerate the construction of channels such as the "Silk Road Flight" and the "Digital Silk Road," and build a comprehensive transportation network integrating sea, land, air, and land. It will also develop high-level platforms such as the China-Indonesia "Two Countries, Two Parks" initiative, the 21st Century Maritime Cooperation Committee, and comprehensive bonded zones, strengthening international cooperation in industrial and supply chains. Adhering to the principle of cross-strait integration with Fuzhou taking the lead, the city will continuously optimize institutional arrangements for integrated development, promoting economic, social, emotional, and overall integration between Fuzhou and Taiwan. It will accelerate the construction of a pilot zone for a cross-strait common market and a cross-strait common industrial cluster, creating a happy home for Taiwanese compatriots, businesses, and youth.On July 7 local time, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes against Yemen, resulting in 4 deaths.1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 879,846 lots, an increase of 6,072 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,966,625 lots, an increase of 5,296 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 163,578 lots, an increase of 13,367 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 216,246 lots, a decrease of 739 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 499,109 lots, a decrease of 329,793 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,592,991 lots, an increase of 15,786 lots from the previous trading day.On January 7th, it was announced that the Shenyang Housing Provident Fund Management Committee has approved five optimizations to housing provident fund loan policies, effective January 2026. These optimizations include: extending the minimum down payment ratio policy period, extending the 15% minimum down payment ratio for housing provident fund loans implemented in November 2024 to December 31, 2026; extending the policy period for determining the number of housing units in housing provident fund loans, extending the policy period for those who have used two or more housing provident fund loans and can obtain a new loan after repayment, implemented in July 2025, to December 31, 2026; and relaxing restrictions on "commercial-to-provident fund" loan conversions for flexible employment and other groups. For those applying for "commercial-to-public" loans, the repayment period of the original commercial loan will no longer be restricted, except for flexible employment contributors, employees contributing in other locations, and active military personnel. The loan ratio limit for "commercial-to-public" loans will be increased from 60% to 80% of the house price. The housing loan support policy for new urban residents and young people will be relaxed, and the scope of application of the housing provident fund loan limit for new urban residents and young people will be increased to 1.3 times the original limit, expanding from newly built commercial housing to both newly built commercial housing and second-hand owner-occupied housing.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Pull Back

Daniel Rogers

Jul 01, 2022 11:07

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has declined dramatically during the trading session on Thursday to break down below the $107 level. At this point, it appears like the market is going to test the big trend line from previously, and so I think it’s probably only a matter of time until we see substantial movement one way or the other. If we do break down below the uptrend line, the next target will be the $100 mark. Breaking below that level then opens up the chance of entirely shifting the trend. It is worth mentioning that the rest of the commodities markets have suffered a blow to the face, therefore oil is the “last man standing.” 

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets definitely appear quite similar, since they are challenging the uptrend line beneath which is closer to the $107 level. If we break down below there, then the Brent market is expected to travel to be $100 level where it will start to tangle with the 200 Day EMA. Breaking down below that of course would be pretty bad as well, setting off what would officially be termed a “downtrend.”

 

On the other side, if any one of these markets rebounds off the uptrend line, then it appears like they are going to try to save themselves. That being said, the previous couple of days have seen a genuine shift in momentum, and it does imply that more problems is on the way. Consequently, I am not too enthusiastic about holding crude oil at the moment. The markets are simply way too risky.