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A chart summarizing the overnight price movements of international spot platinum and palladium.On February 25th, HP (HPQ.N) stated that its full-year earnings may reach the lower end of its previously forecast range due to tariffs and rising memory chip prices. The stock fell approximately 7% in after-hours trading after closing at $18.20 in New York. Over the past 12 months, the stock has fallen by 48%. HP and other device manufacturers are facing the dual challenges of rising memory chip prices and supply shortages as consumers buy new computers to replace outdated devices and acquire new AI capabilities. The company stated that the memory issue will persist throughout the fiscal year and may extend into the next. HP said it is raising product prices, working to bring in more suppliers, and adjusting some products to reduce memory demand. The company said today that it has made progress in these areas, including completing the certification of new suppliers. HP announced the launch of a multi-year cost-cutting plan aimed at saving the company $1 billion annually by 2028.Japans corporate services price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in January, up from 2.60% in the previous month.Japans corporate services price index fell 0.5% month-on-month in January, compared with 0% in the previous month.February 25th - Traders in the US futures and options markets are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year rather than raise them. The spread of the Covered Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, which is closely linked to Fed policy expectations, is inverting significantly – indicating that traders are beginning to anticipate a longer period of central bank easing. Previously, traders had been betting that the Fed would cut rates twice by 25 basis points before the end of this year and then resume rate hikes in 2027. However, the increasingly heated debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market has prompted them to reassess this expectation. Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated, "The question is how AI will cause inflation. The only aspect of AI that could potentially cause inflation is the construction of data centers and the associated energy demand." Meanwhile, in the spot market, traders lack confidence in how to allocate US Treasuries. JPMorgan Chases latest client survey (for the week ending February 23rd) shows that neutral positions have reached their highest level since the end of 2024.

WTI Remains on the Defensive Near $76, as Central Banks Rekindle Recession Fears and PMIs Are Monitored

Daniel Rogers

Dec 16, 2022 11:48

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Following a reversal from the weekly high to welcome the bears, WTI crude oil licks its wounds near $76.20 on Friday morning. Fearing a recession, the traders of black gold are awaiting the first readings of important economic activity figures from leading economies.

 

In spite of this, the energy benchmark fell the most in over a week as global central banks announced rate increases the day before. The oil market's pessimism was exacerbated by the policymakers' willingness to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time, as well as inflationary concerns. Consequently, economic slowdown worries bolstered the US Dollar's safe-haven demand and weighed on the Oil.

 

Moreover, owing to Beijing's prominence as one of the world's largest consumers of commodities, weak China statistics provided additional support to sellers of black gold. China's Retail Sales dropped to -5.9% in November, compared to -3.6% predicted and -0.5% previously, while Industrial Production came in at 2.2%, compared to 3.3% market predictions and 5.0% earlier readings.

 

In addition, news from Canada weighed on oil prices, as reported by Reuters: "Canada's TC Energy Corporation said it was resuming operations in a stretch of its Keystone pipeline, a week after a spill of more than 14,000 barrels of oil in Kansas caused a shutdown."

 

As a result, oil bears are well-positioned to reclaim control, but await the early readings of the PMIs for the UK, Europe, and the US for the month of December for unambiguous guidance.