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Futures data from September 17th: Spot gold prices surged above the 3,700 mark overnight, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.23% to $3,727.50 per ounce, and SHFE gold futures closing up 0.19%. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty are all contributing to golds performance. Focus is on the Federal Reserves September meeting and the subsequent Quarterly Economic Projections (SEP). The US dollar continued to weaken on Tuesday, with the US dollar index falling 0.74% to a low of 96.54, hitting a near two-month low. Furthermore, the dollar fell 0.9% against the euro, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. Regarding economic data, US retail sales for August, released on Tuesday, rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% increase. The previous reading was revised from 0.5% to 0.6%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending. The Federal Reserve held its meeting early Thursday morning, and a rate cut is all but certain. With the US Presidents newly nominated Fed Governor, Milan, participating in the FOMC meeting, the published dot plot is expected to show a more dovish tone, with the number of rate cuts for 2025 expected to fluctuate between two and three. Furthermore, continued pressure from the White House on Powell and other governors is crucial. Concerns about the Feds independence may continue to exacerbate market volatility.According to the Wall Street Journal: Eli Lilly (LLY.N) will invest $5 billion to build a factory in Virginia, USA.Japanese Ministry of Finance: Japans exports to the United States fell 13.8% year-on-year in August; exports to the European Union increased 5.5% year-on-year in August.Japans seasonally adjusted merchandise trade account in August was -150.125 billion yen, compared with expectations of -341.3 billion yen and the previous value of -303 billion yen.Japans annualized rate of merchandise imports in August was -5.2%, in line with expectations of -4.2%. The previous value was revised from -7.50% to -7.40%.

Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Pull Back

Daniel Rogers

Jul 01, 2022 11:07

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has declined dramatically during the trading session on Thursday to break down below the $107 level. At this point, it appears like the market is going to test the big trend line from previously, and so I think it’s probably only a matter of time until we see substantial movement one way or the other. If we do break down below the uptrend line, the next target will be the $100 mark. Breaking below that level then opens up the chance of entirely shifting the trend. It is worth mentioning that the rest of the commodities markets have suffered a blow to the face, therefore oil is the “last man standing.” 

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent markets definitely appear quite similar, since they are challenging the uptrend line beneath which is closer to the $107 level. If we break down below there, then the Brent market is expected to travel to be $100 level where it will start to tangle with the 200 Day EMA. Breaking down below that of course would be pretty bad as well, setting off what would officially be termed a “downtrend.”

 

On the other side, if any one of these markets rebounds off the uptrend line, then it appears like they are going to try to save themselves. That being said, the previous couple of days have seen a genuine shift in momentum, and it does imply that more problems is on the way. Consequently, I am not too enthusiastic about holding crude oil at the moment. The markets are simply way too risky.


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