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On April 12, US President Trump issued a new threat to Iran, saying, "At the appropriate time, we will be fully ready and our military will end the remaining forces in Iran."April 12 - Explosions and gunfire were heard in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, on April 12 local time.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake occurred at 21:27 on April 12 in Zizhong County, Neijiang City, Sichuan Province (29.67 degrees north latitude, 104.88 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.1. Monday: ① Data: US March existing home sales (annualized); China March M2 money supply (annualized). ② Events: OPEC releases monthly oil market report; International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank hold spring meetings until April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda visits the US from April 13 to 18 to attend G20 and IMF meetings. ③ Earnings: Goldman Sachs. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US March NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; US March PPI (year-on-year); US March PPI (month-on-month); China March trade balance (in USD); China March trade balance. ② Events: Federal Reserve Board hosts "Strengthening the US Economy through Rural Investment: Working Forum"; IEA releases monthly oil market report; IMF releases World Economic Outlook report. ③ Holiday: National Stock Exchange of India closed. ④ Earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending April 10; final French March CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone February industrial production month-on-month rate; Canadian February wholesale sales month-on-month rate; US April New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US March Import Price Index month-on-month rate, US April NAHB Housing Market Index. ② Events: The National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Bank of England Governor Bailey participates in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsby participates in a panel discussion before the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference; Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum hosted by the Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Fed Board of Governors working forum; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech. ③ Earnings Reports: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, ASML. 4. Thursday: ① Data: Australias seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March; Chinas first-quarter GDP year-on-year, Chinas March retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, Chinas March industrial value-added year-on-year; UKs three-month GDP month-on-month in February, UKs February manufacturing output month-on-month, UKs seasonally adjusted goods trade balance in February, UKs February industrial production month-on-month; Eurozones final March CPI year-on-year rate, Eurozones final March CPI month-on-month rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production month-on-month, US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending April 10. ② Events: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance Forum; the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of an IMF meeting; the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the operation of the national economy; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is held. ③ Earnings Report: TSMC. 5. Friday: ① Data: Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. 6. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending April 17. ② Event: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.On April 12, local time, US President Trump posted on social media that the US-Iran talks had reached an agreement on "most issues," but failed to reach an agreement on the key issue of "nuclear weapons." Trump said the US had been briefed on the talks, which lasted approximately 20 hours, but Iran "was unwilling to give up its nuclear ambitions." Trump stated that the US would continue to push for negotiations, but was "fully prepared." He reiterated that Iran "will never possess nuclear weapons."

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD falls below $1,800 as yields increase. Focus on central banks and Fed-inflicted wounds

Daniel Rogers

Dec 15, 2022 11:29

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Gold price (XAU/USD) stays in the red near $1,800 as the US Dollar recovers from a six-month low despite traders' reevaluation of Federal Reserve (Fed) remarks on Thursday morning. Also likely to have benefitted XAU/USD sellers is the cautious sentiment preceding key central bank announcements.

 

As anticipated, the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points and changed the dot plot to indicate a terminal rate of 5.1%, up from 4.6% in September's Statement of Economic Projections (SEP). The US central bank also updated inflation projections upward, while growth projections for 2023 and 2024 were reduced. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell defended his image as a hawk while saying that the ultimate level of interest rates is more significant than their rate of change. The official noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) must maintain peak interest rates until policymakers are "very certain" that inflation would decline in a sustainable manner.

 

Following Fed statements, US markets closed on a downbeat note, while US Treasury bond yields also declined. In spite of this, 10-year US Treasury note rates are testing a two-day downtrend near 3.50 percent, while the two-year counterpart extends its recovery from the monthly low and posts its first daily gain near 4.25 percent in three days.

 

As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers at 103.75, while rebounding off a one-month-old support level and a six-month low.

 

Gold traders should pay close attention to the numerous central bank announcements, beginning with the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BOE), for clear direction. Amidst hawkish expectations and inverse relationships with the U.S. dollar, the ECB will garner the most attention among them. Consequently, the optimistic results of central bankers may weigh on the Gold price going forward.

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