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September 11th - According to foreign media reports, U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate in August as gasoline prices rebound after two consecutive months of decline, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Labor Department will release its August CPI report on Friday. This follows strong performance in several key components of Thursdays PPI report. Economists say that with oil prices returning above $100 per barrel, inflation is bound to remain high and expand further. Other economists believe that price pressures will persist due to import tariffs, especially the recent tariffs imposed on Canada, a major U.S. trading partner.US August Unadjusted CPI YoY (Previous: +3.4%, Median Expectation: +3.4%) 1. Citigroup: +3.3%; Capital Economics: +3.3%; UniCredit: 3.3%; Jefferies: +3.3%; Berenberg Bank: +3.3%; Deutsche Bank: +3.3%; 2. DBS Bank: +3.3%; Nomura Securities: +3.3%; Societe Generale: +3.3%; Lloyds Banking Group: +3.3%; Sparta Capital Securities: +3.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +3.4%; 3. Barclays: +3.4%; Wells Fargo: +3.4%; ABN AMRO: +3.4%; ANZ: +3.4%; Danske Bank: +3.4%; Royal Bank of Canada: +3.4%; 4. Bank of America: +3.4%; BNP Paribas: +3.4%; Allied Bank: +3.4%; Monex Group: +3.4%; DekaBank: +3.4%; Morgan Stanley: +3.4%; 5. Goldman Sachs: +3.4%; TD Securities: +3.4%; HSBC: +3.4%; Nikko Securities: +3.4%; UBS: +3.4%; CIBC: +3.4%; 6. JPMorgan Chase: +3.4%; Standard Chartered: 3.4%; Scotiabank: +3.4%; Sberbank Berlin: +3.4%; BMO: +3.4%; ING: +3.5%. US August Unadjusted Core CPI YoY (Previous: +2.5%, Median Expectation: +2.4%) 1. Citigroup: +2.3%; Jefferies: +2.3%; TD Securities: +2.3%; U.S. Bancorp: +2.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +2.4%; Deutsche Bank: +2.4%; 2. Barclays: +2.4%; ABN AMRO: +2.4%; Amtrak Financial: +2.4%; Monex Group: +2.4%; Danske Bank: +2.4%; Nordea: +2.4%; 3. ANZ: +2.4%; BNP Paribas: +2.4%; Bank of America: +2.4%; Lloyds Banking Group: +2.4%; SZSE: +2.4%; CIBC: +2.4%; 4. JPMorgan Chase: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Allied Bank: +2.4%; Goldman Sachs: +2.4%; DekaBank: +2.4%; Bank of Montreal: +2.4%; 5. Wells Fargo: +2.4%; HSBC: +2.4%; ING: +2.4%; Nomura Securities: +2.4%; Nikko Securities: +2.4%; Morgan Stanley: +2.4%; 6. Societe Generale: +2.4%; Standard Chartered: +2.4%; UBS: +2.4%; UniCredit: +2.4%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Sparta Capital Securities: +2.5%.On September 11th, Benedict Cuquela, Chief Investment Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, stated in a report that the European Central Banks (ECB) focus solely on energy supply shocks was surprising. The ECB failed to consider the still fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation. It also did not adequately account for the impact of tightening bond market interest rates. While the ECB is not lacking in credibility on inflation, there is a risk of over-tightening the nascent economic recovery.September 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated at a press conference that day that "no option is ruled out" in discussions and research related to revising the "Three Security Documents" regarding whether Japan should possess nuclear-powered submarines. This is not the first time Koizumi has made similar remarks. Last October, when asked about the issue, Koizumi also stated that "no option is ruled out" for the propulsion system of Japans next-generation submarines, hinting at the possibility of introducing nuclear submarines.On September 11, according to a report by Axios citing two US officials, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman called US President Trump twice on September 10, urging him to launch an attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The report stated that Trump rejected the request. US officials said the US government currently has "no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis." According to Axios, the US is increasingly concerned about the rapidly escalating conflict in Yemen and is increasing its support for Saudi Arabia while striving to avoid direct military intervention. The report also stated that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper arrived in Saudi Arabia on September 10 for emergency coordination consultations. Axios added that in recent weeks, US military and civilian officials have made it clear to Saudi Arabia that Trumps directive is to "focus US forces on dealing with Iran and defending the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding opening new military fronts."

WTI remains protective over $75.00 due to conflicting OPEC oil demand predictions and an increase in API inventories

Alina Haynes

Dec 14, 2022 11:28

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During Wednesday's Asian session, WTI crude oil traders struggle to find a clear direction around $75.30. The market is cautious ahead of today's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and as a result, the black gold deviates from a three-day rally from the yearly low (FOMC).

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) ambiguous oil demand projections and news about China may be supporting the WTI's passivity.

 

The OPEC stated in a monthly report that after increasing by 2.55 million bpd in 2022, oil consumption will increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd), or approximately 2.3%, in 2023. Both projections remained the same as the previous month, according to Reuters. The news also stated that "OPEC reduced the absolute demand projections in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 while maintaining the yearly demand growth forecasts at the same level. Chinese consumption has decreased in 2022 due to COVID containment measures, according to OPEC, as reported by Reuters.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva was seen predicting weaker economic growth for China as a result of the most recent increase in the daily Covid cases on a different page. Additionally, Bloomberg reported that the COVID-19 issues may have caused the Chinese leaders to postpone their meeting to discuss economic policy.

 

The disappointing US inflation figures could have encouraged oil bulls, but a surprising increase in the American Petroleum Institute's (API) weekly inventory for the week ended December 9—to 7.819M from -6.289M the week before—challenges the buyers of black gold.

 

The main difficulty for WTI traders is uncertainty surrounding market fears of fewer rate hikes and a cautious attitude prior to the Fed's decision.

 

Moving on, the risk associated with China and pre-Fed actions may limit WTI movements. Weekly official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), before -5.187M, may also be a factor in limiting oil swings.