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On May 31, the Colombian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on May 30, local time, stating that in response to the Ecuadorian governments earlier announcement that it would stop imposing a "safety tax" on Colombian goods, Colombia would lift its trade retaliatory measures against Ecuador and promote the normalization of bilateral economic and trade relations.May 31 - A Bloomberg survey of economists median forecast indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3% in May, while nonfarm payrolls will increase by 89,000. This increase would push the three-month average job growth rate to its highest level in over a year, sparking discussions about a continued acceleration in hiring. Forecasters expect the healthcare sector to maintain its strong momentum, while cyclical sectors such as construction, leisure, and hospitality will also see a recovery, with demand in these sectors likely benefiting from the warm weather of the past month. Manufacturing employment may also be boosted as consumers stockpile goods in anticipation of potential price increases following a potential conflict with Iran.On May 31, according to Iranian state television, Saeed Ajorlou, a member of Irans Media Committee, stated on Saturday that Tehran had not yet approved the final draft of the proposed agreement with the United States, and warned that Iran might withdraw from the agreement if the US failed to fulfill its commitments. In an interview, Ajorlou said that to his knowledge, as of Friday evening, the final text had not been approved, but the differences between the two sides were minimal. He stated, "If the final text is approved, we will enter a 60-day phase of detailed consultations," adding that each of the 14 articles of the agreement contains annexes that require further negotiation. Ajorlou emphasized that the implementation mechanism is more important than the text itself, especially regarding the acquisition of Iranian assets and the fulfillment of commitments by the other side. He stated that the proposed agreement includes a clause allowing Iran to withdraw from the agreement if the other side fails to fulfill its commitments. He indicated that Iran could withdraw from the agreement if violations occur, including breaches of the ceasefire agreement, failure to grant access to Iranian funds, or failure to lift the naval blockade. He added that if commitments are not fulfilled in the initial phase, Iran will reconsider its participation in the proposed 60-day negotiations.The Indian government stated that the current consumption tax rates for gasoline and diesel consumed domestically will remain unchanged.On May 31, local time, Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on May 30 that the naval blockade against Iran “will eventually end, whether through negotiations or military action.”

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD fluctuates around $1,810 as attention turns to Fed policy

Daniel Rogers

Dec 14, 2022 11:26

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In the Tokyo session, the spot price of gold (XAU/USD) is fluctuating around the $1,810.00 immediate support. The price of the precious metal dropped after hitting a new five-month high on Tuesday at $1,824.51. After the publication of a moderate inflation report for the month of November, the price of gold was given new life.

 

As prospects of a lesser rate hike by the Fed have grown due to a decrease in inflationary pressures, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is battling to maintain above the 104.00 level. Following the weak October inflation report, Fed policymakers were already calling for a slowdown in the rate of interest rate increases. Recent major slowdowns in inflation have increased the likelihood of changing the monetary policy to one that is less hawkish.

 

After a decrease in pricing pressures, the risk-appetite theme boosted the S&P 500. Futures for the 500-US stock basket are anticipated to increase in speed as recession concerns have diminished more. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yields are now close to 3.50 percent.

 

"The 50 basis points raise, which is commonly predicted for tomorrow's FOMC meeting, can be considered almost certain given today's data," states a Commerzbank note. We continue to believe that the Fed will cut back on the extent of the rate increases once more at the start of 2023, increasing rates by only 25 basis points in February and March.