• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 2, DBS published a research report indicating that the recent share price of GCL Technology (03800.HK) is expected to largely follow the cyclical changes in polysilicon prices. In addition, the government may introduce policies to control production or even eliminate backward production capacity, which will become a catalyst for the share price. It is currently expected that GCL Technologys production will drop by 30% this year, and the average selling price of products is expected to increase by more than 10%, offsetting the impact of the decline in production. DBS maintains a buy rating on GCL Technology. Considering that the profit recovery is slower than expected, it lowered its profit forecast for this year from RMB 1 billion to RMB 61 million. It believes that the average selling price will rise and costs will fall, and the profit will rebound to RMB 1.7 billion next year. The target price is lowered from HK$1.35 to HK$1.3.On April 2, market research firm Omdia reported that the annual revenue of the semiconductor market surged by about 25% to $683 billion in 2024. This sharp growth was attributed to strong demand for AI-related chips, especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI GPUs, which led to an annual growth rate of 74% in the memory field. After a challenging 2023, the rebound in memory helped boost the overall market. However, this record year masked an uneven performance across the industry. The data processing sector grew strongly, while other key sectors such as automotive, consumer and industrial semiconductors saw revenue declines in 2024. These struggles highlight the weak links in the originally booming market.On April 2, DBS published a research report indicating that the restructuring of Agile (03383.HK) is ongoing, and as a valuable overseas asset in which it holds 45% of the shares, A-Life (03319.HK) may be included in the overseas restructuring plan, and part of the outstanding overseas debts may be offset through credit enhancement or debt-to-equity swaps. Therefore, the restructuring of Agile will put pressure on the share price of A-Life in the near future. In addition, there is still uncertainty as to whether the uncollected receivables from third parties and related parties can be recovered. Considering the limited profit prospects, based on the downward revision of revenue and profit margin forecasts, DBS further lowered the profit forecast of A-Life for this year and next year by 21% to 25%, maintaining the hold rating, and the target price was raised from HK$2.6 to HK$3.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the yen to climb to the bottom of the 140 range against the dollar this year as unease about U.S. economic growth and trade tariffs boost demand for the safest assets. Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs, said the yen would provide investors with the best currency hedging tool if the likelihood of a U.S. recession increases. Reaching the 140 level would mean a 7% increase from current levels, and the banks forecast is more optimistic than the median of 145 in the agencys survey of analysts. "The yen tends to perform best when U.S. real interest rates and U.S. stocks fall at the same time," Trivedi said.Hong Kong-listed auto stocks fluctuated upward, with Leapmotor (09863.HK) rising more than 9%, Geely Auto (00175.HK) rising nearly 5%, NIO (09866.HK) and Li Auto (02015.HK) both rising more than 1%.

Watching the foreign exchange market on October 15: technical analysis of the euro, the pound sterling and the Australian dollar

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 10:52

Currency: EUR/USD



Resistance 2: 1.1680

Resistance 1: 1.1620

Spot price: 1.1591

Support 1: 1.1525

Support 2: 1.144

On Thursday, the euro retreated from Wednesday’s high. On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced inflation data. The consumer price index rose by 5.4% in September, higher than the 5.3% expected by analysts, indicating that US residents are struggling to cope with price increases. In addition, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 4%, the same as the previous value. Following the release of the US inflation data, the US dollar initially strengthened, but it seems that the market has already digested the rise in prices, and then the US dollar fell, boosting the euro. On technical graphics, the daily EUR/USD is trading far below the daily moving average and is still in a downward trend, but the technical indicators are seriously oversold. On Wednesday, the euro/dollar constructed a bearish engulfing K line, indicating that the exchange rate may remain upward, but it needs to break through the strong resistance of the psychological barrier of 1.1600. In addition, the October 4th high of 1.1639 became a strong resistance for the bulls. If the EUR/USD daily line closes above 1.1600, the first test level will be the above 1.1639. If the exchange rate breaks through this level, it may test the 50-day moving average at 1.1719. On the downside, with the support of relative strength indicators and other momentum indicators, the exchange rate still maintains a downward trend. The relative strength indicator is below the midline 50. If the exchange rate falls below 1.1600, it will test the 2021 low of 1.1524.

Currency: GBP/USD



Resistance level 2: 1.3800

Resistance 1: 1.3722

Spot price: 1.3676

Support 1: 1.3570

Support 2: 1.3530

After the pound against the US dollar hit a two-week high of 1.3735 in early European trading on Thursday, profit-taking fell back to around 1.3670 in late trading. Recently, news of the British pound, which seems to be favorable, has appeared frequently. The easing of the confrontation between the UK and the European Union on the Northern Ireland Agreement has eased people’s concerns, and the pound has also gained some support for this. The European Union said on Wednesday that it will reduce customs inspections and paperwork for British products used in Northern Ireland. Earlier, the Bank of England officials signaled that interest rates are about to be raised, which greatly promoted the recent sharp rebound in the pound. On the 4-hour and daily chart, the GBP/USD exchange rate has broken the 20 moving average, and various technical indicators have developed upward, indicating that the rebound potential from 1.3412 at the end of September has not yet exhausted. If the exchange rate stays above 1.36, the targets that are expected to attack from the top will aim at water levels such as 1.37 and 1.38 respectively. The key support below is at 1.3570. If it falls below, it will indicate the end of this round of pound rebound.

Currency: AUD/USD



Resistance level 2: 0.7478

Resistance 1: 0.7425

Spot price: 0.7416

Support 1: 0.7330

Support 2: 0.7280

AUD/USD traded near 0.7410 after hitting a one-month high of 0.7426. The Australian economic data fell short of market expectations, but the stock market rose and gold prices strengthened to boost the Australian dollar. The Australian data released on Thursday morning was generally weak. Consumer inflation expectations in October were 3.6%, which was lower than the previous value of 4.4% and also lower than the expected value of 3.8%. In addition, Australia issued a report saying that it lost 138,000 jobs in September, which was weaker than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, better than expected, but the employment participation rate shrank to 64.5%. Australia's weak economic data shows that the basic factors supporting the rise of the Australian dollar are not so solid. Looking at the short-term technical outlook of the AUD/USD, the daily chart shows that the AUD/USD remains bullish, the exchange rate continues to break through the 20 moving average, and the technical indicators are facing upwards and are in a positive zone. AUD/USD is currently converging at the continuously bearish 100 moving average. If the AUD/USD breaks through this level, the exchange rate is expected to hit the 100% retracement level and rise to the September high of 0.7477. However, on the short-term hourly chart, the technical indicators have all entered an overbought state, and care must be taken to prevent the risk of weekend profit pullbacks in the day.

Only personal views, not representative of the views of the organization

Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "Foreign Exchange Market Watch October 15, 2021"