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Futures Market News, September 11th: SC crude oil rose 9.04%, currently trading at 837.9 yuan/barrel. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 7.62%, currently trading at 5649 yuan/ton. Fuel oil rose 7.71%, currently trading at 4417 yuan/ton. Asphalt rose 4.86%, currently trading at 5547 yuan/ton.On September 11th, TD Securities analysts stated that Japans economic growth is exceeding its potential, necessitating faster interest rate hikes to prevent overheating. TD Securities noted that as the economy enters a turning point, the Bank of Japan cannot risk falling behind and predicts it will abandon its gradual tightening strategy. Price pressures are also accelerating, and the labor market is expected to tighten further. Against this backdrop, TD Securities anticipates approximately quarterly rate hikes, unlike the Bank of Japans usual semi-annual pace. The firm forecasts 25 basis point hikes next week and in December, followed by similar hikes at the April, July, and October meetings in 2027, raising the target rate to 2.25%. TD Securities indicated that a key consideration for the Bank of Japans path will be fiscal policy; an expansionary fiscal policy could prompt earlier rate hikes or extend the tightening cycle to 2028.Barclays: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in December 2026.September 11th - The "Global Mining Development Report 2026" shows that Chinas new round of strategic action for mineral exploration breakthroughs has yielded significant results, with substantial increases in mineral resource reserves. China ranks first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, achieving multi-dimensional expansion in oil and gas exploration, with deep-sea and deep-ground areas becoming new growth poles. Simultaneously, Chinas scale of mineral production and smelting processing remains the worlds largest, and its dominant position in the industrial chain continues to be consolidated. Particularly in the smelting and processing sector, China ranks first in the world in the production of over 30 metallurgical products, and accounts for approximately 50% of the global production of 17 mineral products. This signifies that China is not only a major producer of mineral resources but also a leading supplier and key player in the global smelting and processing industry.On September 11th, the national average weekly LNG ex-factory transaction price was 6116.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 212.41 yuan/ton, or 3.6%, compared to last week. On the supply side, due to a reduction in feedstock gas supply, most inland LNG plants had low LNG levels this week, resulting in tight overall inventory. While the pace of ship arrivals slowed this week, the profit margin for offshore gas shipments expanded under high gas prices, leading to relatively active shipments from receiving terminals. Overall, the market supply remained tight. On the demand side, some reserve warehouses in the central and eastern regions conducted restocking operations, boosting demand in surrounding markets. Coupled with the recent positive coal market, transportation gas demand received some support. However, after upstream companies continued to maintain prices, end-user resistance gradually increased, and market trading activity became subdued in the later part of the week. Regarding prices, the contraction in upstream gas supply and high cost support led to a strong price-holding mentality among LNG plants this week; offshore gas prices rose in tandem with domestic gas price increases. Looking ahead to next week, some end-user stockpiling measures have spurred upstream price-supporting sentiment, and LNG prices may rise slightly. It is expected that domestic LNG prices may rise slightly next week, with the regional average weekly transaction price likely to be 6130.22 yuan/ton. The daily price range is likely to be between 6120-6170 yuan/ton. Industry players are watching the bidding situation for feedstock gas directly supplied to factories by PetroChina in the second half of the month.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD seeks direction following Fed-inspired volatility; US Retail Sales to be monitored

Daniel Rogers

Dec 15, 2022 11:32

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is hanging around $1,810.00 in the early Asian session after dramatic fluctuations in response to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy guidance (Fed). The precious metal fluctuated wildly within a range of $1,796 to $1,814 and is now extremely quiet as investors analyze Fed head Jerome Powell's remarks prior to making an informed decision.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a new six-month low of 103.49 as the Federal Reserve opted to proceed with a measured approach to future policy tightening. S&P500 closed Wednesday on a pessimistic note as the Fed's prediction of a higher terminal rate of 5.1% generated a danger of liquidity crunch in the economy, which may exacerbate recession risks. However, the Fed has supplied a diplomatic perspective on recession by stating, "No one knows if a recession will occur or not."

 

In the meantime, 10-year US Treasury rates have declined further to 3.48 percent as Fed monetary policy that is less aggressive has stimulated demand for US Treasury bonds. Thursday's release of U.S. Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored by investors moving ahead. The monthly Retail Sales data (Nov) is anticipated to decrease by 0.1% compared to the prior reading of 1.3% growth. A drop in retail demand will contribute to additional inflation data softening.

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