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① Iran 1. Iranian lawmaker: Iran has never initiated a war, nor has it ever left the negotiating table. 2. Iranian military spokesperson: If attacked again, it will "open a new front." 3. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Iran is prepared to respond to any military aggression. The US is whitewashing "threats" as "peace opportunities." 4. Explosions were heard on Qeshm Island, Iran. Iranian officials: The explosions were caused by the disposal of unexploded ordnance. 5. Iranian Ministry of Justice: Assets of 52 individuals linked to hostile networks have been seized, and the proceeds will be used for the people. ② United States 1. The US Treasury Department issued a new round of sanctions against Iran. 2. US officials: Many of Irans ballistic missiles are deployed in underground caves and other facilities carved into granite mountains, making them difficult for US attack aircraft to destroy. 3. US officials: The White House National Security Council meeting on Tuesday was postponed after Trump delayed the strike on Iran. 4. Trump: We may have to strike Iran again, its not certain yet. I agree to give Iran another 2-3 days, maybe until Friday or Saturday, maybe early next week, time is limited. ③ Israel 1. Israel Defense Forces: In the past 24 hours, more than 25 Hezbollah infrastructure targets were struck in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. 2. Israeli senior officials assess that the US still favors resuming military action against Iran. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Qatari Foreign Ministry: Any change to the status quo on the issue of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is unacceptable. 2. G7 Finance Ministers Statement: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is imperative. Continued commitment to maintaining energy market stability. 3. US Central Command: Has forced 89 merchant ships to change course. 4. NATO sets a deadline: If the Strait of Hormuz is not open by early July, it plans to deploy troops to escort ships. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister releases Irans draft proposal for an agreement with the US, including the withdrawal of US troops from surrounding areas. 2. Mediators believe that the US-Iran negotiations have made almost no progress, and Iran insists on its core demands. 3. US Vice President Vance: The US-Iran negotiations have made great progress, but the US has also prepared a "Plan B". ⑥ Other Circumstances: 1. The Trump administration plans to reduce NATOs crisis response force, demanding that Europe take over security leadership. 2. British Airways suspends flights to Israel until August 1st. 3. Hamas: We reject the Peace Commission report, which contains erroneous statements exonerating the occupying government. 4. Lebanese official sources indicate that a draft of a US-mediated declaration of intent with Israel is under review, but has not yet been finalized. 5. UAE Ministry of Defense: Six drones launched from Iraq were detected and dealt with in the past 48 hours. All targets were successfully intercepted, with no casualties and no impact on the security of critical facilities. International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Grossi: (Regarding the Barakah nuclear power plant in the UAE) Radiation levels are normal and external power has been restored, but the situation is seriously worrying.Chevron (CVX.N) and Saudi Aramcos Motiva have restricted the delivery of key engine oil feedstocks.Iran has stated that the US claim that the Iranian school it hit was located within a cruise missile base is baseless.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in western Uzbekistan.

Watching the foreign exchange market on October 19: technical analysis of the euro, the pound and the Australian dollar

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 10:52

Currency: EUR/USD



Resistance 2: 1.1680
Resistance 1: 1.1640
Spot price: 1.1619
Support 1: 1.1595
Support 2: 1.1525

The US dollar was weak during the US session, and the euro/US dollar traded near the intraday high of 1.1610. US economic data was weaker than expected, and US stocks performed better after falling European and Asian stock markets, boosting the euro/dollar. At present, the focus of the market is still on the yield of U.S. Treasuries, which is the most concerned indicator of inflation pressure in the market. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once hit a high of 1.627%, but then quickly fell below 1.60%, further increasing the weakness of the dollar at the close. On the daily chart, the bullish momentum for the euro/dollar is still limited. The stable and bearish 20 SMA constitutes resistance, while the large-level moving average maintains a bearish tendency and is above the short-term moving average. The kinetic energy of technical indicators is not balanced. They are regaining lost ground, but remain in the negative zone, indicating that the exchange rate will consolidate rather than bottom out. The 4-hour chart shows that the EUR/USD is above the 20SMA and 100SMA, and the short-term moving average is about to cross the long-term moving average. The kinetic energy indicator was flat near the midline, and the relative strength indicator fell from the intraday high and is still above the midline. If the euro/dollar breaks through 1.1640, the exchange rate may continue to rise, if the euro/dollar breaks below 1.1595, the short position may increase.

Currency: GBP/USD



Resistance 2: 1.3820
Resistance 1: 1.3750
Spot price: 1.3744
Support 1: 1.3690
Support 2: 1.3640

Data show that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in September was the same as the previous value, an increase of 0.7%, unexpectedly better than expected -0.2%, and the previous value was revised up from 0.7% to 0.9%. The monthly rate of core retail sales increased by 0.8%, which was also better than expected 0.5%. The beautiful data and the impressive performance of Bank of America's earnings report that week boosted market risk appetite. Among the risky currencies, the pound is clearly the leader, because the UK's interest rate hike expectations are constantly rising. However, it is still under the pressure of the downward trend line since the high point of the year. The daily chart regained the ground lost earlier with the big Yang line, and the recent rebound has been strong. However, the current test of the downward trend line since the July 30 high is still cautious about further upwards. The 4-hour chart broke through the previous day's callback high, but the stochastic indicator diverged bearishly. The hourly chart oscillates ascending short-term and there is a callback signal above 1.3770. Only above 1.3820 is above the breakthrough, which shows a clear upward trend.

Currency: AUD/USD



Resistance level 2: 0.7478
Resistance 1: 0.7440
Spot price: 0.7424
Support 1: 0.7385
Support 2: 0.7330

The weekly chart shows that the AUD/USD seems to be preparing to continue the upward trend. The AUD/USD has expanded its rebound from the flat 100 SMA, and was above the bearish 20 SMA last week. At the same time, the technical indicators remain upward, about to cross the midline and enter the positive zone.

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD may be close to finishing down. AUD/USD is currently trading directly above the mildly bearish 100 SMA, while the technical indicators are near the overbought indicators, losing bullish momentum. AUD/USD faced strong resistance at the monthly high of 0.7477 in September. If AUD/USD breaks through the resistance, it will approach the 0.7600 area. In addition, if the AUD/USD drops below 0.7330 and falls to the 0.7200 area, the AUD/USD will turn bearish.

Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch

Source: Bank of China official website

Original Title: Forex Market Watching on October 19, 2021

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